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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Sep 27 2015, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 27 2015, 01:03 PM)
I am sure many would think now it may be too late as RM has depreciated so much. However, the scenario now is it could still go both ways. Continue to depreciate, or reach its limit and appreciate. Frankly nobody can tell. But I agree on the quoted bolded part above. There must be some structural transformation to our political scene for real improvement. Otherwise, I think RM would depreciate further
*
right, just don't read hlib comments only.

read others, incl this one: tongue.gif

QUOTE
"The ringgit weakness is only helping to cushion the negative shock, rather than reviving exports and growth. There is no 'J' (curve) so far, only a flat 'U'. More risks lie ahead. The Fed's tightening cycle will likely lead to further unwinding of the high foreign ownership holdings (of about 47%) of Malaysian government bonds.

"We also cannot see a quick resolution or the end-game of the current 1MDB crisis. BNM governor Zeti's retirement in April next year is also a risk, given that the next Governor may fall short on meeting market expectations for upholding BNM's credibility and independence," said Chua.
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1562158

MGM
post Sep 27 2015, 04:10 PM

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Went to a talk by FSM, d FSM guy said MYR fair value btw 3.8 to 4.3 so based your investment on that, d Aberdeen guy said some in their circle think MYR can fall to 5 if political situation doesn't improve. rclxub.gif rclxub.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 27 2015, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 27 2015, 04:10 PM)
Went to a talk by FSM, d FSM guy said MYR fair value btw 3.8 to 4.3 so based your investment on that, d Aberdeen guy said some in their circle think MYR can fall to 5 if political situation doesn't improve. rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
*
just curious...

.. the fsm guy - did he describe what it will take to get back to 3.80?

.. anyone speculated it might even go to 6.0 and under what conditions?
prophetjul
post Sep 28 2015, 11:28 AM

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i am sending my daughter ti Melbourne early next year.
Proposed studies for 6 years in Architecture.

Just for discussion:

Where do you see the AUD: MYR at

a) next year

b) 2 years out

c) After that

??
Showtime747
post Sep 28 2015, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 28 2015, 11:28 AM)
i am sending my daughter ti Melbourne early next year.
Proposed studies for 6 years in Architecture.

Just for discussion:

Where do you see the AUD: MYR at

a) next year

b) 2 years out

c) After that

??
*
If I were you. I won't bet on AUD now. Although in long term it will still be better than RM.

I will invest in SGD and USD denominated investment instead. Should be safer. Whenever you need AUD, then convert from SGD or USD. They should have better potential than the uncertainty in AUD. When the commodity market / China demand improves later, then re-look at AUD vs SGD vs USD. Now AUD doesn't look good compare to the other two. Note : I am not familiar with other currencies though...
AVFAN
post Sep 28 2015, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 28 2015, 11:28 AM)
i am sending my daughter ti Melbourne early next year.
Proposed studies for 6 years in Architecture.

Just for discussion:

Where do you see the AUD: MYR at

a) next year

b) 2 years out

c) After that

??
*
a) next 1 year - little change.

b) 2 years out - start gain against rm, maybe 1-2%.

c) After that - continue to gain mildly against rm.

i say that based on commodities incl crude and iron oil not going anywhere for the next 2-3 years.

also, the continued low confidence and unchangeable politics in msia in the same period.

lastly, oz has cut int rate twice, will look to raise rates when it permits.



MGM
post Sep 28 2015, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 27 2015, 07:50 PM)
just curious...

.. the fsm guy - did he describe what it will take to get back to 3.80?

.. anyone speculated it might even go to 6.0 and under what conditions?
*
Don't think so, what I gathered from the talk it is better to invest in battered assets than toppish one like US. Recommended markets China, EM, BRIC & Japan but not Euro & US.
AVFAN
post Sep 28 2015, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 28 2015, 02:48 PM)
Don't think so, what I gathered from the talk it is  better to invest in battered assets than toppish one like US. Recommended markets China, EM, BRIC & Japan but not Euro & US.
*
ok, thanks.

of those recommended, i am surely looking for a good entry point in china equities.

but not yet, china poor biz news still coming out.

rest of em, not so keen.
nexona88
post Sep 28 2015, 05:46 PM

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From: REality
1.00 USD = 4.42 MYR

1.00 SGD = 3.10 MYR

1.00 GBP = 6.74 MYR
AVFAN
post Sep 28 2015, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 28 2015, 05:46 PM)
1.00 USD  =  4.42 MYR

1.00 SGD  =  3.10 MYR

1.00 GBP  =  6.74 MYR
*
you did not photoshoppe these numbers? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 28 2015, 07:25 PM

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zeti says...

QUOTE
Zeti: No pressure to increase interest rates
http://iframe.malaysiakini.com/en/http://w...m/video/23440O8


27 Sep 2015 11:20 UTC - 28 Sep 2015 11:21 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.42359 low:4.38500 high:4.42829

TSwil-i-am
post Sep 28 2015, 08:43 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 28 2015, 07:25 PM)
27 Sep 2015 11:20 UTC - 28 Sep 2015 11:21 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.42359 low:4.38500 high:4.42829

*
More or less same with BNM closing rate of 4.42
nexona88
post Sep 28 2015, 08:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 28 2015, 06:49 PM)
you did not photoshoppe these numbers? tongue.gif
*
nope. it's real numbers. no photoshoped whatsoever laugh.gif
dreamer101
post Sep 28 2015, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 28 2015, 11:28 AM)
i am sending my daughter ti Melbourne early next year.
Proposed studies for 6 years in Architecture.

Just for discussion:

Where do you see the AUD: MYR at

a) next year

b) 2 years out

c) After that

??
*
prophetjul,

MYR will drop against USD. AUD may drop against USD. So, my guess is AUD will strengthen against MYR. If I am you, I would exchange some of the needed expense to USD and AUD now. Do not keep them at MYR.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 28 2015, 10:10 PM

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http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/31/asian-lng-p...pply-jumps.html
<< Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices could fall a further 25 percent in coming months as new supply, falling demand and weaker oil prices put it on par with iron ore and coal as the worst performing commodity of recent years. >>

Folks,

Malaysia is a big natural gas exporter. In the near term, Asian natural gas price will drop as US start exporting natural gas. So, it will get a lot worse..

Dreamer
netmask8
post Sep 28 2015, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 28 2015, 08:58 PM)
nope. it's real numbers. no photoshoped whatsoever  laugh.gif
*
did u open yr social networking and see any "text EDIT" with great politic notes with it ? hmm.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 29 2015, 06:31 AM

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27 Sep 2015 22:15 UTC - 28 Sep 2015 22:28 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.44875 low:4.38500 high:4.45450

Gonna say hello to 4.45 today?
Showtime747
post Sep 29 2015, 07:05 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 29 2015, 06:31 AM)
27 Sep 2015 22:15 UTC - 28 Sep 2015 22:28 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.44875 low:4.38500 high:4.45450

Gonna say hello to 4.45 today?
*
I don't believe you. Because the macai above you say you photoshopped.

Inb4 he will say I cannot debate and resort to calling him macai... doh.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 29 2015, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 29 2015, 06:31 AM)
27 Sep 2015 22:15 UTC - 28 Sep 2015 22:28 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.44875 low:4.38500 high:4.45450

Gonna say hello to 4.45 today?
*
already 4.4650.

asian champ everyday.

horrifying...
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 29 2015, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 29 2015, 09:21 AM)
already 4.4650.

asian champ everyday.

horrifying...
*
Thanks for reminding coz bz tis morning
Now at
28 Sep 2015 01:20 UTC - 29 Sep 2015 01:24 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.47030 low:4.39246 high:4.47076

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