Take advantage of short sellers covering their position next month on Supermx and get out. Honest advice.

This post has been edited by chromatino_hex: Dec 29 2020, 10:42 AM

That's what many of them are saying. We will only know in a week or two.

Inari now at 2.70, went 2.72 earlier but strong resistance seen.

I agree with you here.
People see what they want to see, no matter the signs. As you said, the slow decline is ominous.

Side bets if TG or SPMX will breach the 6.00 mark today.

The opportunity cost of being stuck in Supermx isn’t worth it.

Share prices descending + warrants

Current play is warrants at work.

Next support line
Topglov: 5.7
Supermax: 4.4

Next year RSS is lifted, so another new reason.

The way it is dropping is scary, when the profits are still more than the previous quarters.

based on this reasoning, kossan should be better since it only went up abount 200% so far..

Not much retailers left in gloves, so we are now seeing more big boys getting burn from setting own trap?

Even among the bears, you are now Papa Bear.

That's ugly.
Makes me wonder if there are institutions currently disposing.

This Bursa so boring... The earlier selling down frenzy just stop. Have to wait for 4:30pm show, otherwise will have to wait for tmr morning to collect more.

The fair value is calculated based on 2023 forward PE (when the ASP has normalized). Not based on %increase/decrease.
Didnt calculate for kossan yet, price still too high, I can do my homework next 6 months/1year when I have more updated data.

Value investors play it safe

Blame on MacQuarie SELL call on OR its call warrants??

C69 was in the money ...

Conversion price 2.293
Conversion 8 for 1
Died on 18th Dec. Closing price is 6.64

1. How many warrants that would MACQ stand to lose?

This warrant was issued Feb 2020

See the charts...





heaviest volume is 11th March. Low of 12 sen. Closed at 14 sen.

For structured warrants, ask yourself, how many punters, how many buy and hold?

Did they have a chance to cash out and instead of hold till expiry? Answer is YES. With a 8:1 conversion, punter would have made so much more if they sold it in the market than holding till expiry.

So if punters/buyers have the option of cashing out for a bigger profit, why would they hold until expiry?

Maybe some did... but if you look at the charts ... volume wasn't there to even suggest that MACQ would lose its pants ...

All in giving a benefit of doubt... say MACQ would lose XXX money.

How much ? 5 million? 10 million?



2. MACQ is a pro in the structured warrant. It sells so many others warrants. Warrants that they make $$$$$$$$$.

Let's examine:

Okay , this is C1A ... which is also issued by MACQ



hopelessly out of money..... punter buy ... got very, very, very good chance if punter intention is to buy and hold till die, you will lose money.

Now C1A is relatively new.... listed 17 Nov 2020..



21 million shares done on that listing day ....

How about trying to count Macquarie's profit instead?


Any others call warrants on TG beside C1A from MACQ?

2) C1B. Exercise price 8.88 conversion 30:1
3) C76. Exercise price 4.667 conversion 6:1
4) C79 Exercise price 8.667 conversion 7.33:1
5) C80 Exercise price 6.627 conversion 7.33:1
6) C85 Exercise price 10:33 conversion 6.67:1
7) C89 Exercise price 12.667 conversion 13.33:1
8) C90 Exercise price 13.33 conversion 13.33:1
9) C91 Exercise price 15.00 conversion 16.66:1


So counting C69 ... there are 10 Call warrants from MACQ ....

MACQ lost 1 .... win 9 ....

Yup... that's how good MacQ is in the structured warrant market .... it's so lopsided.

Ask the logical question la... would MACQ fudge one call warrant (which we clearly cannot say that MACQ will lose all) by manipulating the shorts when it's the KING in the market?


If you still insist ... better don't trade or invest in stocks like TOPG.

Why?

Trust me .... come next year .... after the current outstanding warrants expire, they will issue many more call warrants. They are the bankers.....they will still be there.

If they are still there ... you still want to touch TG ah?

Doesn't make sense to me!

This post has been edited by Boon3: Dec 29 2020, 11:26 AM

let's see what happens in pm session.

the selling may intensify... or recover?

we then have an idea what will come next 2 days before the year close.


do we know if there is any margin call from any broker for gloves?

small gloves are just as bad if not worse than big ones!

[quote=HereToLearn,Dec 29 2020, 11:01 AM]
The fair value is calculated based on 2023 forward PE (when the ASP has normalized). Not based on %increase/decrease.
Didnt calculate for kossan yet, price still too high, I can do my homework next 6 months/1year when I have more updated data.

Why calculate based on 2023? 2020 also not over yet, you still have 2021 and 2022. Lots of things can happen in between those years. I am happy if i can even see 6 months ahead for this covid pandemic outcome.
On a brighter note, MGRC is still on its merry way up

anyone watch the many homily chart videos on youtube?
the 'teachers' said supermax and top glove are left with mostly retailers - represented by the green.

The value will decay very quickly as time passes. I dont want to fight against the value decay. No balls

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Dec 29 2020, 11:13 AM

I try and wait for the bottom to be confirmed I guess.