Because almost everyone knows there is no short squeezing here, just buy high sell higher

No worries, just compare malaysian banks with banks etf, singapore banks. Malaysian banks underperforming them a lot. And with their PE and PBs at historical low.
But not all banks are cheap, like PBB is ridiculously expensive IMO. Do your own DD

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 29 2021, 09:36 AM

Everything is dropping, but possible to drop more. S&P500 weekly chart is quite overbought

https://www.google.com/search?q=vaneck+vect...chrome&ie=UTF-8
This semicon ETF was dropping from 21 Jan, but just rebounded yesterday

https://www.google.com/search?q=tsmc+share+...chrome&ie=UTF-8
TSMC dropping since 21 Jan, still no sign of rebounding, but rebounded yesterday in nyse exchange

https://www.google.com/search?ei=W88TYLTqN9...&sclient=psy-ab

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 29 2021, 05:06 PM

Maybe cause the entire S&P500, Nasdaq and DJIA are quite overbought

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 29 2021, 08:49 PM

Which is why I say there is no significant short squeezing here, but rather a buy high with the hope to sell higher to the next guy scenario before the time bomb explodes, and we all know the timeframe for this time bomb.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hart...t-target-prices
Hartalega Holdings Bhd’s earnings growth is expected to remain strong in 2021, according to investment analysts, but some of them have trimmed their target prices (TPs) considering the supply-demand conditions and average selling prices (ASPs) to normalise not far from now.

Like we discussed long ago, analysts will have to continue to lower TP over time because TP is given based on next 12-18 months, next quarter TP will be even lower and so on. It just started dropping ahead of analysts' TP lowering because people knew about this (maybe because it is an extremely crowded trade, hence there were a lot of pros like Mr Boon studied it and signaled the red flag early)

The longer you hold, the higher the risk you are taking not being able to pass it to the next guy.

Hence, the price should be adjusted down with time as the risk is increasing over time UNTIL it has fully reflected the earnings normalization beyond 2022, then it is good to go in.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 30 2021, 06:32 PM

the shorties are now going after this counter.

I think they are wise to short this counter, PBB shot up just because of bonus splits... Also, it is one of the most premium banks in the market. Super expensive compared to other banks,
In fact, it is wise to short all bank counters when their next QRs are still going to be under pressured (moratorium was extended until Dec, the cash flow was limited for them to make new loan, confirm still no significant earnings growth) especially when there is no buying interest now for banks. Shorting the banks can EASILY trigger panic for uninformed investors, when the next QR is out.
AIYA, siao liao these sohai banks' earnings still havent go back to pre-covid meh? DIE LIAO, USELESS CON COUNTERS, SELL AH!!

Source for under-pressured QR: https://themalaysianreserve.com/2021/01/27/...rnings-in-4q20/

Yes their GIL is one of the lowest with one of the highest ROE. But to me, PBB is just too pricey to buy, when there are better bank counters out there in the market.

banks can never go wrong, sure make big profit?

Banks went bad with the loan loss provisioning and OPR cut, reflected in their last 2 QRs. Some say will cut again, some say wont. If OPR if cut again, BIMB and ABMB will be affected the most. The next upcoming QR in Feb is also going to be underpressured as mentioned above, with small improvements shown below
The NIM is recovering, and loan loss provision should be less already especially for the banks that front loaded a lot last 2 quarters. IF cut again, NIM will take sometime to recover again, but the impact will be smaller if cut again (only .25) when last year was a 1.25 (5 times that the upcoming potential cut) in 8 months period (3 to 1.75). Also, this low loan interest environment will not last too long, OPR is expected to hike in 2021Q4.

Source OPR HIKE: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-banking-sector
When it rises, sectors with abnormally inflated valuation will definitely start falling down IF they havent fall before OPR starts hiking.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 30 2021, 09:09 PM

LOL, bought abit of ambank knowing that the worse is over for banks so gave a higher entry than march low - which is still below my FA entry, but only to see it plunge lower

But I think my entry timing was fcked, I bought when US index was in overbought territory, I should have waited for US stocks to plunge and enter lower

Now considering some reits too

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 30 2021, 11:09 PM

Also looking at plantation, the long forgotten sector

Looking at a few, but with US index plunging, I dont dare to fire bullet, maybe wait US index plunge a bit more 1st

I think KLSE is almost in the oversold region, just that US in the overbought zone might affect us indirectly too

He is saying the market is still sky high.

US valuation is very expensive. The survey did by BofA shows that global fund manager is positioning heavily on emerging market (as of Jan 2021), maybe because US market is too expensive

Bad only have the chance to buy low, when good, already expensive and chase high

Because his FA is not forward looking enough, his FA is on peak earnings and does not account for the almost inevitable earnings drop after that

Or maybe, his FA is biased like what mentioned below

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 31 2021, 01:43 PM

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/561110
Tuesday Mestron GG

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2021...rs-receive-jabs
Finally started... Kedah

I like the advice 10/10, treating it as number will get rid of a lot of emotion.

Dont say so lol, the bubble might not pop, but might deflate. Deflating is painful enough if the entry price is high.

Hahaha, I am working :'). Have to submit things before deadline. Curi tulang here sometimes.

I totally agree with you on this. But when the dotcom bubble burst, nothing was spared. Value stocks dropped too despite less.

Most prolly because of the sentiment shift. IF somehow we have a rotational play this time with no bubbles popping, but a slow bubble deflation that rotates the fund to a different sector (while keep the index alive), then maybe we wont be experiencing a crash.

But US stocks are too overvalued, a crash might not happen, but a correction is definitely inevitable. Just hoping that the correction will not affect our market sentiment here.

Good news, I did not hear about MCO extension in PM' speech just now, also Prihatin wilayah announced. Can someone verify?

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Feb 1 2021, 02:19 AM

A bit hard

RD' portfolio top 3 most concentrated sectors: 55.8% in the finance sector, 15.3% in consumer discretionary and 12.8% in consumer staples
https://finbox.com/ideas/ray-dalio

3 largest holdings are ETFs if anyone is interested: SPY, gold etf, emerging market etf

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Feb 1 2021, 02:31 AM

Thanks, no wonder I did not hear anything about MCO

We can just track US daily new cases to know if the vacs are effective, since they start jabbing earlier

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Feb 1 2021, 09:53 AM

But singapore covid cases are already low to start with though, how do we know if it is effective? When they no longer need to wear their masks going out?

Not going to copy, but use their change in allocation as indicators.

RD has been selling SPY, China ETFs and buying EM ETFs.

Survey conducted by BofA too shows that fund managers
- increased their stakes in industrial, EMs, materials, commodities, discretionary, banks
- decreased their cash positions, staples, bonds, healthcare, energy and tech