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 Fundsupermart.com v11, Grexit or not, Europe will sail on...

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kimyee73
post Aug 11 2015, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Aug 11 2015, 11:35 AM)
Real Investors talk about IRR or xIRR because they will hold their investment assets over a period of multi-years.

Punters aka speculators will talk about ROI because they will hold their stock in hand over a period of perhaps hours, days or week.

IRR or xIRR is meaningless to punters and ROI is meaningless to Real Investors.

ROI is a measurement of gain per trade; whereas IRR or xIRR is a measurement of gain over a period (p.a. is the standard measurement).

So which one are you? Punter or Real Investors?

Many Punters will disguise or trick themselves thinking they are investors.

Xuzen
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I'm both. My unit trust is for investment and my Ameritrade account is for trading.
nexona88
post Aug 11 2015, 02:02 PM

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Greece and its international lenders were locked in marathon talks overnight to seal a multi billion-euro bailout deal on Tuesday, racing against a countdown to European Central Bank debt repayments falling due in days.

The indebted country is hoping to wrap up a deal for 86 billion euros ($94.75 billion) in fresh loans so it can get parliamentary and other approvals for aid to flow by Aug. 20, when a 3.2 billion euro debt payment is due to the ECB.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/g...al?type=Markets
SUSDavid83
post Aug 11 2015, 02:12 PM

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U.S. dollar on the rise as China devalues yuan

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar lunged higher on Tuesday as China allowed its yuan to fall to three-year lows, a shift that heightened unease about the world's second-largest economy even as it promised a much-needed boost to export.

Asian stocks slipped and sovereign bonds rallied as investors weighed the implications of the surprise move, which seemed to end months of officially sanctioned yuan strength.

China's central bank described the move as a "one-off depreciation" of nearly 2 percent, and said it was based on a new way of managing the exchange rate that better reflected market forces.

URL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-...-002632659.html


j.passing.by
post Aug 11 2015, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Aug 11 2015, 06:38 AM)
rclxms.gif  thanks for clarifying..... notworthy.gif
hmm.gif so when the maths is correct then obviously it can be used as a meaningful representation too?
*
Yes, it depends on how you use the numbers, as any numbers in itself has not much meaning. For example, the average of 3 numbers is 4. We can only confirmed that the sum of the 3 numbers is 12; we cannot tell for sure what the 3 numbers are.

They can be 4+4+4 or 3+4+5 or 42-10-20 or any other possibilities we can try to guess.

So similarly, if someone said that Fund A has a 10-year IRR of 10%; we can only tell for sure that the "end value divided by the start value" is:
= (110%)^10 = 2.59374%

And if the start value is RM1000, then the end value is 1000 x 2.59374% = RM2593.74; and the ROI is RM1593.74. But this is a big if, and we are trying to guess what is the start value to calculate what is the ROI in dollar (or rather ringgit) amount.

As in the above example of the average of 3 numbers, we can only work out the total sum of the 3 numbers. Similarly, in the 10-year IRR of 10%, we can only work out the percentage of ""end value divided by the start value".

So, if we try to put in any other guesses or further assumptions into the numbers, it is up to you and your own good judgement!

Let's say if I'm a agent selling Fund A, and only show you the 10-year annualised rate of 10%; and if you mistakenly conclude that Fund A consistently gives a 10% growth rate each year, and you will have a gain of 10% after holding it for 1 year, then up to you, lor... should I say anything more to discourage the purchase? tongue.gif

==========

Correction: there is an error in the decimal... the ROI% should be 259.3742%.



This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Aug 11 2015, 05:43 PM
Kaka23
post Aug 11 2015, 02:47 PM

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No promo on FSM funds? sad.gif
cybermaster98
post Aug 11 2015, 02:51 PM

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So what are the latest funds you guys invested in since last week?
xuzen
post Aug 11 2015, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Aug 11 2015, 02:39 PM)
Yes, it depends on how you use the numbers, as any numbers in itself has not much meaning. For example, the average of 3 numbers is 4. We can only confirmed that the sum of the 3 numbers is 12; we cannot tell for sure what the 3 numbers are.

They can be 4+4+4 or 3+4+5 or 42-10-20 or any other possibilities we can try to guess.

So similarly, if someone said that Fund A has a 10-year IRR of 10%; we can only tell for sure that the "end value divided by the start value" is:
= (110%)^10 = 2.5937%

And if the start value is RM1000, then the end value is 1000 x 2.59374% = RM2593.74; and the ROI is RM1593.74. But this is a big if, and we are trying to guess what is the start value to calculate what is the ROI in dollar (or rather ringgit) amount.

As in the above example of the average of 3 numbers, we can only work out the total sum of the 3 numbers. Similarly, in the 10-year IRR of 10%, we can only work out the percentage of ""end value divided by the start value".

So, if we try to put in any other guesses or further assumptions into the numbers, it is up to you and your own good judgement!

Let's say if I'm a agent selling Fund A, and only show you the 10-year annualised rate of 10%; and if you mistakenly conclude that Fund A consistently gives a 10% growth rate each year, and you will have a gain of 10% after holding it for 1 year, then up to you, lor... should I say anything more to discourage the purchase?  tongue.gif
*
That is why looking at return per se is like looking at a 2D picture. You need another parameter to make it more realistic so call 3D.

And that parameter is volatility aka standard deviation. Another way of saying is how consistent the fund maintain that 10% p.a.

Say a Fund A that gives a CAGR of 10% for the past 10 years with a sta-dev of 10% versus a Fund B of CAGR 10% for the past ten years but with a sta-dev of 5%. Which is a more consistent fund?

Answer: B for its consistency. The lower the sta-dev the more consistent the fund is able to hit the 10% return.

And a smart investor should choose a consistent fund.

Xuzen


xuzen
post Aug 11 2015, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Aug 11 2015, 02:51 PM)
So what are the latest funds you guys invested in since last week?
*
US & India icon_rolleyes.gif

Reduced China cry.gif

Xuzen
cybermaster98
post Aug 11 2015, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Aug 11 2015, 02:54 PM)
US & India  icon_rolleyes.gif

Reduced China  cry.gif

Xuzen
Yeah I too think its time to reduce my China exposure a bit. What funds for US?

Im also thinking if I should withdraw all my funds and bank it back into ASB. Ive broken even now but still a 'loss' if you consider the loss of potential interest from mid last year. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Aug 11 2015, 02:59 PM
j.passing.by
post Aug 11 2015, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(ohcipala @ Aug 11 2015, 09:16 AM)
Saved as reference thumbup.gif
BTW, if I'm using DCA, then I have to use the XIRR method right?
*
Yes, the excel function XIRR is easy to use, and will gives the IRR on a series of purchases.

It can be used to find the IRR of each fund bought in various times, as well as on a grouping of several funds, and on the entire portfolio too.

The function only needs a column of dates, and a column of values, for example:
25/01/2013 -RM1,000.00
01/06/2014 -RM1,000.00
30/07/2014 -RM1,500.00
10/03/2015 -RM2,000.00
31/07/2015 RM6,000.00

IRR (as at 31st July) = 8.18%
ROI = RM500
ROI% = 500 / 5500 = 9.09%




IvanWong1989
post Aug 11 2015, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Aug 11 2015, 02:12 PM)
U.S. dollar on the rise as China devalues yuan

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar lunged higher on Tuesday as China allowed its yuan to fall to three-year lows, a shift that heightened unease about the world's second-largest economy even as it promised a much-needed boost to export.

Asian stocks slipped and sovereign bonds rallied as investors weighed the implications of the surprise move, which seemed to end months of officially sanctioned yuan strength.

China's central bank described the move as a "one-off depreciation" of nearly 2 percent, and said it was based on a new way of managing the exchange rate that better reflected market forces.

URL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-...-002632659.html
*
Hmm.... USD rises more again..@@....


QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Aug 11 2015, 02:51 PM)
So what are the latest funds you guys invested in since last week?
*
Imaginary in my head. Global Titanic. yawn.gif
wil-i-am
post Aug 11 2015, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Aug 11 2015, 02:47 PM)
No promo on FSM funds? sad.gif
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Merdeka promotion in the pipeline? hmm.gif
SUSyklooi
post Aug 11 2015, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Aug 11 2015, 02:39 PM)
Yes, it depends on how you use the numbers, as any numbers in itself has not much meaning. For example, the average of 3 numbers is 4. We can only confirmed that the sum of the 3 numbers is 12; we cannot tell for sure what the 3 numbers are.

They can be 4+4+4 or 3+4+5 or 42-10-20 or any other possibilities we can try to guess.

So similarly, if someone said that Fund A has a 10-year IRR of 10%; we can only tell for sure that the "end value divided by the start value" is:
= (110%)^10 = 2.5937%


*
rephrased the question in post# 1118...
so when the maths is correct then obviously it can be used as a meaningful representation even if the investment is less than 1 year?

This post has been edited by yklooi: Aug 11 2015, 04:08 PM
river.sand
post Aug 11 2015, 05:17 PM

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1 USD = 3.99 MYR doh.gif

I need to edit my siggy soon cry.gif
IvanWong1989
post Aug 11 2015, 05:43 PM

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my gut feeling was going to be true. ><... reach 4.0 by the end of this month....
wil-i-am
post Aug 11 2015, 06:01 PM

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Now @ 1.00 USD = 4.00483 MYR
j.passing.by
post Aug 11 2015, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Aug 11 2015, 04:07 PM)
rephrased the question in post# 1118...
so when the maths is correct then obviously it can be used as a meaningful representation even if the investment is less than 1 year?
*
Please slowly read again post #1117. The answer is there, just that you are too preoccupied with a misconception, and not letting in any new info to flow into the grey cells, and allowing the misconception to hinder you from working it through on your own... rclxub.gif

I think the only thing I left out is that IRR is both an anualised and a compounded rate.

And without repeating myself... part of post #1117 recopied:
"The former fund could be a money-market fund, and the latter a volatile fund. And yes, the latter fund has a very huge IRR, since, inside the maths, it was projected to grow 3% every day for 365 days, and it was being compounded daily!"

If we looked into the formula: (???%)^(1/n)-1
If n is less than 1 year... or we can be very specific using the below examples:

If it is 1 day, then n is (1/365); and the formula will be ^(1/(1/365) = ^365.
If it is 30 days, then n is (30/365); and the formula will be ^(1/(30/365) = ^12.17.
If it is 10 months, then n is (10/12); and the formula will be ^(1/(10/12) = ^1.20.


So, this means, when it is 1 day, that we are compounding it 365 times. And when it is 10 months, we only compounded it 1.2 times.

In other words, we are projecting or extrapolating the ROI% to its annualised IRR rate, and how many times we are extrapolating it depends on how closed is the investment time to 1-year. The shorter is the invested time, the more times we are extrapolating it.

So, if you truly understand how the maths works, and the whole process of converting the ROI% to IRR, then it is up to you whether you want to do it or not. Then the answer is obvious whether it is still "a meaningful representation even if the investment is less than 1 year".

Let the above thoughts sink in first, before giving up! smile.gif

=============

If it is 12 months, then n is (12/12); and the formula will be ^(1/(12/12) = ^1.00.
If it is 36 months, then n is (36/12); and the formula will be ^(1/(36/12) = ^0.333.
So, when n is greater than 1 year, the IRR is sort of averaging down the ROI.

As said before, if we cash out of any investment, ROI is maintained. And if we put the cash under the bed, the IRR is slowly reducing with time...




pisces88
post Aug 11 2015, 06:34 PM

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this month probably will have merdeka promo, they have it evry year right? last year 0.57% sales charge
SUSPink Spider
post Aug 11 2015, 06:38 PM

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I miss my Alliance Global Bond Fund which have huge US Treasurys exposure cry.gif
SUSyklooi
post Aug 11 2015, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Aug 11 2015, 06:29 PM)
Please slowly read again post #1117. The answer is there, just that you are too preoccupied with a misconception, and not letting in any new info to flow into the grey cells, and allowing the misconception to hinder you from working it through on your own...  rclxub.gif
...................
*
rclxms.gif notworthy.gif thanks for taking the time and patient to explain.... thumbup.gif

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