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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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prody
post Oct 9 2015, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 9 2015, 09:04 AM)
An interview with another fund mgr at CHannel News Asia this morning mentioned that the Feds is still on-track for a rate hike come-December 2015. The ten-year bond yields are signalling that.

A possible situation now could be the Feds dare not talk too much about a rate hike because they just don't now when to do it,... but at the mtg in December, they just hike it.

Chna is putting a lot of stimuli to strengthen the economy.

All said, now is still a good time to buy-in into the USD gradually.

I maintain my earlier position : no way no hike - only that the timeline needs to be stretched slightly. If the Feds can stretch, so can I,...  smile.gif

In the meantime, talks about Sgp's economy going into a technical recession is slowing. MAS mtg is approaching - ann't is due on next Wednesday morning.
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Currently there is a 38% chance of a rate hike in December.
yck1987
post Oct 9 2015, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 9 2015, 10:55 AM)
this is the trillion $ question, isn't it?

the situation is very fluid and changes every day or week.

weak or strong usd will continue to drive direction of commodity, stocks and bond prices as it has for the past 1 yr.

imo, futile to try to read the fed, can only not fight it.

good if u r very convinced which way to go.

i am not so sure which way it will go from here... sweat.gif
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If MAS to ease policy by this time round next week, will it benefit of exchanging part of my SGD to USD now and expect the weaken of SGD later on?
Hansel
post Oct 9 2015, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 9 2015, 09:12 AM)
Since Bernanke took over era, Fed never had a sudden or surprise move in rate decision, or even QE.
They always "communicate" with the market, and let the market has "hint" before next move one to avoid sudden shock to the market.

Fed's minutes already mentioned they are data depended, so next month or 2 job data and inflation figure may hold the key card.
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Bernanke is no more in-charge now. If you have watched Bloomberg last night, Bernanke had 2 dialogues with the Bloomberg personalities - one with the daily Bloomberg reporters and another with Charlie Rose. In both dialogues, he mentioned that his successor, Ms Janet Yellen is doing a great job, no doubt things have been very unpredictable. At the same time, he said, in both dialogues, that he will support whatever approach Ms Yellen will undertake, including any form of hikes that may be decided upon, regardless of after ann't or not.

Sure - data-dependant, but may I say that the data dependency factor that used to rely on US data only has now encompassed the whole world. I know,.. data-dependant, but when the form of data-dependency starts evolving, then the Feds is signalling to me that their data-dependency criteria is not reliable.

It's like,... I promise something at one point in time, but later on, my 'form of the promise' has changed. YES, it is still a promise, but since the form of promise has changed, then the EARLIER promise cannot be kept anymore. SO it's easy, I'll just keep changing the form of my promise in order not to keep the earlier promise. It's NOT a promise after all.

Anyway,...it's okay,.. I always believed in covering ALL the corners. I'll cover ALL the corners again this time.
yck1987
post Oct 9 2015, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 9 2015, 11:09 AM)
Short USD now to make $, anyone?
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I'm planning to do opposite way, buy more USD. What's ur thought?
TSwil-i-am
post Oct 9 2015, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Oct 9 2015, 11:22 AM)
I'm planning to do opposite way, buy more USD. What's ur thought?
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The direction is changing
Y u want to go against it now?

yck1987
post Oct 9 2015, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 9 2015, 11:27 AM)
The direction is changing
Y u want to go against it now?
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I dont usually follow the flow ma. Not sure right or not hmm.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Oct 9 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Oct 9 2015, 11:28 AM)
I dont usually follow the flow ma. Not sure right or not  hmm.gif
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Now u will witness herd mentality
AVFAN
post Oct 9 2015, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Oct 9 2015, 11:21 AM)
If MAS to ease policy by this time round next week, will it benefit of exchanging part of my SGD to USD now and expect the weaken of SGD later on?
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i have always held the view sg's mas monetary policy as highly prudent and do what's best for the sgd for the total economy.

i dun see major movements with sgd coming, esp with a wekening usd now.

i am neutral at this time - assuming u are diversified usd-sgd-rm, hold what u have - movements will cancel out among themselves overall.

if 100% in one currency, i do not have a view at this time what to do, if anything. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 9 2015, 11:35 AM
Hansel
post Oct 9 2015, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 9 2015, 09:13 AM)
Unlikely.
2.90 and 4.0 is considered good enough already for near term.
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I noticed that you edited your posting by removing the statement : Unless the political situation changes.

Well,.. I can't tell too whether 2.90 and 4.00 are the new normal, and whether these new normals will stand if the political situation changes.

For me, I'm still TT'ing out my funds into the SGD for now, but stopping for awhile for the USD. I don't intend to stop TT'ing out my funds after what happened in Msia the last few months !

I will look at the very long term, and my bet for the longterm is the MYR will still lose-out to foreign currencies. It is still better to earn in foreign currencies and not necessary (legally) to pay taxes to the LHDN.

My EPF and my props in Msia will suffice to ensure I have some Msian holdings. The rest, all out.

After that fiasco with ASX, I have looked very hard outside of the country, it's tough, but I am beginning to see there are better investment opportunities outside of ASX's, outside of Msia. There is a saying in life : don't give opportunities for someone to try something. IF an opportunity is given and the person tries things out, then he might succeed, and that person will follow the new ideas from then on.

Anyway, I am using only small amounts (in the region of a few thousands of RM equivalent) to try-out in a few of such fixed-income instruments outside of the country, and a few of the instruments look resilient. The 'feel' that I am getting is more and more confidence in my heart.

Never try, never know.

I'm okay with 2.90 and 4.00 for the SGD and the USD respectively,... it will maintain my wealth position at such currency levels, with the major portion of my wealth outside of Msia. I hoped you are right !
nexona88
post Oct 9 2015, 11:48 AM

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1.00 USD = 4.13309 MYR

1.00 SGD = 2.94761 MYR

1.00 GBP = 6.35331 MYR

hmm.gif
Ramjade
post Oct 9 2015, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 9 2015, 11:48 AM)
1.00 USD  =  4.13309 MYR

1.00 SGD  =  2.94761 MYR

1.00 GBP  =  6.35331 MYR

hmm.gif
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Go! Go! Go! Beach 3.8 brows.gif
Hansel
post Oct 9 2015, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Oct 9 2015, 11:21 AM)
If MAS to ease policy by this time round next week, will it benefit of exchanging part of my SGD to USD now and expect the weaken of SGD later on?
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The prb with the SGD is we can't easily predict how much it will weaken and for how long will it remain weak. In very brutal words : it's bloody strong.

Unlike the RM, when the RM was weakening continuously the last few months, we can tell that easily and it weakened for A FEW MONTHS all the way down.

Look at this graph : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDSGD%...ing":true}

The MAS eased the SGD on Jan 15 this year. Do you really see the SGD weakening that badly against the USD immediately after that ? I think it's not worth the spread.
nexona88
post Oct 9 2015, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 9 2015, 11:49 AM)
Go! Go! Go! Beach 3.8  brows.gif
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I wonder if got to do with TPPA thingy hmm.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 11:55 AM

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I agree with Hansel. It is a good time to buy now. Buy bit by bit if you are a prudent person.

While we concentrate on the USD now, let's don't forget the problem we have in malaysia is never solved. If the rumour in 2-3 pages back is true, then I agree RM will appreciate back to sub-4.00 level. But I don't quite buy that would happen in short term

A few days later when another piece of news from USA suddenly appears, then everything change again tongue.gif


Hansel
post Oct 9 2015, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 9 2015, 11:27 AM)
The direction is changing
Y u want to go against it now?
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If you are a trader, then yes, follow the short term trend. But please put in tighter SL positions.

Hansel
post Oct 9 2015, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Oct 9 2015, 11:22 AM)
I'm planning to do opposite way, buy more USD. What's ur thought?
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I'll do this. But wait till it falls a little bit more, till,... 4.05. Then fire a bit,.... don't hammer in everything. If it breaches 4.00,... then,...sorry, need to check graphs again.
cherroy
post Oct 9 2015, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 9 2015, 11:38 AM)
I noticed that you edited your posting by removing the statement : Unless the political situation changes.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


I'm okay with 2.90 and 4.00 for the SGD and the USD respectively,... it will maintain my wealth position at such currency levels, with the major portion of my wealth outside of Msia. I hoped you are right !
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This is finance section and and it is best interest that no political issues being raised so that it won't be derailed into others, this is the reason why the post being edited.

Actually, how the forex movement won't affect you too much if you are already diversified well.

So we don't need to be too obsess the rate is at what level. smile.gif
And also don't need to be too obsess with one particular currency, asset nor asset class.
No single class of asset blossom forever.
keeystar
post Oct 9 2015, 12:01 PM

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new here, didnt buy any foreign currency because dono how to keep the currency..
just realize can open currency account in SG

i intend to buy in USD when USD - SGD at 1.40, which is pretty close now, wise move? or better to wait abit?
im quite concern with the MAS meeting next week

cherroy
post Oct 9 2015, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 9 2015, 11:52 AM)
The prb with the SGD is we can't easily predict how much it will weaken and for how long will it remain weak. In very brutal words : it's bloody strong.

Unlike the RM, when the RM was weakening continuously the last few months, we can tell that easily and it weakened for A FEW MONTHS all the way down.

Look at this graph : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDSGD%...ing":true}

The MAS eased the SGD on Jan 15 this year. Do you really see the SGD weakening that badly against the USD immediately after that ? I think it's not worth the spread.
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From the history,
SGD is always stay at the "strong" side one.

Even MAS may adopt easing bias, SGD may not be too weak one.
Hansel
post Oct 9 2015, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 9 2015, 11:55 AM)
I agree with Hansel. It is a good time to buy now. Buy bit by bit if you are a prudent person.

While we concentrate on the USD now, let's don't forget the problem we have in malaysia is never solved. If the rumour in 2-3 pages back is true, then I agree RM will appreciate back to sub-4.00 level. But I don't quite buy that would happen in short term

A few days later when another piece of news from USA suddenly appears, then everything change again  tongue.gif
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Bro,.. even if the RM does strengthen back to sub-4.00 level, you still have your business generating RM and your big EPF chest and your props, and I'm sure there are many other numerous things you have in our natural currency.

So, whatever extras you have now, change it into the foreign currency.

The recent experience has PROVEN TO ALL OF US THAT THE RM CAN REALLY DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN. It is not a one-off event. Provided the Gov't does not intervene by pegging, the RM can really drop, man,...

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