midf, a gomen agency sees rm strengthening.
MIDF sees ringgit strengthening towards 4.00 against USD in near-term
By Ahmad Naqib Idris / theedgemarkets.com | September 10, 2015 : 12:02 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 10): MIDF Research expects the ringgit to strengthen towards between 4.00 and 4.20 levels against the US dollar within the next few months, as the ringgit is showing clear signs of tapering, following its recent plunge.
In a note today, MIDF said the ringgit situation was turning for the better towards the end of August, based on the negative spread between the USD/MYR non-deliverable forward (NDF) rate and onshore interbank forward rate seen during the month.
“It is notable that the spread slumped to more than -200 pips at its recent trough, the lowest level since March this year. We believe the prevailing downswing is related to, among others, the changing market perceptions over the timing and pace of US Fed’s future monetary actions,” said the research house.
It explained that the narrowing of the offshore-onshore spread signals a transitory reversal of the ringgit’s performance against the greenback.
“On this score, we may see the ringgit strengthening against US dollar towards between 4.20 and 4.00 levels within the next few months,” it said.
The research house added that the strengthening of the ringgit will have a positive impact on the equity market and maintained its year-end baseline target of 1,650 points, with upper and lower range of 1,700 and 1,600 points respectively.
MIDF noted that the pressure on the ringgit was building up since the fourth quarter of 2014, with the spread between NDF and onshore interbank forward rates continued to rise and peaked in March 2015, and subsequently tapered down over the following two months.
The pressure returned strongly in June to August, it said, with the rates spread expanding up to almost 1,000 pips in mid-August, with the ringgit breaching 3.80 in early July and 4.00 near mid-August, the two important psychological levels.
At 10.45am today, the ringgit weakened to 4.3475 against the US dollar, according to Bloomberg data.
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