Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

88 Pages « < 52 53 54 55 56 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

views
     
HereToLearn
post Nov 20 2020, 12:11 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 20 2020, 12:08 PM)
Buy backs is a double edge sword.

You bought back and price goes down, all existing holders suffer the loss with you. You bought back and price goes up, all existing holders enjoy the gain with you.

Buy back primarily will impact EPS and will also impact the subsequent dividend paid out if any. Again I would have prefer if they just give it all out as special dividend instead of using it to play the share market.

Such big buybacks is clearly wasting their profit and the dividend given to share holder can be use for other activity by their holders such as use it as capital to invest in other stuff.
*
Same thought like you.

I just dont understand why would someone buyback at a high price, when he/she can just buyback at a much lower price

Unless he/she knows that someone else would buy those shares if he/she allows the share to drop any lower. But not a lot of people have 69m to buy the shares everyday. So his/her competition is clearly very limited
HereToLearn
post Nov 20 2020, 12:14 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(skty @ Nov 20 2020, 12:11 PM)
you say as though its confirm that the price will free fall all the way if they don't do SBB.

you say as though they are like god can predict that they confirm can SBB at lower price.

buy in batches.
*
They should have realized that price will free fall without support after supporting it for days right?

HereToLearn
post Nov 20 2020, 12:24 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(ry8128 @ Nov 20 2020, 12:15 PM)
1. Because no one knows how low it can go. No one can time the market bro, no one.
2. They do buyback cos they can see the real value of something that commoners like me and u dun see. Meaning they see the gloves stocks are now seriously undervalue.

Eg, if someone is selling u brand new local original set of iphone 12 pro max for rm500 only, will u buy? I myself will buy it, and it wont be 1 unit. I could by 10 or 100 units, cos its undervalue. When the time comes, i can sell it off at 50% of the market price yet earn a lot.
*
Might be true.


Top Glove has spent about half its RM1.87b profit for FY20 on share buybacks since September

Topglov has spent about 919m for buybacks,
From FY20 profit alone, Topglov has about 951m left for buybacks, if they continue buying backs at 69m each time.

They will be able to buyback for another 13 times from this profit alone.


*Of course, they still have money from elsewhere to continue buying back, the above is just a rough calcs.
HereToLearn
post Nov 20 2020, 12:29 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
KLCI green

Today gloves carry KLCI
HereToLearn
post Nov 20 2020, 07:51 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(prozfromhell @ Nov 20 2020, 06:53 PM)
red buy green buy, everyday buy RM 69mil

When do Tan Sri plan to stop? LOL
*
When his cash pile is finished. From FY2020 profit alone, he can do it for 12 times more.
HereToLearn
post Nov 22 2020, 10:49 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 22 2020, 10:08 AM)
Anyway the writer continued....

The current share price is RM 7.30 as at 20th November :

The Dividend per share for FY2020 is 11.8 sens which translates to Dividend Yield of 1.6%

The Dividend per share for FY2021 is 63.5 sens which translates to Dividend Yield of 8.7%

The Dividend per share for FY2022 is 32.4 sens which translates to Dividend Yield of 4.4%

*
The writer did not include FY2023
FY 2023 Profit after Tax = RM 3,116 Billion 50% Dividend Policy = RM 1.558 Billion
DY = 1.558/59.75 = 2.6% using share price of RM7.30

Averagely DY% = 4.325% instead of 4.9%. He/she should have included it too to give more clarity on the yield part.

Also, he/she should also mention about the possible stagnant yield at about 2.6% after FY2023

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 22 2020, 10:51 AM
HereToLearn
post Nov 22 2020, 03:32 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 22 2020, 03:08 PM)
Next quarter for Top Glove should be Feb 2021 .....
analyst/research houses at that time... will be forced to ADDRESS the 2022 issue where profits will decline greatly... it's a matter of time.
They cannot be giving price target based on fy 2021 estimates anymore.... 

They, however, chose NOT to focus or mention directly the 2022 earnings decline.
*
True,
Target price is 12 months/18 months depending on the analysts. Thats why the TPs are still high now because 2021 will be good, 2022 will still be ok, but 2023 will be bad at current price of 2023. It is just a matter of time that the analysts have to factor in the -ve profit growth post 1H2021.

But within this very short period of time, some people will still follow the analysts' TPs blindly and keep buying. Advanced traders here can still make free ez money because they know quick enough to dispose it faster than the others. From long term investment point of view, I agree with Chaozz, if Topglov drops below RM3.5, can start buying.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 22 2020, 03:34 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 22 2020, 06:06 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 22 2020, 03:30 PM)
Probably in the short terms. But with earnings contractions later on, many will view the buy backs in hindsight as a moved that weakened the company balance sheets and a bad utilization of capital.

The latest casualty of buying backs share during good times and suffer during earnings contractions are boeing and airlines:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...oeing-buybacks/

Same case for most cyclicals which have issued buybacks:

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/13/why-stock-b...appointing.html

I like buybacks on beaten down stocks, or stock that are otherwise stable but suffer a one-off event to their earnings like Covid and making their stock worth less than they are temporary. During this period, buy backs from company like Berkshire are very welcoming. This would mean, later on when earnings recover, there are less hand in the pie to share the money. Ie EPS growth.
*
I noticed that too in the OnG stocks last time when the oil prices peaked. Maybe at that point of time, like the gloves now, they couldnt find any other better opportunities rather than buying back the shares

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 22 2020, 03:47 PM)
One thing about badly beaten down super high flyer.....

Go dig out the chart on MPI or Unisem once more....

Their glory years was 2000 ... their gogo year......

when it collapsed ..... it collapsed.... go see how long it took to 'recover' .....
Badly beaten down stocks got many dangers .... biggest one is.... stale bulls
*
It was RM55ish, wasnt it? Now it is RM23.4

QUOTE(ry8128 @ Nov 22 2020, 05:17 PM)
I feel panic seeing the all comments here, all so pro in investing, buying stocks based on what they can see in 2023. I felt so left behind, really need to do alot of catch up.
*
Actually, a lot of us cant see the outlook in 2023 too. This is why we quote the analysts' forecasts, which might underestimate Topglov's NP. Just follow what you think that is best thumbsup.gif

QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 22 2020, 04:44 PM)
More productive, more sweat shop, more efficient. Use low prices kill off competitors. That is how they roll haha.
Once super profit / black swan pandemic event over. Just take current earnings divided by 10 loh  tongue.gif
*
Dividing the current earnings by 10 is a bit too extreme IMO sweat.gif

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 22 2020, 06:10 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 22 2020, 08:26 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 22 2020, 06:32 PM)
Maybe i modify abit, Lets take Harta. Cause i plan to add them into my portfolio if price is right.

My calculation will be to take their normalized earnings post covid @ PE20 plus 3 years of super profit.

So a simple back enveloped calculation will give me as follow:

Targeted Normalized EPS: 20sen @ 20PE = RM4.00

3 Years of Super profit (RM2.40 EPS)

RM4.00 + 2.40 (Earnings) = RM6.40 <-- Target Buy price

So i guess not a factor of 10. Drop by half from now i will consider to add into as a long position  tongue.gif

Even at 6.40, post normalized earning it is still trading at 30X earnings which is still quite rich in terms of valuations and already consider very good for the business owners.
*
Yeah same thought, i think drop 1/2 to 1/3 of current price is attractive for long term investment depending on which glove counters

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 22 2020, 08:33 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 22 2020, 08:30 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 22 2020, 08:23 PM)
Astra has said it won’t profit during the pandemic and that the vaccine will cost between $4 and $5 a dose, though health advocates worry what that company and others will charge when the crisis is deemed over.

The U.S. agreed in July to obtain the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine in a deal that sets the price at $19.50 a dose, or $39 for a two-shot immunization, a level BioNTech said could become a benchmark for developed nations. Moderna said it’s charging $32 to $37 a dose for smaller deals and less for bigger purchases.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...or-many-nations
Distributor profit and its fair market share price could be deduced.
*
Holyshit 4-5 is very good rclxm9.gif.

Astra-Oxford also has advantages beyond cost when it comes to the rollout in low- and middle-income countries. The jab importantly can be kept at refrigerator temperatures, while those from Pfizer and Moderna, based on novel messenger RNA technology, require freezing for longer-term storage and transport. That’s why so many countries are eagerly awaiting the Astra results and focusing on the next candidates, including those from China

If it works, someone needs to recommend this to our government. Dont need to take the expensive shots from China

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 22 2020, 08:37 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 22 2020, 08:48 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(prody @ Nov 22 2020, 06:51 PM)
I don't have time to check how many countries are setting up how much capacity. Fact is worldwide capacity will increase significantly. You can look at Malaysia alone and see how capacity is added.
*
Sharing some info for Malaysia glove newcomers capacity (although just a tiny fraction of the big boys gloves, glove market still gets a bit crowded, most of these small ones wont go far)
Goocean - 2b
DGSB - 600m
GPA - 3.6b
Iconic - 3.1b
Cetech - 846m
Salcon - 3b
Vizione - 1.5b
Gets - 4.1b
Luster - 2b
Hongseng - 1.5b
AT - 2.6b
Aspen - 3.5b
Karex - 500m
Mahsing - 3.68b

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 22 2020, 08:50 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 22 2020, 09:54 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 22 2020, 09:03 PM)
is so funny.... article was highlighted cos there was insinuation that TOPGLOV could be a good dividend yield...

I only commented and pointed out .... based on the numbers used .... based on what was written....

it highlights 2 things...

1. Profits is estimated to decline after 2021.
2. Dividend yields although could be sexy in 2021, but calculations shows the yield will decline the next couple of years.

why accept the big boom 2021 numbers but refuse to accept the declining numbers the following year?

*
Yeah the highlighted part above is super misleading, as it doesnt tell the whole story when one stretches the time frame longer

Nevertheless Topglov next year DY% will be good for EPF. EPF might hold it for 1-2 years and slowly dispose it before 2022-2023.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 22 2020, 10:00 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 11:39 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...anagement-firm/

I didnt know that snap polls are actually good for the market
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 02:47 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(immobile @ Nov 23 2020, 01:33 PM)
ya uncle here bought around rm9.5 haha bought 1 month ago around there bangwall.gif
so still bagholding  doh.gif
*
Good luck uncle immobile

QUOTE(prody @ Nov 23 2020, 01:48 PM)
Most of these counters will never earn a single penny from vaccines. People will need to get out before this is concluded about these counters.
*
Up hahaha
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 04:24 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/astr...ve-results-show

Hope that our government will source this vaccine ($4-$5/shot)
It is effective, and most importantly, it is cheap!!
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 04:28 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(skty @ Nov 23 2020, 04:23 PM)
i try to keep silent but i just can't keep myself silent when i saw those kind of post.

i just want to give everyone one extreme example.

if TG tomorrow suddenly capacity +1000000000000000000000 bil/year, demand still more than supply.

understand? Don't keep focus on new supply news. That's not the bottleneck.
*
No offense please.
I just share the numbers because someone asked for it.

if TG tomorrow suddenly capacity +1000000000000000000000 bil/year, demand still more than supply. - too much of an exaggeration rclxm9.gif

But I have to agree, right now, demand is still more than supply, and any increase in supply in the near future cannot satisfy the demand, if not the ASP would have dropped much earlier
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 04:33 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(theberry @ Nov 23 2020, 04:29 PM)
Unlikely, cronies want earn $$$
*
console.gif
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 04:36 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(ben3003 @ Nov 23 2020, 04:33 PM)
ur abang hijau khairy oledi sign with china, means they will buy from china. astra punya, no chance to get la, they supply whole EU dulu. outside EU lu man man wait. AND malaysia is not even a priority area compare to EU and US.
*
outside EU lu man man wait - Not true bro

The Astra vaccine costs a fraction of the price set by Pfizer and will be manufactured in multiple countries, from India to Brazil. It should be easier to deploy far and wide than other shots that need to be stored at ultra-cold temperatures. But if the U.K. partners can’t match the lofty efficacy levels Pfizer and Moderna delivered or roll out their inoculation quickly, the pandemic might continue

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/ast...or-many-nations
Copyright © BloombergQuint

Even Thailand makes and supplies, our government should join the party too...
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...vid-19-vaccine/

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 23 2020, 04:38 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 04:41 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 23 2020, 04:37 PM)
correct... sure china, via WHO covax program.

china already said will be cheap cheap... free samples some more.. kronies boleh dapat la... biggrin.gif

everybody wins.
*
China one not cheap enough lo (about RM90) - which is similar to Moderna price already, compared to the Astra one ($4-5 only)

Moderna will charge governments between US$25 and US$37 per dose
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ccine-says-ceo/
HereToLearn
post Nov 23 2020, 04:43 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,282 posts

Joined: Sep 2019
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 23 2020, 04:40 PM)
Omigod!!

Why the need for you to explain yourself?

What you shared was just facts.

You should ignore the posting cos he/she has been against those that post negative comments on the glove sector and for your case, it just blew my mind cos those were the facts.

Share facts also cannot?  laugh.gif  laugh.gif

Turning into an i3 forum. So bloody irritating.  yawn.gif
*
I just dont want to offend anyone here.

I am pretty sure he also just shared his views only, not actually against my comments on glove sectors. We are all living harmoniously here cheers.gif

88 Pages « < 52 53 54 55 56 > » Top
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
1.6389sec    0.79    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 15th December 2025 - 04:41 PM