QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 12 2015, 11:09 AM)
at this time, you don't think it will get worse better it gets better? USD/MYR drop, V2
USD/MYR drop, V2
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Nov 12 2015, 11:10 AM
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All Stars
24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:14 AM
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All Stars
24,344 posts Joined: Feb 2011 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 12 2015, 11:09 AM) Following the "rumours" last time, the update says the "domestic issues" will be solved by 1H16 when "the company" passes the debt to other companies and wind down the exposure. This is the only worry by foreign funds now. Other fundamentals like current account, budget deficit, inflation, unemployment, etc will go back to the "old normal". By then, RM will back to stable like past few years and only the usual external factors like oil price, USD rates hike, Euro/Japan/China QE will affect the RM drastically 1H16 = 16/11 or 16/12?The above is from my "source", who predicted <4.00 by 1H16. Sounds plausible to me |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:20 AM
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All Stars
12,268 posts Joined: Oct 2010 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:22 AM
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Staff
25,802 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Penang |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 12 2015, 09:33 AM) that petronas profit plunge figure is awful. very roughly, it indicates petronas breakeven is about usd55/bbl. You can't derive the cost like that. brent at 46 now, next qtr will hv massive loss? low commodity prices hurt currency, whether rm or aud. aud today gained much, not due to commodity prices up but creation of jobs. can putrajaya do the same? or add to the current >300,000 unemployed grads? The dismay profit figure was being hit the impairment as well. |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:23 AM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 12 2015, 11:10 AM) After wiping 1MDB's arse and cleaning it, ALL will be well. And they are using the perceived increase in NTA to clean up the mess. He told me that is the single most important issue to solve now. And they are facing a "do or die" maneuver because "someone" is chasing them hot on their arse. Foreign funds and rating agencies do not care about other "domestic issues" like 2.6b, but this "systematic threat" to them will affect the whole financial system. Yes, "the company" will eventually be downsizing, make some decent profits and is asset rich instead of deep in debt after the restructuring I believe there will be other new issues crop up after the conclusion of this episode. Which will bring up a new set of drama. Until then, it will be a big sigh of relieve for everyone |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:26 AM
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All Stars
24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:30 AM
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All Stars
12,268 posts Joined: Oct 2010 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 12 2015, 11:23 AM) He told me that is the single most important issue to solve now. And they are facing a "do or die" maneuver because "someone" is chasing them hot on their arse. Foreign funds and rating agencies do not care about other "domestic issues" like 2.6b, but this "systematic threat" to them will affect the whole financial system. SorryYes, "the company" will eventually be downsizing, make some decent profits and is asset rich instead of deep in debt after the restructuring I believe there will be other new issues crop up after the conclusion of this episode. Which will bring up a new set of drama. Until then, it will be a big sigh of relieve for everyone Are you saying its not 1MDB, but something else? |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:30 AM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 12 2015, 11:10 AM) Don't know leh....I think Fed rates hike and oil price will still affect the RM very much. According to my source, the restructuring will be done, just a matter of time. If he is true, then RM will be back to <4.00, all else being equalWith the recent obvious government moves to cut down subsidies, mooting GST rate increase, tol rates, sin taxes rise and all those unpopular policies, they seemed to be more interested to please the foreign funds and rating agencies than their voters. Maybe they think there is still time before the next election If all these are taken into account, I think RM will not be worse off than now |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:31 AM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:32 AM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:33 AM
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All Stars
12,268 posts Joined: Oct 2010 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 12 2015, 11:30 AM) Don't know leh....I think Fed rates hike and oil price will still affect the RM very much. According to my source, the restructuring will be done, just a matter of time. If he is true, then RM will be back to <4.00, all else being equal Our gomen thrives on DEBT. They have to be pleasing the foreign ex colonists of rating agencies.With the recent obvious government moves to cut down subsidies, mooting GST rate increase, tol rates, sin taxes rise and all those unpopular policies, they seemed to be more interested to please the foreign funds and rating agencies than their voters. Maybe they think there is still time before the next election If all these are taken into account, I think RM will not be worse off than now Otherwise its high borrowing coming in. |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:34 AM
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All Stars
12,268 posts Joined: Oct 2010 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:38 AM
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All Stars
24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 12 2015, 11:33 AM) Our gomen thrives on DEBT. They have to be pleasing the foreign ex colonists of rating agencies. this is probably the most prime thing, gotta keep the debt coming.Otherwise its high borrowing coming in. for the last 3 decades, debt has been funding everything from tv's to handouts to buying foreign props. i hv no doubt a few things are more than certain to happen to enable procurement of more debt - gst incr, sale of prime/bumi land, signing tppa. |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:41 AM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 12 2015, 11:33 AM) Our gomen thrives on DEBT. They have to be pleasing the foreign ex colonists of rating agencies. Exactly. They cannot afford a rating downgrade. A rough calculation - interest cost will be RM6b for every 1% (assuming RM600b debt). If MGS become junks, then it could be 6-8% (?) difference from nowOtherwise its high borrowing coming in. The effect to the economy will definitely bring them down from power The pressure from foreign funds and rating agencies is definitely greater than their rural voters |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:42 AM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:48 AM
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All Stars
12,268 posts Joined: Oct 2010 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:53 AM
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All Stars
24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Nov 12 2015, 11:55 AM
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All Stars
12,268 posts Joined: Oct 2010 |
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Nov 12 2015, 12:09 PM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 12 2015, 11:48 AM) They are not sochai. In fact they are very smart. In the sense that they know who matters the most to themContrary to most of us believe, "his" position is very secured. No one can touch him now. He actually sleeps very soundly at night. He has his grassroot firmly behind his back. Depending on the situation closer to GE14, he can choose to continue or pass the baton to his own people. He can "cross control" them just in case any one of them go against his will, one can replace the other. He already has this plan B. If he thinks the 2.6 issue fades away before 2018, then he will carry on with the desired plan A Now all he needs to do is manage the "elders" and "foreign funds and credit agencies". Urban voters is the least of his worries. Tol will not affect them. Subsidies like petrol, rice, electricity etc can be reimburse through brim. Whereas GST increase will make the credit agencies happy Looking at his position and what he can do, RM appreciation will be the by product |
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Nov 12 2015, 12:14 PM
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All Stars
24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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