But what would you have said when it went from 3.3 to 3.7, 3.7 to 4.0, 4.0 to 4.3?

I see it the other way round... Some small bad news will just drive to back to 4.3, 4.4.

Becos be it crude, cpo, budget, exports or tourism, there is nothing at this time to strengthen the rm but everything that's weakening it.

3.3 to 3.8 takes a few months time & it is the beginning of bear trend which is usually fall fast.

3.8 to 4.3 drop within a month is actually the result of Bank negara trying to use reserve to hold 3.8 for months. (the market already price in it isnt worth 3.8). When BNM decide to let it go, u know what happen next.

Everyone already know RM is bad, they are generally priced in. What is missing is a serious bad news to surprise everyone to push it further below 4.4, if that is not coming I do not see a big swing move to RM, may be a slow grind downwards, but a move like 3.8-4.3 without reason? unlikely.

This post has been edited by billytong: Oct 24 2015, 07:15 PM

Everyone has reasons to explain everything, ya?

Really, it is an individual game.... Just hold on to what you think is coming!

Somebody has to lose so that somebody else will gain.

Me, I just try not to lose to let crooked politicians and their supporters take my blood sweat and tears money.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 24 2015, 07:31 PM

It is usually the surprise bad news that is going to make RM slide be it politician or anything economic related

Frankly speaking, it is just as risky to short RM right now vs long RM.

At this time, I see it 70:30 against the rm.

Anyway, good luck, we all need it.

As always..... it is the politician & gov policy that makes economy unpredictable.

I wud long USD

Markets move in anticipation. For example, US Central bank impending rising interest rates sends EM currencies south.

Fundamentals are secondary, all economist will say something like RM will settle at 4.0 or some figure to justify the "strong economic" fundamentals. But as we know, it never becomes the case.

Nope, Najib are always right, economy in Malaysia do have strong fundamentals, throttle your Screamyx 4mbps package to <1mbps just to force you take Unifi Advance 30/50 package(will a person add minimum just to get VIP5?).
TNB will increase the tariff next year as to justify with Najib's reducing subsidies, but natural gas are "imported" from Sarawak.
We need to pay AP for cars that we buy
Economist are hired by speculators, if no speculations, no volatile market, no volatile market, speculators can't make money.

std chart... neutral?!

end of 2015... 3.75 -> 4.05 -> 4.25

but ya, markets unpredictable... this bank looks like a headless chicken.

Report from Bank based on fundamentals analysis
However, actual movement based on 'perception' mentality

"fundamental analysis" is over rated, no use in investing.

does ringgit will continuous weakening against usd until mid of 2016?

this monday i expect rm4.4

china lowered their interest rate again really do affect other major currency, what to expect from rm?

This post has been edited by hazard_puppet: Oct 25 2015, 12:14 PM

4.5 at least i'd reckon

history are made by victors...duh

Good catch.

On a side note china's lowering of interest rates might have another domino effect in the making? Just like in the previous yuan devaluation.

so next week MYR gonna get weaker

what china is doing is obvious - they will do what it takes to keep >7% gdp growth.

devalue, cut rates to allow cheaper rmb to export more.

if it gets worse, they will devalue again.

this put downward pressure on currencies of major trading partners be it rm, aud or sgd.



i missed this forecast made a month ago, looking realistic now.

So they are indirectly trying to prevent US from raising rates?