Malaysian five-year credit- default swaps (CDS) have risen to the fourth-fastest in the world year-to-date as traders bet on the country’s possible default rate.
The cost of compensating Malaysia’s creditors in the event of a default has jumped 118.18 basis points (bps) over the last 12 months, surpassed by only Brazil (+289bps), Greece (+333.59bps), and Venezuela (+2548.28 bps), according to a Bloomberg data.
Data also show Malaysia’s five-year CDS spread was traded at 209bps at 8.46pm last Friday, the fifth-highest in the world after Turkey (253.62 bps), Brazil (460bps), Greece (1,063.98bps) and Venezuela (4,512.5bps).
Brazil is grappling with a corruption scandal embroiling state-run Petrobras as well as accusations that President Dilma Rousseff doctored fiscal accounts, while Venezuela’s fundamental has been rocked after crude oil prices dropped 60% and impacted the country’s revenue.
CDS insuring Malaysia’s local currency bonds rose to its highest since the 2009 financial crisis, with the 10-year government bond yields increasing as high as 4.3% this quarter.
About RM166.1 billion of Malaysia’s foreign-owned debt is in Malaysian Government Securities and Government Investment Issues, making up around 30.4% of the government’s total debt.
Negative news have caused speculators to hedge bets on Malaysia’s default rate, said Lee Tien Xiang, an analyst at Fundsupermart.com, an international retail investment advisory.
“CDS traders are speculating on an increased probability that Malaysia will default,” said Lee. The situation is exacerbated by the drop in ringgit’s value and high fund outflows from the equity market, the analyst said.
These developments, however, are making Malaysian government debt papers more attractive to foreign investors, who are betting on a ringgit rebound. “The ringgit is undervalued,” said Gerald Ambrose, who oversees some US$3.6 billion (RM15.57 billion) in assets as CEO of Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Bhd in Kuala Lumpur.
Aberdeen holds Malaysian Government Securities within its regional funds, Ambrose said.
“Malaysian government debts are an attractive investment for the long term and current yields might go up a bit higher,” said Ambrose, adding that short-term investors could lock in profit from the exchange rate.
The ringgit has dropped about 16% this year alone. The ringgit rose 1.06% to 4.2382 against the US dollar last Friday as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Razak announced measures to combat declining oil revenues through the introduction of increased “rich taxes” on individuals with annual incomes of more than RM600,000.
http://www.themalaysianreserve.com/new/sto...h-fastest-world