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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Jan 25 2021, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Jan 25 2021, 12:17 PM)
What do you mean by cannot go back to 15-20c? Right now is super cycle because of pandemic. Everything will reset sooner or later. Although NGC1.5 is coming, but Hartalega is not the fastest when it comes to expansion.
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I have no vested interest in gloves, because it is still not cheap enough for me to buy. SO everyone here can take my comments as neutral and purely informative.

ASP will drop, and will drop very heavily, but it will not drop to pre-pandemic level because of the heightened health awareness

Similar to you, I wont buy gloves at this price because it is a time bomb in my opinion as ASP will definitely drop soon.
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post Jan 25 2021, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 25 2021, 12:52 PM)
Good to see someone sticking to their investment strategy regardless of season.  thumbsup.gif
With all the red today, managed to find any bargains to pick up?
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Not buying anything, drop more than 10-20% from my entry only buy if the FA is still intact
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post Jan 25 2021, 03:49 PM

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KLCI going to retest support at 1560
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post Jan 25 2021, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jan 25 2021, 04:02 PM)
1172 down only 191 up

so people sell due to covid cases and fear of lockdown?
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Most likely

QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Jan 25 2021, 04:02 PM)
So much red, it's amazing...where are all of you guys who have been keeping cash to buy at discounts, lol...this is quite a sale liao, right?
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Not low enough, if people want to sell, dont be hurry to catch their falling knives. Let the day traders sell 1st, if low enough to trigger others' cut loss point, will dive more.
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post Jan 25 2021, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(SGSuser @ Jan 25 2021, 05:33 PM)
my limited warchest is standing by for serbadk in case it drops lower  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif

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Serbadk is actually a very good buy for long term, buying at this price wont go wrong. Forward2022 PE 7 (havent account for the PP dilution, and its warrant when exercised), with 2 warrants every 5 shares, thats actually a lot. LIKE REALLY A LOT. Imagine increasing the NOSH by 40%, this will change the forward2022 PE from 7 to 10, which is actually still ok to buy.

But it is just that its PP is getting lower each time. What if the PP becomes lower next round? Wont you be paying extra again? So in the short term, it could go lower. Which is why I said to queue lower despite having very good long term outlook. Just trying to squeeze the most out of it.

It is undoubtedly a very good stock thumbsup.gif

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post Jan 25 2021, 06:11 PM

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More explosive results coming soon for gloves counters. Harta NP for FY2022 is expected to be 3159m, and 1857m in FY2023.

FY2023 is somewhere in CY2022. Still have a 1 full year to enjoy the uptrend unless market starts pricing it in advance again. Like how the tech is being priced currently, way way in advance, until I cannot see the light.
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post Jan 25 2021, 07:18 PM

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http://ptttube.com/watch338898_587.html
Not sure if this is the same tropicana. IF it is the same, whoever has tropicana share, run

Link updated

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 25 2021, 07:23 PM
HereToLearn
post Jan 25 2021, 07:28 PM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ Jan 25 2021, 07:24 PM)
... I thought you posted a porn link... lol. I have tropicana bond, heavily vested. So if the company is in trouble, then... that's why I am rooting for Top Glove... haha.
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Hahaha, it opened another video after i finished watching the old one, sorry for the wrong link LOL

Bond is ok, as long as dont go bankrupt, you will be fine
HereToLearn
post Jan 25 2021, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(greyPJ @ Jan 25 2021, 07:44 PM)
i think this one very very old video.
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Is it? Damn I am slow. Sorry for the confusion created. I did not check when was this video posted.
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post Jan 26 2021, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(wts6819 @ Jan 26 2021, 09:23 AM)
Malaysian mindset.
PBB Price 20.00 = So expensive, don't want buy.
PBB Price 4:00 = So cheap, buy buy buy.

Don't they know the profit/loss is depending on their invested amount? doh.gif
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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jan 26 2021, 09:24 AM)
not much growth. but our thinking doesnt matter. 

market think it is cheap after bonus split so continue goes up LOL
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We are in an epic bubble that valuation is not important

JFtech - BI Fly
SCIB - BI Fly
Scientex - BI Fly
Kpower- BI Fly

Btw KLFI just broke 15000, up 4.6%
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post Jan 26 2021, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 26 2021, 09:34 AM)
Look at Gamestop and Bionano Genomics's 1 month chart and I confirm you will sell everything in preparation of a crash and lose faith in market efficiency

Malaysian market in comparison is still pretty efficient and does not have crazy valuations. But our market will still drop in tandem with US market which is bad news
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GAMESTOP lol, that legendary stock, up 100% in a day, then dropped all the way back to +18%, those penthouse is now sitting at a paper loss of 40-50% in a day
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post Jan 26 2021, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 26 2021, 09:38 AM)
Scientex and Kpower are pretty good fundamentally speaking. Scientex always beats earnings every quarter since their IPO and Kpower has steady revenue stream from their wide diversifications. Possible future blue chip
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But there should be no reason for it to suddenly fly just because of of stock splitting... the FA remains the same with and without BI.

Everyone investing/trading now is always ready on that 'sell' button, once the thing tumbles down, everyone will spam that 'sell' button
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post Jan 26 2021, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(BliitzkrieG @ Jan 26 2021, 04:58 PM)
gloves are inverse of all other stocks.
bad sentiment and news for the country means good for gloves (mco,darurat) and vice versa for recovery stocks. rclxub.gif
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Dont say like that bro, today banks are not doing a lot better than gloves also, not really negative correlation. All money rotated into techs. Until the tech bursts, value stocks are hopeless, unless there is a catalyst coming back.

HLG recently just upgraded TPs for a few banks. CIMB from 3.65 to 4.35, ABMB from 2.6 to 2.9. TP cannot pakai, but you can see that HLG analyst is slowly turning bullish on banks.
Some of the banks are almost back to march-19 low, banks are definitely in a much better condition now than march, get ready to deploy.
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post Jan 26 2021, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 26 2021, 06:50 PM)
If most are holding, who is doing all the selling ?  At a lower and lower price from October ..
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Well said

QUOTE(rotloi @ Jan 26 2021, 06:56 PM)
Public bank 1 lot rm 5 ok ??? Lol ayam desperate no money
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Premium as fck comparatively to other banks. Too exp IMO. You can get better value per price banks other than PBB. Operators goreng PBB, you pay for PBB at this price, the growth will be a lot lesser when the economy recovers.

PBB is like harta, premium as fck

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 26 2021, 07:02 PM
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post Jan 27 2021, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(halotaikor. @ Jan 27 2021, 02:34 AM)
it seems everybody is trading in bursa. can tell me what bursa stock i can buy and hold for long term?
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Go for cheap banks like ambank, rhbbank
Downside comparatively
Ambank - non KLCI, not as blue
Rhbbank - did not drop as much as ambank during this pullback, and not very far away from its precovid price (limited upside)

QUOTE(New Klang @ Jan 27 2021, 08:43 AM)
Which broker did you use?

How much invested?

What is the TP?

What is the outlook of Bursa tech stocks today?
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The thing is this thing has 0 fundamentals, it is all sentiment and momentum. When it works, it works well. When it doesnt, it fails miserably. This is buy high sell higher, but unlike bursa where u buy high sell higher to the next idiot. This one you sell higher to institution because they shorted too damn much.

WSB TP 1000, if u want to be safe - TP below that,
a safe and more conservative TP would be 500, if you lose from this point, it might drop all the way to <100, thats your reward-risk ratio

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 27 2021, 09:33 AM
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 27 2021, 09:32 AM)
You bought too? Congrats bro we makin’ some money while sleeping

Also Chamath Palipitiya bought GameStop last night. He is a very famous venture capitalist and has significant influence within the industry. It was freaking insane when he tweeted that he bought hundred K worth of call options

Edit: cannot for the life of me spell Chamath’s full name properly
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Maybe that turned the tide, it was +100% dropped to +20% the day before. If later no more catalyst when the momentum is loss, we will be in deep red. always ready to spam the sell. This thing has 0 fundamentals to back up the share price
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 27 2021, 09:31 AM)
Go for cheap banks like ambank, rhbbank
Downside comparatively
Ambank - non KLCI, not as blue
Rhbbank - did not drop as much as ambank during this pullback, and not very far away from its precovid price (limited upside)

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Why these 2 are the safer bets for banks IMO?
Ambank
Projected PE as of current share price of 3.18 is 7.18 in FY2021 and 7.19 in FY2022 (no data for FY2023 yet, expecting increase with economy expansion later)
5y Historical PE range is 7.95 - 10.62. Your safety margin is HUGE in terms of FA.

RHB
Projected PE as of current share price of 5.27 is 9.31 in FY2021 and 8.21 in FY2022 (no data for FY2023 yet, expecting increase with economy expansion later)
5y Historical PE range is 7.5 - 10.5. It is one of the lower PE bank counters for KLCI if one only have the guts to buy KLCI stock, this is one of the better pick.
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post Jan 27 2021, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 27 2021, 10:02 AM)
Goreng or not got no idea..... But basically Kpower already BI & Free warrant....So dun think will fly like SCIB.... SCIB just BI, free warrant 29/1 if not mistaken, need double check.....

After BI & Free warrant, need to wait QR report out.....incoming billions of revenues......time to prove Karim's power when QR out.

Edit : both company under Karim's management...
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Yea, i think people are riding the free warrant hype, kpower and scib might comatose like serbadk after all the warrant hype and trading at low PE (maybe because when share price is up too much exercising the warrant will increase the NOSH by 40% which will heavily dilute the earnings.

So maybe it is wise to sell after the warrant hype. KPower FY2021 PE = 27.8, FY2022 PE = 17.9 as of current price of 2.77. If the include the warrant dilution (IF exercised), will be increase the PE substantially
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post Jan 27 2021, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 27 2021, 10:19 AM)
yes, so after SCIB warrant I'll sell the mother......lucky i got put abit funds to test water........SCIB alone almost cover my losses at SPX lol
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Yeah, SCIB 1 warrant for 2 shares, imagine exercising it when the price is right, 33% dilution in earnings RIP

QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 27 2021, 10:21 AM)
Congrats dude I missed the boat I still prefer steady growth tech companies
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With the amount of warrants, they are giving, the longer term upside is very limited; from 2 shares become a potential of 3 shares. Anyone buying right after post warrant wont get to enjoy significant upside (theoretically, unless goreng like PE is just another number).

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 27 2021, 10:25 AM
HereToLearn
post Jan 27 2021, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jan 27 2021, 10:25 AM)
realise you like to use PE methodology for banks.
which the more commonly used methodology for banks would be PB ratio instead.

it is a different ball game when it comes to valuing a bank vs a conventional retail business.
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Yes I agree with you that majority measures using PB

PB is at historical low already, if measured by PB, it will be super super cheap - then almost all banks will have significant safety margin except pbb. So I use PE instead.

Want high ROE, then PBB, MBB, BIMB



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