Ya, he is more like a politician, when cornered, he will answer "I have stated what you asked, the answer is somewhere in my 100 pages thread...". Never a direct simple answer. Makes a debate never ending

I understand politician trying to survive and has to give such answers

But I don't understand what has he got to lose by giving clear answer. The conclusion I made is he has an ego bigger than a watermelon in his stomach. He can't swallow a single mistake even in the cyberworld where nobody knew him. Maybe he feels he has offended too many people in the past and 1 mistake he makes will be the end of his life in LYN

Diversify into forex investment. This is what we discussed all this while

Many ways we can do. Those I can think off my head :

1. Simply buy foreign currency
2. Buy shares in KLCI companies which earn majority of income in forex
3. Buy foreign market company shares like In USA, Singapore, HK etc
4. Buy commodity denominated in USD, like gold silver
5. Foreign assets like property, bonds, structured products

Not saying which is good or bad. Choose the ones most suited to you. I am sure there are others....

If one is prepared e.g klse crash, does it matter if it occur one or two years early or later? Further, certain decline e.g property or country economy take years to be noticeable or statistics take years to be available, couldn't place a specific time or event before hand.

May be you forgot, up to a few months ago, you were still very gungho on kV property. When was the beginning of kV property price decline? 2014, 2015, 2016 or 2017?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 27 2015, 08:05 AM

Only dead and tax is certainty in life. Even doctor can't tell when his terminally ill patient is going to die exactly.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 27 2015, 08:03 AM

In economics, it is called the efficiency of capital allocation. We put our capital to where it is most productive.

In your KLSE example, I expect it to come down further in the next 3-6 months, so I liquidated a majority of it beforehand. This is where a prediction with time frame is useful in our capital allocation. I could be right, I could be wrong though. If you do it too soon or too late, it is unproductive. Financial decisions are always time sensitive.

On hindsight, we see very clearly we should put our capital in US$ denominated investment now. But just a few year ago when USA experienced sub prime crisis, one will be dead wrong. USA decline from 3.8 to 2.8. How many % was that ?

In a debate, those keyboard warrior talk based on hindsight always sound very plausible. That's why I asked for a time frame to make a debate meaningful and forward looking



When will it decline should be answered by the DDD (which you are better than unker, at least you give a time frame "before year 2030" ). The UUU is expecting no price decline, how to predict a time ? You have to think logically.

Anyway, This is a RM devaluation thread. We have enough of property bubble thread. I have made my stance very clear in those many threads. I always say there is a chance of bubble burst. If you wish, we can continue again over there

I really hope unker can give a timeframe. Even a "by year 2030" by you is better than none. Although it is a laughable time frame

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Sep 27 2015, 09:48 AM

Doctors do give a time frame based on their experience. Not exact date, but like "another 1 year", "six months" etc

One should have invested in USD assets before the current crisis. USD appreciation didn't occur overnight nor was unexpected after qe was tapered. Btw, chasing high is a typical herd behavior.

By 2030, Malaysia will be a ageing nation, expect property price on another down trend.

If a doctor give a patient 1 year to live, does it matter if he dies in 6 or 24 months?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 27 2015, 10:01 AM

You are a hindsight keyboard warrior then. Nobody here talk about US$ could go down to 4.40 just 1 year ago.

Professionals do give time frame. Not like some balls-less keyboard warrior here.

It does matter because the patient and his family can make preparation like Will/transfer of assets, fulfilling the patient's unfinished dreams, and get the family prepared mentally to reduce the impact to the minimum

When you have experienced such incident, you will appreciate the doctor's advice

Most Lyn members are herd member, more keen on immediate and easy profit and lack patient for longer term investment. Believe you were one of those ridiculous me for suggesting to invest in foreign assets e.g us stock, 2 years ago.

A will could be prepared in a matter of days. Assets transfer could be done in weeks.

to me, it crashed a year ago. but... crash means diff things to diff people.

to me, it is a culmination of things we have been saying for the last few years - high debt, low productivity, wastage, free-flow songlap and support for less than straight leaders.

there surely is a price to be paid. it is simply not possible to have all that yet no consequence. if that can be sustained, nobody on the planet needs to work - just borrow, songlap and feast everyday.

the impt thing is what comes next - 1, 2, 3 yrs... beyond that, hard to tell becos our politics are now completely driving the economics - that can take a turn for the better or worse alto i see the latter with much higher probability.

what is potentially tragic is some of the prolonged structural weaknesses may now be taking hold permanently and may become very difficult to reverse.

on hindsight, one should be terrified by reading and listening to those who were spouting "will never cross 3.70", "with fat reseveres, will surely return to 3.30", "grossly undervalued", etc.

value of a currency, like respect, cannot be demanded. it is earned and given by others. unless u close yr doors to the rest of the world, diy 100% like in cavemen days.

world bank and others have warned putrajaya many times over the years - high debt, over reliance on commodities/low end manufacturing/cheap foreign labor, income disparity, middle income trap, governance. they warned there will be little room to move in a crisis. and here we are.

the individual can only do so much, but doing something is better than doing nothing. becos the higher powers are already doing nothing.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 27 2015, 11:14 AM

Dosen't change the fact that today 1USD=RM4.40 wherelse just 1 year ago it was 1USD=RM3.4. Are you saying the rates are photo shopped? Can you tell the money changer that 1USD is not RM4.4?

what i'm trying to say is, he's giving politically correct answers. unker dreamer gives a general statement that 'everyone will die'. whether die in 1 month, 1 year, 10 years, he will still be 'correct' at the end of the day.

Malaysia is now viewed belongs to this group.

“tidal wave of deflation” is the current in words.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 27 2015, 12:49 PM

All investment decision is time sensitive. Be it long term or short term. That is the basic in investment.

Of course, if you are a hindsight keyboard warrior, you can comment based on past events for 100% accuracy which investment is good and which is bad. You will suddenly be even a greater investor than Warren Buffett


You still remember something I said 2 years ago ? I can't even remember myself. I must be a very important person in your life that you still remember what I said 2 years ago

You always drift away from the points we talk about. You said doctors don't give time frame for patient. I said they do. Based on my real life experience.

Then you tell me the time frame prediction is not important to a patient. I gave you example why the time frame is important - give time to "prepare will/transfer asset", "fulfill unfinished dreams", "give family time to accept the fact their loved one is leaving them"

And now you single out 1 of the benefits of doctor giving a time frame and say "will and asset transfer can be done very quickly". How about the other 2 benefit ?

I find that you disagree with what I said for the sake of disagreeing, maybe because I said something you don't like 2 years ago.

Let me remind you this is a thread about RM depreciation. Don't drift away from the main topic. All I am saying to the negative and pessimistic people is - time frame is very important in financial prediction. If you want to make a prediction, include your time frame. Otherwise, your prediction is open ended and the discussion will have no conclusion

I think the value of this thread is to give the readers info and opinion on the benefit of diversification by investing in foreign assets. To protect/preserve/grow our money in different denomination.

I am sure many would think now it may be too late as RM has depreciated so much. However, the scenario now is it could still go both ways. Continue to depreciate, or reach its limit and appreciate. Frankly nobody can tell. But I agree on the quoted bolded part above. There must be some structural transformation to our political scene for real improvement. Otherwise, I think RM would depreciate further

Double post...

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Sep 27 2015, 01:03 PM

I am contented with what I have; nice creamy ice cream, study on herd behaviour and occasional proper paella and risotto, need not compare with anyone.

If investment is liquid, could cash in and out in a moment, precise timing is unimportant except for flipper or day trader.

On MYR, until consensus changed, MYR is still on downward trend.

Ya, he is what we need for a prolonged debate

Actually what he said I agree for the most part. Malaysia economy is sick and not looking good. RM is still vulnerable. Any sensible people can see that. Just that he is too negative and pessimistic on the future that Malaysia "will be doomed and never recover". But when asked for a timeframe, he is making a "political correct" statement

What have you done for yourself on this unfortunate event ? I guess your answer will be that you are a student and ice cream stall attendant who has very little cash to worry about ?

Tell your strategy here if you are not trolling us. Readers would like to hear all opinion on RM. Not your taste on ice cream, paella and risotto.

Stop trolling in this section if you are not serious. You can always talk about food is the appropriate section

As you bold marked "until consensus changed, MYR is still on downward trend."

No one could stop a herd stampede, almost any foreign assets is better than MYR.