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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Sep 17 2021, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 17 2021, 03:07 PM)
Did someone mentioned asp, profit likely to waterfall in Q3? Sooner than expected.
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IMO, i dont think it is "sooner than expected", it is expected. Almost all analysts stated back in 2020 that ASPs will peak in 1H2021. Just some refused to listen/didnt believe the analysts' profit projection.
HereToLearn
post Sep 20 2021, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 20 2021, 11:02 AM)
During shortage, users tend to overstock and over order, hoarding among speculators are common; like most shortage, will end in oversupply. It is a matter of how much and how soon.
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Several sources telling semicon meltdown/crash in 2023. Like gloves bull run, just have to get out much much early before that. Gloves share price peaked roughly 9m-1y before ASP drops.
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post Sep 20 2021, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(qsrt1616 @ Sep 20 2021, 11:54 AM)
i thought you took profit already?
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Didnt even buy any tech lol, just see them soaring and waving goodbye bye.gif
HereToLearn
post Sep 20 2021, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(qsrt1616 @ Sep 20 2021, 12:11 PM)
yeah lol told u to buy since last year. tech is like this one. If it is up, you hold for a long time. If it starts going down, you wait forever and dont do anything. The tech cycle reverses over a very long time horizon. Meaning you need to wait years for another correction or rebound. Basically any reversal
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Yeah I missed it doh.gif, I read into the analysts' reports showing that the projected NP until 2023 follows a log plot, increases at rapidly decreasing trend. So, I didnt have the guts to enter as the PE was already high. Obviously, I was the dumb one. But, at least I learn something from here.

IMO, it is way too risky to get in now, knowing that semiconductor oversupply will come in 2023. Seeing how gloves crash so badly is a good reminder for all of us not to be greedy.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 20 2021, 12:27 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 21 2021, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Sep 21 2021, 10:20 AM)
gloves continue their meltdown
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Topglov FY2024 NP projection was out yesterday, projected that FY2024 NP is lower than FY2023 NP.

FY2024 PE 20ish
HereToLearn
post Sep 22 2021, 01:19 PM

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https://umno-online.my/2021/09/21/perkenalk...k-rakyat-najib/
HereToLearn
post Sep 30 2021, 04:50 PM

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With more news coverage on semiconductor oversupply/overcapacity in 2023, will it break next week?

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HereToLearn
post Oct 6 2021, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2021, 10:09 AM)
I was guessing this morning, basing on assumption of fully recovery and income from newer assets, my blunt guess is 40 sen DPU expectation is not unreasonable and given that the stock hadn't really rolled off the cliff, I guess it's wise to just hold the stock.

New at this.. so would you say my reasoning is too optimistic?
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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Oct 6 2021, 10:17 AM)
I would think os as well, that is what I intend to do.
REITs because I consider them as more FI it is not a stock that should be traded often. The volatility just isn't there compared to other stocks, especially the small caps, so people who get into REITs tend to sit on them for a longer period of time in comparison.

ASB made Petronas renew the lease to 2034 before they started picking up the shares so there should be some stability for the long term.
I think it will come back. It is the sitting period now. One worry with downtown KL properties is the exposure to a potential office space glut. That was a real risk before the pandemic and with all the new spaces opening up. TRX for example. With the pandemic and the WFH wave, the question now is how bad the glut will be?
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PETRONAS now practices 50% WFH 50% WIO from 1 Oct onwards (latest by 1 Nov giving employees a grace period of a month), Suria KLCC traffic might be continue staying slightly lower than pre-pandemic. Not sure how much %profit coming from Suria, if it is only a small portion it could be insignificant

QUOTE(qsrt1616 @ Oct 6 2021, 04:28 PM)
If on October 10, Bursa tech index I don't see 100, I dump almost all and keep MPI only

Haha
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Where to next after 10 Oct (or earlier if it reaches 100)? Keep cash or rotate?

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Oct 6 2021, 05:26 PM
HereToLearn
post Oct 7 2021, 12:09 PM

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Bearish divergence for DJIA, NASDAQ

Still holding US stocks or start selling?

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HereToLearn
post Oct 7 2021, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Oct 7 2021, 12:41 PM)
So bursa follows next?
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Possibly, a lot of the counters showing the same bearish divergence now, but let's see what happens next
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post Oct 8 2021, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 8 2021, 09:09 AM)
So tell me, since you are here to learn... what are the pros and cons of following such a strategy?

edit:

sine you had focused on semi conductors index, what was your top stock pick in that sector...

and during this period of divergence, how exactly did the stock perform?
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Cons:
1. a lagging indicator (definitely no chance to buy at close to lowest, and sell to close to peak)
2. not applicable to all charts (dont show divergence all the time, might miss a good opportunity to buy/sell if only relying on this)
3. specifically for this case, need to wait for weeks only to see if it works cause it is a weekly chart

Top pick, no idea

HereToLearn
post Oct 16 2021, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 16 2021, 09:37 AM)
HereToLearn

since I had searched those stocks via yahoo finance, I can easily refer back at a quick glance...

the prices during that 'divergence'..

1. Intel  stock closing price on 6th Oct = 53.98
2. NVIDIA  stock closing price on 6th Oct = 207
3. Micron tech  stock closing price on 6th Oct = 69.94
4. AMD  stock closing price on 6th Oct = 103.64
5. Qualcom  stock closing price on 6th Oct =  128.06
6. Texas Ins  stock closing price on 6th Oct = 194.39

prices right now...

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wink.gif
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Please update again after a month
HereToLearn
post Nov 2 2021, 11:03 AM

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Tech hit 100. Congrats lauwenhan
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post Nov 26 2021, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 26 2021, 02:31 PM)
kesian those who bought topglove, serbadk & ATAIMS together
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But those who bought early this morning is in decent profits. Just need to know when to run
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post Nov 29 2021, 04:09 PM

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China closing price lower than opening price (+5% though)
but malaysia LU lol, wasnt expecting this

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This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 29 2021, 04:10 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 29 2021, 04:13 PM

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Pump and dump incoming?
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post Nov 29 2021, 04:25 PM

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Congrats to u though, lauwenhan good call

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 29 2021, 04:25 PM

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