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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 27 2021, 10:23 AM)
wait, but the warrant for Kpower was 5 years later...so the dilution will be 5 years later right?
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You can exercise it whenever you want if the current stock price is above the strike price of the warrant.

So if it continues flying, people can start exercising it, and the earnings dilution will be spectacular.

If its growth can offset the dilution, then should be no problem, just my 2 cents. But looking at Serbadk 2 warrants for every 5 shares holding up its share price, we know that the growth really needs to be very spectacular to be able fly above 2.62 (strike price), which means the upside is most likely capped at 2.62

this is the limited upside I am talking about sorry for the confusion

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 27 2021, 10:38 AM
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 27 2021, 10:38 AM)
So the best thing to do is just to trade and sell the warrants instead of exercising it right?
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Can keep few days for multiple limit ups, then sell. Operators gorenging wa

Unless you foresee the growth will be spectacular.
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jan 27 2021, 11:01 AM)
as an investment banker who specialise in M&A, if i use PE to justify my purchase, i will be fired on the spot by my boss.....
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Opps my bad,

if PB, one could go for AMBANK, CIMB, MBSB, AFFIN, ABMB.

MBSB and AFFIN's ROEs are ridiculously low.

I think AMBANK and ABMB offer quite a nice balance for PB (low), PE (low) and ROE (low - ideally higher better). Thoughts? Happy to learn from IB

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 27 2021, 11:12 AM
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Jan 27 2021, 11:20 AM)
That perhaps is one reason.

I'd like to add that, Kpower & SCIB may look more attractive to investors due to net cash, whilst Serba is net debt.

Kpower & SCIB being turnaround companies may have more growth than Serba. Easier for smaller cap companies like Kpower & SCIB to double in market cap than bigger cap Serba.
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TRUE, but I think all the growth has been reflected in its spectacular 1xxx% increase in a year.

Small cap is always the best, easy to double the market cap flex.gif
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jan 27 2021, 11:24 AM)
actually you are not wrong, in fact, very good for a starter to be honest.

methodologies you used, depends on the nature of the business.

but a yardstick for us is that, we normally use EV/EBITDA, multiple of EBITDA, quality of earnings, cash flows, EBIT, EBIDA, PBT etc etc.

we normally build a financial model of the business of our own, creating a DCF, LBO model etc, depending on what we're doing, all the way until proforma cash flow statement, profit and loss as well as balance sheet.

from there, we will also have comparable companies analysis, what we call COMPS, scope of the comps depends on which exchange it is listed, availability of their info, relevance of their business vs ours (our client), how far are they trading. we typically do 2 COMPS or comparable companies analysis (CCA), trading comps and peers (typically non-listed too) to get a full picture of the industry. again, these COMPS are to compare the financial metrics and other factors to quantify performance or determine valuation.

Highly suggest you read the following:

VALUATION: ART, SCIENCE OR MAGIC? by Damodaran
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfil...ayDubai2017.pdf

Added his seminar before, really an eye opener for me.
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WOW, damn i am not sure if I will ever reach your level. Well, never try to beat a professional boxer in a ring.


QUOTE(tehoice @ Jan 27 2021, 11:26 AM)
oh ya, not to forget, when we examine the quality of earnings, we look at line by line, substracting extraordinary earnings, we see from all angles, including one off gain/loss, anything that's not normal, tax planning etc. we then normalise the profit thereon.
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Yeah definitely, removing the one off gain/loss is important as it is only temporary

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 27 2021, 11:42 AM
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 11:42 AM

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lauwenhan, well looks like I am not entirely right/wrong lol and congrats on your bet notworthy.gif

No pump and dump like gloves back for then for all techs, but only minor dump in genetec, hightec and pmbtec.

Chip shortage really pushing tech index hard. But i still think that malaysia tech is still too expensive. Semicond share holders can monitor TSMC and VanEck Semicond ETF,
if suddenly gap down a lot, then can start dumping, if gap up can start chasing for quick kill.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 27 2021, 11:44 AM
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ Jan 27 2021, 01:07 PM)
So your bet on RHB and AMBANK? These 2 almost merged some time back. I think AMBANK can be a speculative merger play. But key is does it have more room to drop before someone buys it. Hell, I am hoping one day Maybank buys CIMB...
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I dont have RHB, was just sharing that RHB could be one of the better buys
HereToLearn
post Jan 28 2021, 12:51 AM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 27 2021, 04:11 PM)
this 1 too deep.... need some pro to advise.....
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Other KPOWER shareholders can have a look

So I had a quick look into KPOWER warrant since I am free, I just noticed its exercise price is only RM2.5...
So basically anyone who bought early can now exercise if they want to since the warrants are free anyway if they believe in the long term value of the stocks. As of current price, they wouldnt exercise it and dump it to the market because selling warrant itself is .9, exercise and then selling it at market is only worth it if KPOWER is above RM3.4. Unless the warrant price goes up/down more, then different case.

So if they do that, the earnings will be diluted. By how much? 1 pie used to be divided by 3, now it is by 4, so basically increasing the NOSH by 33% from
452331000 to 603,105,529 (150774529 from warrants), so your new PE can be easily increased by 33%, which is at about PE 36 based on 2021 NP projection and 23 based on 2022NP projection.

If you think you are ok with that PE, then just hold everything. It is not cheap, but not too expensive either IMO - can choose to continue riding the wave until downtrending signal appears if you are more adventurous, but note that serbadk which is also growing (although not as fast, and has a lot of debt) only have Forward PE of 7.1 (without warrant), PE 9.1 (with possible warrant dilution, which is unlikely as of current share price).

MY FA comments on KPOWER; I hope you will be able to sell at profit this time, and dont get trapped like how u did in gloves
I would also like to add that at current valuation, kpower is even more expensive than most gloves except harta based on both 2021 and 2022 projected NP, and yes the 1xxx% rise in kpower has most prolly fully reflected all the growth potential in the next 2-3 years
I currently have 0 position in both kpower and gloves, so you can take my comments as purely informative, not manipulative.


I cannot comment on SCIB because dont have analyst NP projection, and I am not at that level to do NP projection

QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 28 2021, 12:09 AM)
user posted image

If this drops, it is going to be spectacular. 50% crash incoming
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Its ok, all you shares are free anyway.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 28 2021, 01:05 AM
HereToLearn
post Jan 28 2021, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jan 28 2021, 12:10 PM)
US big drop last night...

All these markets have correlation.
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 28 2021, 12:11 PM)
think it is just taking a cue from wall street.

dow -633, nasdaq -2.6%. fed rates unchanged, no bonds buyback.

if they fall another 2% tonight, something to watch.

...

something interesting here... china now has labor shortage.

forced labor foreign workers maybe can go to work in china?! tongue.gif
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/china-repor...ry-workers.html
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Malaysia index is down since 16 Dec. KLCI has been carried by local institutions and retailers. Foreign holding in KLCI is at a very low rate already, Hope no impact on us.
HereToLearn
post Jan 28 2021, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 28 2021, 12:19 PM)
Shielded by the public holiday. Lucky us.

On a more serious note, the political situation is one of the largest factors behind the drop in FDI. We already have the biggest FDI drop in ASEAN if memory serves me right.
Don't see that clearing up anytime soon.
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I agree, this is why the downside to our index is relatively lesser than others because they have not much left to sell.

And, it also offers a good opportunity to buy some undervalued stocks in the anticipation that they will come back after election
HereToLearn
post Jan 28 2021, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 28 2021, 12:30 PM)
Question here is, how many will come back?
Even in our ASEAN geared funds, Vietnam and Indonesia are the preferred options among most fund managers I've chatted with. Small sample size I know.
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When the valuations are becoming absurd there, they will definitely come back once political stability is achieved
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post Jan 28 2021, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Jan 28 2021, 05:39 PM)
Yes, shd be interesting to see what's gonna happen in Bursa. Now with #retailers unite going on and many telegrams and Reddit groups being formed. Just see the stats on mkt participations from Bursa. Retailers are bigger than FF and FI on some days.
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Why choose tg? Why not kossan? Kossan has lower float (43.% vs 58.2%) and the price has dropped more from peak (topglov merely dropped a 36%, kossan dropped 56%).

With kossan having a smaller market cap and float, it is much easier to be pushed. Also the short squeeze pain if happens, is almost insignificant to the IBs.

I feel like this will be another private glove chat room disaster, that only benefits the large sharks who trapped high to offload to small retailers. Why so? because the maximum the IBs have to buy is 4%, and the float is like 43% or 58%, so the remaining 39% or 54% sell to who? sell to the late party retailers?

If tomorrow somehow miraculously spikes up, I strongly advise retailers to lock in gains to at least secure back the capital, and leave only the gains to run, if really want to be a part of this

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 28 2021, 06:17 PM
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post Jan 28 2021, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Jan 28 2021, 06:23 PM)
GME outstanding shares is 69 mil only.

Even retailers unite to buy and manage to punish via short squeeze, in the process retailers that play the musical chair may become the victim themselves when not manage to get out in time.

When short squeeze happens and short finish covering, the fall is likely to be dramatically as well.
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Exactly, I have the numbers. This is just a game of buying and selling higher to the next retailers after the short covering, not really doing much to the short sellers because they only shorted a tiny fair bit compared to the total floats. Also bear in mind that RSS only started in 1 Jan, the throw from 9.6 (peak) to 6.12 (end of Dec 2020) was not due to short selling, merely investors/traders throwing.

Maybe they threw in the anticipation of vaccine, maybe the threw because of fear.

Also note that covid cases are dropping already.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
ASP wont stay elevated long, after 1H2021, ASP will start normalizing.

If you are planning to be part of this game tomorrow, please secure your capital and only let the profits run, because it is not going to end well

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 28 2021, 06:14 PM)
Why choose tg? Why not kossan? Kossan has lower float (43.% vs 58.2%) and the price has dropped more from peak (topglov merely dropped a 36%, kossan dropped 56%).

With kossan having a smaller market cap and float, it is much easier to be pushed. Also the short squeeze pain if happens, is almost insignificant to the IBs.

I feel like this will be another private glove chat room disaster, that only benefits the large sharks who trapped high to offload to small retailers. Why so? because the maximum the IBs have to buy is 4%, and the float is like 43% or 58%, so the remaining 39% or 54% sell to who? sell to the late party retailers?

If tomorrow somehow miraculously spikes up, I strongly advise retailers to lock in gains to at least secure back the capital, and leave only the gains to run, if really want to be a part of this
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This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 28 2021, 06:33 PM
HereToLearn
post Jan 29 2021, 12:29 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 29 2021, 12:12 AM)
I backed my thesis on bursa tech and semiconductor with both quantitative and qualitative analysis. With all relevant sources, trade reports, and analyst reports, technical analysis, market sentiment. Meanwhile, all I can see on BursaBets is baseless claims to replicate the GameStop squeeze when there’s not enough naked shorts to force the squeeze for TopGlove in the first place. It’s not the same
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Totally agreed on the bolded part. If the price rises enough for mr koon to dispose ALL his shares, retailers will get fcked once more.

QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 29 2021, 12:16 AM)
Yeah GameStop is looking like the August glove crash. Retailers getting cocky - check. Retailers flocking to an overcrowded stock -check. Same with glove in august
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Retailers getting cocky - check. Retailers flocking to an overcrowded stock -check, this is exactly what is happening in the tech sector though
HereToLearn
post Jan 29 2021, 09:06 AM

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Those who queued at limit up and got cheap tickets. Congrats, those who queued later are not suffering -7%. From +15 to +7%... This is not a short squeeze. This is a plan orchestrated by those who trapped high...
HereToLearn
post Jan 29 2021, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Jan 29 2021, 09:03 AM)
chase high sell higher rclxm9.gif
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ONLY IF they manage to sell higher, then can celebrate rclxm9.gif . No one would want to baghold it with ASP normalizing soon
HereToLearn
post Jan 29 2021, 09:12 AM

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Those who managed to queue really early and get cheap this morning, should start taking profit.
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post Jan 29 2021, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Jan 29 2021, 09:15 AM)
Sorry ah, guys...I don't understand what's going on...are you saying now gloves prices going up for a short while only and then later people will start selling?
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They are already selling lol. Started selling from 9.01am from +15% to +9%. Those who got in a tiny bit late is now -6%.

Not sure if Mr Koon manage to got out

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 29 2021, 09:17 AM
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post Jan 29 2021, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 29 2021, 09:19 AM)
crazy.....I'm also out from TG........sold at RM 6.80 with minor profit...

See how the situation 1st.....
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Show is over. Bursabets dont have diamond hands
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post Jan 29 2021, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(SK_SK_001 @ Jan 29 2021, 09:21 AM)
Yo I don't see any massive drop in tech stocks or banking stocks ??

Any ideas cause i learn in this forum when others are distracted by emotions by certain counters >> that's when we can do shopping when everybody is elsewhere piling in ?

Any sector related cheap pick-ups ?
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Any ideas cause i learn in this forum when others are distracted by emotions by certain counters >> that's when we can do shopping when everybody is elsewhere piling in ?
Because no one is selling other stocks to jump onto this 'short selling' bandwagon.


Any sector related cheap pick-ups ?
Finance counters

Malaysian analysts have been upgrading Malaysian banks' TP.
Covid new daily cases have been dropping since Jan 8.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/w...hs/#daily-cases

US banks will do buybacks by end of March.

Wait for it to drop lower (possible to go lower because all money is still in the techs) and buy when there's no interest

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