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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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[Ancient]-XinG-
post Sep 10 2015, 10:18 PM

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Guys just want to ask. Is the lower boundary of KLCI reach which is 1500 points? Because some forumsr do say KLCI boundary is 1200points
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 09:57 PM)
this is an informative article about currencies oil exporting countries at this time.

perhaps.... can say:

.. msia with "strong fundamentals" is right in the center.
.. devalued russian ruble and to a lesser extent, vietnamese dong having devalued right after chinese rmb, are now stronger.
.. brunei is vulnerable but currency is pegged to sgd, will be interesting to watch.
.. msia's debt/gdp is on par with or worse than many african countries.
still, all commodity economies will not have it easy for a long time to come going by this article:
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I think over the years, many surprises hit us. Who predicted the oil price caused havoc last year ? I am sure there will be continued surprises unfolding in the next few months. Just when we thought US$ will continue its uptrend, suddenly a surprise will hit us and the tide changes 180 degree. Never know. Too many such surprises we encountered in the past
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:21 PM)
I think over the years, many surprises hit us. Who predicted the oil price caused havoc last year ? I am sure there will be continued surprises unfolding in the next few months. Just when we thought US$ will continue its uptrend, suddenly a surprise will hit us and the tide changes 180 degree. Never know. Too many such surprises we encountered in the past
*
i have no idea what will change the tide but can see 2 threats coming - el nino-water supply shortage; illegal immigrants w/o jobs.


Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 10:26 PM)
i have no idea what will change the tide but can see 2 threats coming - el nino-water supply shortage; illegal immigrants w/o jobs.
*
Too many. Nobody knows. Everything is possible. tongue.gif

People used to say holding cash is not good, inflation will eat you up. But nowadays, holding cash in foreign currencies makes lots of money (in home currency term). Despite sitting in the account earning 0.xx% interest. It is the so called "investment" that may eat you up. Not inflation anymore.

But the next day, if something happens, suddenly tides turn.

Very volatile market. Good for high risk taker. Bad for low risk taker. Maybe just do nothing is better. This one I learn from Zeti tongue.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM

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A lot of Ppl is opening new foreign currency a/c plus changing to foreign currency notes as they anticipate MYR will depreciates further against major foreign currencies
V will witness another herd mentality in foreign currency which is similar to properties few years back
However, tis Ppl fail to realize tat USD/MYR could make a u turn n start to appreciates
Wat tis Ppl gonna do when MYR runs wild on USD?


AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM)
However, tis Ppl fail to realize tat USD/MYR could make a u turn n start to appreciates
Wat tis Ppl gonna do when MYR runs wild on USD?
*
oh, i think they know.

what will reverse the trend will not be oil or cpo rebounding hard or china flies again.

it will be m wins, n leaves. this one is a matter of weeks or months, not years, imo.
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:41 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM)
A lot of Ppl is opening new foreign currency a/c plus changing to foreign currency notes as they anticipate MYR will depreciates further against major foreign currencies
V will witness another herd mentality in foreign currency which is similar to properties few years back
However, tis Ppl fail to realize tat USD/MYR could make a u turn n start to appreciates
Wat tis Ppl gonna do when MYR runs wild on USD?
*
That's right. I always wonder how high the US$ can go to a point it won't hurt its economy. There must be a limit. If not, their exports will suffer. And unemployment will increase.

If they raise interest now, it will hurt their export further.

Interesting to see how far the USA is willing to test their limit.
blogomatic
post Sep 10 2015, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:15 PM)
Let him be lah. He is like that. Just ignore him if you don't like his comment. He can voice his view as many times as he likes, and you can also ignore him as many times as you like. Unless he tagged you then you report him for baiting

Be confident with your own investment. If you are confident, what others say is just jokes to you.

I give you a joke now. I think unker is correct this time  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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nobody says he's wrong. just that he has to learn to show some respect to others. point is, it's annoying to see him doing that. we should prevent it from happening, not sweeping it under the carpet.
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 10:38 PM)
oh, i think they know.

what will reverse the trend will not be oil or cpo rebounding hard or china flies again.

it will be m wins, n leaves. this one is a matter of weeks or months, not years, imo.
*
If transition is smooth, a deal is worked out between the parties, then all is good.

But if it is by force, then more fanfare will follows sweat.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 10 2015, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 10:38 PM)
oh, i think they know.

what will reverse the trend will not be oil or cpo rebounding hard or china flies again.

it will be m wins, n leaves. this one is a matter of weeks or months, not years, imo.
*
Could b matter of days brows.gif
Ramjade
post Sep 10 2015, 10:53 PM

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Well the way I look at it, US is crying wolf about hike in interest to attract back USD. Most likely I am wrong.
dreamer101
post Sep 10 2015, 10:55 PM

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Folks,

The ISSUE is not whether USD/MYR rate will change and MYR start appreciating. Recent USD/MYR drop had alerted many people that they have NO DIVERSIFICATION. They put all their eggs into ONE basket (country). So, if that country's economy / currency went down, they lose their purchasing power.

This is Basic Personal Finance. Now, for people that do not know this and argue against this, they are DUMMIES.

On the side notes, USD may or may not strengthen against other currency. But, Malaysia has a lot of problems that can only get worse and not better for at least over the next 2 years if not longer. People need to be conscious of this and protect themselves.

Dreamer
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 10:51 PM)
Could b matter of days  brows.gif
*
u r definitely underestimating him. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM)
Too many. Nobody knows. Everything is possible.  tongue.gif
*
futile to worry about things like income tax, gst, gomen debt, buying new jets or ships - that, we can do nothing.

just manage the little savings we got, eat the food we like. laugh.gif

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:41 PM)
That's right. I always wonder how high the US$ can go to a point it won't hurt its economy. There must be a limit. If not, their exports will suffer. And unemployment will increase.

If they raise interest now, it will hurt their export further.

Interesting to see how far the USA is willing to test their limit.
*
it's not that they want raise rates. it becos after almost a decade of near zero rates, their pension plans and insurance sector will soon go into meltdown if still no action. that will bring another lehman brothers, bad for the globe too.
icemanfx
post Sep 11 2015, 02:37 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:21 PM)
I think over the years, many surprises hit us. Who predicted the oil price caused havoc last year ? I am sure there will be continued surprises unfolding in the next few months. Just when we thought US$ will continue its uptrend, suddenly a surprise will hit us and the tide changes 180 degree. Never know. Too many such surprises we encountered in the past
*
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM)
Too many. Nobody knows. Everything is possible.  tongue.gif

People used to say holding cash is not good, inflation will eat you up. But nowadays, holding cash in foreign currencies makes lots of money (in home currency term). Despite sitting in the account earning 0.xx% interest. It is the so called "investment" that may eat you up. Not inflation anymore.

But the next day, if something happens, suddenly tides turn.

Very volatile market. Good for high risk taker. Bad for low risk taker. Maybe just do nothing is better. This one I learn from Zeti  tongue.gif
*
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:41 PM)
That's right. I always wonder how high the US$ can go to a point it won't hurt its economy. There must be a limit. If not, their exports will suffer. And unemployment will increase.

If they raise interest now, it will hurt their export further.

Interesting to see how far the USA is willing to test their limit.
*
QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 10 2015, 10:53 PM)
Well the way I look at it, US is crying wolf about hike in interest to attract back USD. Most likely I am wrong.
*
Economic long term equilibrium always prevail. Most people have half understanding of economic and often the wrong half e.g the effect and fallout of US QE on gold price, kv property price, US interest rate, etc; China economy data on commodities price, etc.

Current onslaught on commodities and MYR started in 2014 and most people chose to ignore. US$ is expected to remain strong and stable in the medium term.

Unless one intend to trade US$ forex, need not hold US$ in cash. If one is unfamiliar with US stock, can consider ETF like DIA, SPY and IYR.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 11 2015, 10:55 AM
Showtime747
post Sep 11 2015, 06:25 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 11:07 PM)
futile to worry about things like income tax, gst, gomen debt, buying new jets or ships - that, we can do nothing.

just manage the little savings we got, eat the food we like. laugh.gif
it's not that they want raise rates. it becos after almost a decade of near zero rates, their pension plans and insurance sector will soon go into meltdown if still no action. that will bring another lehman brothers, bad for the globe too.
*
Yallen has a lot to worry about. Too many stakeholders will be affected by her decision. Even people in Malaysia are affected tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 11 2015, 06:29 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 11 2015, 02:37 AM)
Economic long term equilibrium always prevail. Most people have half understanding of economic and often the wrong half e.g the effect and fallout of US QE on gold price, kv property price, US interest rate, etc; China economy data on commodities price, etc.

Current onslaught on commodities and MYR started in 2014 and most people chose to ignore. US$ is expected to remain strong and stable in the medium term.

Unless one intend to trade US$ forex, need not hold US$ in cash. If one is unfamiliar with US stock, could hold in a number of ETF like DIA, SPY and IYR.
*
Just to put you in perspective. If a person keep USD from say, this year, he would have gained around 15-18% in 8 month. Even if the cash is earning nothing in bank.

While if he invest in U.S. Stock, his return is -ve

That is what I mean keeping cash may be better in volatile market.

But everyone has his own strategy. No right or wrong
icemanfx
post Sep 11 2015, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 11 2015, 06:25 AM)
Yallen has a lot to worry about. Too many stakeholders will be affected by her decision. Even people in Malaysia are affected  tongue.gif
*
Fed is responsible to the US, unless the aftermath of international reaction has negative impact on the US economy, it is not Fed's concern.

TSwil-i-am
post Sep 11 2015, 11:51 AM

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Some countries facing possible rating cuts and 'junk' status
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...cuts/?style=biz

M'sia hanging on the cliff
Kilohertz
post Sep 11 2015, 01:24 PM

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So with all the current issues that we are facing now and possible more to come into our way, what's the wisest move to actually hedge your cash to counter inflation, economic instability and etc.? I do trade stocks on and off but looking for something less volatile to invest on.. perhaps someone with experienced or have gone through previous economic crisis can share some tips! smile.gif

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