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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(supersound @ Sep 10 2015, 09:56 AM)
Anything that will fluctuate, is not wise to keep for long period. As keeping for long period, it will more or less break even. I still have SGD400 that got during rm2.50 from my friend last year.
Worth rm1000 and now worth rm1200(round up). So if I change it now, I earn 20% thumbup.gif
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Hi,...a fluctuating instrument is still worthy to buy if it gives out consistent cashflow. For me, I will just hold it for long term, and with the additional cashflow generated from the instruments (or from my profession), I will plough it back into the instruments if I think the fundamentals are still there but the instrument is dropping in price because of 'a falling tide'.

Cashflow is utmost in my mind.
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 10 2015, 11:16 AM)
The point of diversification of asset is not about making gain, but to "protect" your wealth, or normalise your investment.

Eg.
You have FD, Bonds, stock.
We know these 3 asset class doesn't correlate each other and most of the time have inverse correlation.
When FD low, stock high.
Bond low, stock high
FD low, bond high

But you still diversify into these 3 asset class, as you always have something to compensate in whatever situation, aka your wealth is more "protected", instead of invest all in stock, when stock market plunge, you lose all, or invest all in bond but when bond price dropped time, you lose big.

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But there have been signs in the last few years that the inverse correlation of the above instruments do not prevail anymore.

AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 12:40 PM

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midf, a gomen agency sees rm strengthening.

QUOTE
MIDF sees ringgit strengthening towards 4.00 against USD in near-term

By Ahmad Naqib Idris / theedgemarkets.com  | September 10, 2015 : 12:02 PM MYT 

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 10): MIDF Research expects the ringgit to strengthen towards between 4.00 and 4.20 levels against the US dollar within the next few months, as the ringgit is showing clear signs of tapering, following its recent plunge.

In a note today, MIDF said the ringgit situation was turning for the better towards the end of August, based on the negative spread between the USD/MYR non-deliverable forward (NDF) rate and onshore interbank forward rate seen during the month.

“It is notable that the spread slumped to more than -200 pips at its recent trough, the lowest level since March this year. We believe the prevailing downswing is related to, among others, the changing market perceptions over the timing and pace of US Fed’s future monetary actions,” said the research house.

It explained that the narrowing of the offshore-onshore spread signals a transitory reversal of the ringgit’s performance against the greenback.

“On this score, we may see the ringgit strengthening against US dollar towards between 4.20 and 4.00 levels within the next few months,” it said.

The research house added that the strengthening of the ringgit will have a positive impact on the equity market and maintained its year-end baseline target of 1,650 points, with upper and lower range of 1,700 and 1,600 points respectively.

MIDF noted that the pressure on the ringgit was building up since the fourth quarter of 2014, with the spread between NDF and onshore interbank forward rates continued to rise and peaked in March 2015, and subsequently tapered down over the following two months.

The pressure returned strongly in June to August, it said, with the rates spread expanding up to almost 1,000 pips in mid-August, with the ringgit breaching 3.80 in early July and 4.00 near mid-August, the two important psychological levels.

At 10.45am today, the ringgit weakened to 4.3475 against the US dollar, according to Bloomberg data.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/m...t-usd-near-term
cherroy
post Sep 10 2015, 01:19 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 10 2015, 12:11 PM)
But there have been signs in the last few years that the inverse correlation of the above instruments do not prevail anymore.
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It may because of massive QE that skew the normal inverse correlation, especially on bonds, whereby bond dropped to extremely low yield previously.

MGM
post Sep 10 2015, 01:21 PM

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Any special reason why Thai Baht is stronger than MYR when Thailand is not short of troubles lately? MYR's fair value should at least be on par.
SUSsupersound
post Sep 10 2015, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 10 2015, 12:08 PM)
Hi,...a fluctuating instrument is still worthy to buy if it gives out consistent cashflow. For me, I will just hold it for long term, and with the additional cashflow generated from the instruments (or from my profession), I will plough it back into the instruments if I think the fundamentals are still there but the instrument is dropping in price because of 'a falling tide'.

Cashflow is utmost in my mind.
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If it is steady only, then how would some make money from it hmm.gif
We don't have much fundamentals as long as we are surrounded by some political issues and scandals.
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 10 2015, 01:19 PM)
It may because of massive QE that skew the normal inverse correlation, especially on bonds, whereby bond dropped to extremely low yield previously.
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Right ! Or perhaps the mkt is so uncertain that everybody, retailers and institutions alike withdrew from every instrument and preferred to stay on the sidelines every now and then. But then fund mgrs and insitutions don't really like to hold cash, their nvestors will query them, and they must be able to provide really good answers to convince the mkt to stay on.
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 10 2015, 01:21 PM)
Any special reason why Thai Baht is stronger than MYR when Thailand is not short of troubles lately? MYR's fair value should at least be on par.
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Well, the way I see it, the neighbouring has always had problems for as long as the investing public can remember, hence the Baht is immune from falling further. Prbs are a norm for them. For Msia, I believed what we are going through now are very unique and the scandals are really bad compared to history.
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(supersound @ Sep 10 2015, 01:39 PM)
If it is steady only, then how would some make money from it hmm.gif
We don't have much fundamentals as long as we are surrounded by some political issues and scandals.
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I was replying to your statement on something not worthy to hold-in to. Yes, if your position has changed and you are now saying that fluctuations can still make instruments worthy to hold-on to because of the potential capital gain, I would agree too. HOWEVER, for myself, I'd rather hold-on to assets of good fundamentals and with fluctuations that can be explained, on the condition that such assets provide good cashflow.
MGM
post Sep 10 2015, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 10 2015, 01:43 PM)
Well, the way I see it, the neighbouring has always had problems for as long as the investing public can remember, hence the Baht is immune from falling further. Prbs are a norm for them. For Msia, I believed what we are going through now are very unique and the scandals are really bad compared to history.
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So it is more on perception than fundamental? Investors are immune to the troubles in Thailand. So if Malaysia political problems subsided/solved then MYR should strengten.

This post has been edited by MGM: Sep 10 2015, 01:53 PM
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 10 2015, 01:51 PM)
So it is more on perception than fundamental? Investors are immune to the troubles in Thailand. So if Malaysia political problems subsided/solved  then MYR should strengten.
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Just a personal sentiment abt Thailand. Msia - hard to tell,... perhaps that's what the ruling party is waiting for.
cherroy
post Sep 10 2015, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 10 2015, 01:51 PM)
So it is more on perception than fundamental? Investors are immune to the troubles in Thailand. So if Malaysia political problems subsided/solved  then MYR should strengten.
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Thailand fiscal deficit situation is better or lesser than Malaysia
Foreign currency reserves situation is better, with little outflow capital concern.
Lower oil benefit for oil importer country, bad of exporter like Malaysia.

Current RM depreciation is not solely of fundamental side of issue, confidence and perception always play import role in short term volatility movement that may overwrite the fundamental.



This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 10 2015, 02:29 PM
cherroy
post Sep 10 2015, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 10 2015, 01:51 PM)
So it is more on perception than fundamental? Investors are immune to the troubles in Thailand. So if Malaysia political problems subsided/solved  then MYR should strengten.
*
The less investors coming in previously, the less investor going out.

The less money want to outflow, the more stable your currency.
SUSsupersound
post Sep 10 2015, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 10 2015, 01:47 PM)
I was replying to your statement on something not worthy to hold-in to. Yes, if your position has changed and you are now saying that fluctuations can still make instruments worthy to hold-on to because of the potential capital gain, I would agree too. HOWEVER, for myself, I'd rather hold-on to assets of good fundamentals and with fluctuations that can be explained, on the condition that such assets provide good cashflow.
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Well, if you were to ask me, nothing is worth to hold on to. Hit and run still my concept on making money. Market crashed got people commit suicide, got people get rich. Timing is important.
Like with the recent UAE(10)-Malaysia(0), 1 of our local bookie king managed to make billions. He know the problem on FAM and it is a danger to our national team, rather than wait for faith, why not play a fake ball and make fast money thumbup.gif
Remember, if there's danger for a situation, there's always opportunities.
Anyway, just because of my bloody share broker mistakenly taken 5000 units as 50000 units, I get rm5000 for no reason as I targeted to make rm500 only. Now my head starts to crack how to hide this money from my wife sweat.gif
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 10 2015, 02:13 PM)
The less investors coming in previously, the less investor going out.

The less money want to outflow, the more stable your currency.
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smile.gif So the sentiment has always been low,... my sentiment exactly. Hence 'pouring more salt into the wound wouldn't aggravte the pain any further'.
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(supersound @ Sep 10 2015, 02:24 PM)
Well, if you were to ask me, nothing is worth to hold on to. Hit and run still my concept on making money. Market crashed got people commit suicide, got people get rich. Timing is important.
Like with the recent UAE(10)-Malaysia(0), 1 of our local bookie king managed to make billions. He know the problem on FAM and it is a danger to our national team, rather than wait for faith, why not play a fake ball and make fast money thumbup.gif
Remember, if there's danger for a situation, there's always opportunities.
Anyway, just because of my bloody share broker mistakenly taken 5000 units as 50000 units, I get rm5000 for no reason as I targeted to make rm500 only. Now my head starts to crack how to hide this money from my wife sweat.gif
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Tq fro your good opinions. biggrin.gif

Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 10 2015, 10:41 AM)
Over the years, I have invested in KLSE unsystematically, I won some and lost some and felt that this is a no win situation. Maybe I have not mastered the tricks like so many of the experts here. Which is why I am comfortably invested in ASX knowing that they consistent gives 6-7% until the recent scares flaring out like wild fire. I am starting to look into asset diversification and corelation(don't want to be caught in the situation where 1 asset gain is canceled out by 1 lost).

I know of a friend who invested in China Stocks  over the last ten years. With a intial investment of RM1m in 2005, the value rose to RM5m in 2007, then it came down to RM1m+ after the crisis and dingdong there until this year when it rose to RM4m+. When I told him that 1 bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush, he replied that this time is different. Unfortunately it is now back to RM1m+. If he is to liquidate all now, he will still makes some money (may be 3-4%/pa). May be it is the rollercoaster feeling that he is after.
So this would be considered a long term investment but without appropriate timing of cashing out it is just like a rollercoaster ride.
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Just for investment variety sake, my experience in malaysian properties has been a lot more lucky. That is the best performance sector to me over 20+ years averaging low-mid teen % pa. Of course it is helped by the super bull run of the last few years and prices still not coming down (yet ?)
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 02:46 PM)
Just for investment variety sake, my experience in malaysian properties has been a lot more lucky. That is the best performance sector to me over 20+ years averaging low-mid teen % pa. Of course it is helped by the super bull run of the last few years and prices still not coming down (yet ?)
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I have been a bit luckier,... my props have appreciated and with full tenancy, my SG REITs have not dropped till my Average prices, and most of my stocks and fund holding everywhere are still holding.

The single biggest problem tat I have is my ASX holdings. and the second major problem is an oil ctr in the US that has depreciated in price by 80%, though still giving out dividends.

TSwil-i-am
post Sep 10 2015, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 10 2015, 02:53 PM)
I have been a bit luckier,... my props have appreciated and with full tenancy, my SG REITs have not dropped till my Average prices, and most of my stocks and fund holding everywhere are still holding.

The single biggest problem tat I have is my ASX holdings. and the second major problem is an oil ctr in the US that has depreciated in price by 80%, though still giving out dividends.
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I tot u have disposed almost all ASX?
Hansel
post Sep 10 2015, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 02:55 PM)
I tot u have disposed almost all ASX?
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Not all,.. yet. But even if I have, I would still classify that investment as a risky one for me this year. I have not divested any other instruments except for the ASX this yr..

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