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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Nov 25 2020, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(cofin @ Nov 25 2020, 12:08 PM)
finally my cimb got hope after years
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Hahaha, key word is after years. I salute your patience. A true long term investor. Whats your average? Holding 4eva to collect dividend or what?
RM2.3 more to pre-covid level

BIMB is still the best pick for financial counters IMO. The good thing is it hasnt fly. RM0.7 more to precovid

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 25 2020, 12:13 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 25 2020, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(Assassin's @ Nov 25 2020, 12:47 PM)
Is the voting on Budget 2021 set for tomorrow or not! So confusing these news outlet

Source: Voting on Budget 2021 likely to be delayed to Nov 30

Schedule for budget voting on track — source
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Follow latest one, as of now it is on track
HereToLearn
post Nov 25 2020, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 25 2020, 12:58 PM)
Buybacks benefit select few like management team with ESOS or others external associates of theirs.

While company buy, associates sell. Create a net neutral movement on prices.

Small shareholders become sacrificial victims, as they are kept in the dark in regards on whether the buybacks is really for their benefits or just helping key shareholders to quietly disposed  big lots without shaking the counter.
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Yeah, the biggest question Toplgov investors should ask: why is the price still downtrending with such a huge scale of share buyback?
HereToLearn
post Nov 25 2020, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 25 2020, 04:22 PM)
what happened to banks eh suddenly up
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Fund slowly shifting from pandemic theme to recovery theme ma.

Metals, banks, OnG, Utilities all up
HereToLearn
post Nov 25 2020, 07:20 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Nov 25 2020, 06:43 PM)
this one, everyone will just exit the KLSE. laugh.gif

Want to tax, tax the property developers.  thumbup.gif
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Yes please, vacancy tax, land hoarding tax. So many taxes that can be imposed on the developers
HereToLearn
post Nov 25 2020, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(mitodna @ Nov 25 2020, 07:01 PM)
The factory no close reason being jentera Akan rosak kalau tutup ....

Anyway, I holding TG at rm 8.1 sad.gif, Ruberex rm 2.4 don't know what to buy else, even more losses
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Unit trust, corporate bonds
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post Nov 26 2020, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 26 2020, 09:39 AM)
Total number shares bought during this period.... 153,604,900
Sum paid for these shares = RM1,116,419,996.49

icon_rolleyes.gif
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FY2020 earnings = RM1,866,999,000
Sum paid for these shares = RM1,116,419,996.49

Started with 100mil/day then to 70mil/day now about 40mil/day

Left RM 750,579,003
= 11 days of buyback if RM70mil/day = 2 more weeks
= 15 days of buyback if RM50mil/day = 3 more weeks

I agree it is reckless, use this money to pay the remaining debts before buyback better
He could have just let it crash and buyback at much lower price if his intention is to collect those shares back to improve EPS

It is also very fishy. With RM1,116,419,996.49 bought back, the price is still falling. Only a few have so many tickets to sell and cash out...

Nevertheless, his buying back effort has brought Topglov flying today. Congrats Topglov shareholders! flex.gif

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 26 2020, 10:11 AM
HereToLearn
post Nov 26 2020, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 26 2020, 12:49 PM)
Calculations should be more complicated than that cos the last balance sheet figures we saw is a few months back.

seriously... no other reason to explain why TG cannot seem to up? how naïve do we want to be?

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Yeap, just a rough calcs to show that whole year earnings just gone in 1 month.
They can definitely buyback more days than the numbers shown there because of the new profits in that were not shown in the last qtr balance sheet.

I think the reason it cannot go up it because someone or some groups with the same amount of tickets are throwing it to Topglov everytime Topglov buys.
Could it be the big kaki's proxy accounts?


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post Nov 26 2020, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Nov 26 2020, 01:12 PM)
After that, the more cash we have, the more wealth we can create. Buy blue chips stock at super bargain. Have anyone ever think of Maybank can drop to RM2? Yeah. I am talking about that level of seriousness of crash. March 2020 crash is just tip of the iceberg.

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Yeah, definitely. Was hoping it to crash like it did back in AFC 1997/1998 to RM1.8 or at least to RM4 like it did in GFC 2008/09. But with financial system today being more resilient than it was back then, it is a bit hard for this to happen.

I think Topglov would have already hit RM3 way before MBB can crash to RM2 if more people start projecting the return based on analysts' given estimates at 2022 and 2023.
With Topglov below 3, only can we buy this blue chip stock at 'ok' bargain.

However, if more people are only projecting up until 2021, I think Topglov would continue flying with more buyers

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 26 2020, 02:21 PM
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post Nov 26 2020, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Nov 26 2020, 02:00 PM)
Actually my point is very simple only: everyone is looking at 2023 outlook, but how many stocks in our portfolio that already has the outlook for 2023? If no, then why are we treating gloves must look at 2023, and other sectors no need to look at 2023?

Ps: if really all the stock in ur portfolio has 2023 outlook, then pls forgive me, since my knowledge is not up to that standard yet.
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Because analysts did not give outlook for others until 2023. cry.gif

If they do, I would have used it. Without that, can only project it based on recent year earnings provided that there is no abnormal profits here and there in the recent years' data.
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post Nov 26 2020, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 26 2020, 02:21 PM)
Nov 26th already.... very soon we can kick 2020 into the longkang. Yipeee!

Come Feb 2021... which is the next quarter....

Reports will have to start giving out recommendations based on 2021 earnings estimate already.

Isn't this the industry standard?

Can they still give out recommendations based on 2021 earnings meh?  rolleyes.gif
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12 or 18 months TP is the industry standard

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 26 2020, 02:23 PM
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post Nov 26 2020, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 26 2020, 03:11 PM)
banks automatic moratorium remains for B40 only. please fly again tiger
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Extend how many months?
HereToLearn
post Nov 26 2020, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 26 2020, 03:19 PM)
should be for entire 2021 since this is a Budget announcement.
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Share source please. Thanks biggrin.gif
HereToLearn
post Nov 26 2020, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 26 2020, 03:35 PM)
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020...WbM-nY.facebook

The government has agreed to implement an automatic moratorium on loan repayments for those in the B40 group as well as micro and small-medium enterprises (SMEs).

This means that those in the B40 income group and micro SMEs do not need to submit any documents to be entitled to the three-month moratorium which will be implemented till December this year.

Oh 3 months only
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Same like last time lo. No changes at all. Finally the moratorium extension nuke is gone hahaha. Time to fly soon with the big players
HereToLearn
post Nov 26 2020, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(jonathanchee315 @ Nov 26 2020, 03:45 PM)
I thought bank should be taking a dive? Since moratorium is going to impact their earning and borrowing?
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Already priced in because it is already long known, only extension that is not known will make it dive.

Affect borrowing lo (longer term perspective = less earnings growth as less new loans can be made, a few more loans could have been made in these 3 months). Shorter term earnings still same.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 26 2020, 04:18 PM
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post Nov 26 2020, 04:18 PM

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Hope KLCI will slowly climb to 1700
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post Nov 26 2020, 06:13 PM

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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Nov 26 2020, 05:26 PM)
Yes, its true no analyst gives projection for other stocks except for glove companies. But i find these glove projections have a lot of flaws.  For example:
- did they factor in the "what if" no vaccine in sight for the next few years?
- did they factor in how with the amount of money made, these glove companies could diversify into other industries?  Where others are struggling on a daily basis now to make some money and with debts piling up, it would take them years to be in the black (think AirAsia). So how could these analysts projections for the glove be used when they do not know what these glove companies plan to do with their earnings?
- the CEOs of the Big 4 have from time to time gave an analyst briefing on their ASP, sales etc. All have years in this industry, they are not new players but had seen through Sars, ebola, h1n1 ad so many other viruses. So who is the industry expert here? The analyst or the glove bosses?

So my simple question is - if these analysts cannot factor in revenues for 2023 for other industries/stocks, how could they confidently gave projections for glove companies?
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I agree on you that the projection has flaws but it is almost irrefutable that the ASP will soon be reduced. I definitely agree on you that ASP might stay elevated longer than predicted. But it could also plunge faster than predicted. Sooner or later it is going to plunge, that's make the gloves cyclical. No one would be excited to hold glove counters at high prices when ASP starts reducing.

- did they factor in the "what if" no vaccine in sight for the next few years?
They most likely did not because China has already brought the covid cases down to controllable level. Is it due to vaccine or just good isolation?
Besides, they most likey did not because vaccine should be just around the corner. FDA may have a potential meeting on Dec 8-10 to discuss about covid vaccine.

- did they factor in how with the amount of money made, these glove companies could diversify into other industries?
They most likely did not. And thankfully, they did not. If not, they would be shocked seeing Topglov spending 1 whole year of earnings just to buyback.

- So who is the industry expert here? The analyst or the glove bosses?
The glove bosses are the industry experts, but If you dont use the analysts' earnings estimates projections as reference, where else can you get these info?
Interesting question to think about: why arent the industry experts (Puan Sri Tong Siew Bee, Mr Lim Hooi Sin, Mr Lim Jin Feng, FIRSTWAY UNITED CORP, Tan Sri) joining the buying back frenzy with Topglov?

- How could they confidently gave projections for glove companies?
The irrefutable ASP reduction in the future
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post Nov 26 2020, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 26 2020, 06:00 PM)
The announcement this week that a cheap, easy-to-make coronavirus vaccine appeared to be up to 90 percent effective was greeted with jubilation. “Get yourself a vaccaccino,” a British tabloid celebrated, noting that the vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, costs less than a cup of coffee.

But since unveiling the preliminary results, AstraZeneca has acknowledged a key mistake in the vaccine dosage received by some study participants, adding to questions about whether the vaccine’s apparently spectacular efficacy will hold up under additional testing.

Scientists and industry experts said the error and a series of other irregularities and omissions in the way AstraZeneca initially disclosed the data have eroded their confidence in the reliability of the results.

Officials in the United States have noted that the results were not clear. The head of the flagship federal vaccine initiative suggested that the vaccine’s most promising results may not have reflected data from older people.

The regimen that appeared to be 90 percent effective was based on participants receiving a half dose of the vaccine followed a month later by a full dose; the less effective version involved a pair of full doses. AstraZeneca disclosed in its initial announcement that fewer than 2,800 participants received the smaller dosing regimen, compared with nearly 8,900 participants who received two full doses.

The biggest questions were, why was there such a large variation in the effectiveness of the vaccine at different doses, and why did a smaller dose appear to produce much better results? AstraZeneca and Oxford researchers said they did not know.

Crucial information was also missing. The company said that the early analysis was based on 131 symptomatic Covid-19 cases that had turned up in study participants. But it did not break down how many cases were found in each group of participants — those who received the half-strength initial dose, the regular-strength initial dose and the placebo.

Adding to the confusion, AstraZeneca pooled the results from two differently designed clinical trials in Britain and Brazil, a break from standard practice in reporting the results of drug and vaccine trials.

In the statement attributed to Oxford, Ms. Meixell, the AstraZeneca spokeswoman, said the error stemmed from an issue, which has since been fixed, with how some of the vaccine doses were manufactured.

Then, on Tuesday, Moncef Slaoui, the head of Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. initiative to fast-track coronavirus vaccines, noted another limitation in AstraZeneca’s data. On a call with reporters, he suggested that the participants who received the half-strength initial dose had been 55 years old or younger. Ms. Meixell declined to say whether that was the case, noting that the data would be published soon in a peer-reviewed journal.

Scientists are also pressing the Oxford team to start a fresh, large-scale trial focused solely on determining whether the half-dose regimen was indeed more effective than the two standard doses.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/business...rxecRK-tBHvPJzE

Good news for vaccine haters laugh.gif
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GG Astra

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post Nov 27 2020, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(Sir Talks Alot @ Nov 27 2020, 12:57 PM)
Check this our guys.

Among all the blue chip banks, MBB latest QR is red.
user posted image
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It is best if you revise your fundamental analysis
HereToLearn
post Nov 27 2020, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(prozfromhell @ Nov 27 2020, 01:43 PM)
the npl provisions didnt seems to affect MBB much.
Did people over-persimmistic over the economy? LOL
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Some people have to spread fear ma, if not how do you get to own a sleep -well dividend stock with discounts.

When BNM stopped cutting OPR, we already can make educated guess that the economy recovery is already on track.

Back to MBB,
user posted image
MBB result is almost back to pre-covid because in this quarter, they allocate the loan loss provision like how they would normally allocate during pre-covid.
Last quarter, result dipped so much because they allocated A LOT more to prepare for the NPL.

Nevertheless, MBB share price is almost back to pre-covid share price (RM8.58). It is a bit late to join the recovery bandwagon for this bank counter already.
Unless, you are expecting aggressive loan growth when economy recovers due to pent up demand for luxury or improve-life-quality products (cars, properties etc).

Else, it is best if you start hunting other bank counters that still have a lot of room before going back to pre-covid prices.

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