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 Falling Oil Prices - Where it leaves Malaysia, Not too bad afterall

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Artus
post Jan 18 2015, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 18 2015, 09:35 AM)
i don't know what gomen debt/gdp can really tell us.
might be more useful to look at total int/ext, public/private, gomen/household debt levels...?
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Maybe you should look at Singapore's gov debt levels:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=s...ent-debt-to-gdp
Showtime747
post Jan 18 2015, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 18 2015, 09:35 AM)
this is the billion rm question, isn't it?!
i doubt anyone knows, not even bnm. but one can take a position, maybe as a hedge.
i m of the view the state of my's economy/rm is not all about oil.

a diff perspective.... when sgd=rm2.30, we thought it had gone far enough. then 2.50. now, almost 2.7.
how low can it go? 2.80, 3.0? or return to 2.50, 2.30? reasons?

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I would take any position that can make money. Short term there are opportunity. Long term also there are opportunity. Why would we give more weight to long term than short term ?

Like risk management, we should not only hold long term position in our investment. Nothing should be too rigid, or 1 rule rules all. I always believe in flexibility as investment is very fluid

It is just my view that the upside is more than the downside of the RM and oil price at this point in time. No oil producing countries will make much money below $40. That's why I predict the worst is already here. If a person has not already diversify their portfolio, it is not worthy to do it now
adamdacutie
post Jan 23 2015, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 18 2015, 11:11 AM)
I would take any position that can make money. Short term there are opportunity. Long term also there are opportunity. Why would we give more weight to long term than short term ? 

Like risk management, we should not only hold long term position in our investment. Nothing should be too rigid, or 1 rule rules all. I always believe in flexibility as investment is very fluid 

It is just my view that the upside is more than the downside of the RM and oil price at this point in time. No oil producing countries will make much money below $40. That's why I predict the worst is already here. If a person has not already diversify their portfolio, it is not worthy to do it now
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totally agreed .

my 2 cents
Winners do not chuck during the low but to aim at undervalued and park the money looking for greater return in the future ...
Losers are usually kiasu ppl , drop - worry , drop drop - cannot sleep , drop drop drop - panic attack , drop drop drop drop - sell off and hoping the next day things get worse n feel lucky to have done the selling early ... rebound - aiya y i sell it ! , up up - damn ! waiting that to go down first then i'll buy , up up up - damn I am buying it !!! up up up up - yeah !!!! DROP - FML !
Showtime747
post Jan 24 2015, 06:51 AM

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QUOTE(adamdacutie @ Jan 23 2015, 10:28 PM)
totally agreed .

my 2 cents
Winners do not chuck during the low but to aim at undervalued and park the money looking for greater return in the future ...
Losers are usually kiasu ppl , drop - worry , drop drop - cannot sleep , drop drop drop - panic attack , drop drop drop drop - sell off and hoping the next day things get worse n feel lucky to have done the selling early  ... rebound - aiya y i sell it ! , up up - damn ! waiting that to go down first then i'll buy , up up up - damn I am buying it !!! up up up up - yeah !!!! DROP - FML !
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http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/201...illustrated.png

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ZZMsia
post Jan 25 2015, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Jan 14 2015, 10:24 AM)
AVFAN,

It is NOT as long as it only affects RAKYAT but not THE GOVERNMENT.  For example, oil subsidy cut.  Gas subsidy cut and increase electric bill..

Dreamer
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Dreamer has been proven WRONG! Electricity and gas hikes were stalled..
dreamer101
post Jan 25 2015, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(ZZMsia @ Jan 25 2015, 01:35 PM)
Dreamer has been proven WRONG! Electricity  and gas hikes were stalled..
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ZZMsia,

Gas price had dropped substantially. To match the drop in gas price, electricity and gas price need to drop. But, the electricity and gas price pay by the consumer did not drop. So, either THE GOVERNMENT pay a lot less subsidy or THE GOVERNMENT is collecting tax now or both. So, where does the money goes?? The savings are not pass to the consumer...

Dreamer


repusez
post Jan 26 2015, 08:35 AM

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http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sidevie...-sin-chew-daily

Moreover, the government hiked electricity tariff by 16% in January last year due to the then high international crude oil price.

It triggered dissatisfaction among business operators as the tariff has not been reduced even though the oil price has now plummeted.

The public opines that although the country's electricity relies mainly on coal and natural gas, but since they are alternatives to petroleum, their prices had fluctuated with the oil price and so, the cost should have been reduced since oil price has fallen.

The Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry's argument saying plummeting oil price does not help in lowering electricity tariff does not seem convincing.

After the crude oil price fell last year, the Singapore government announced 8% of reduction in electricity tariff on January 1 this year while Sarawak Chief Minister Datuk Seri Adenan Satem announced on November 20 last year a reduction in electricity tariff by 40%.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sidevie...h.mDegcUBw.dpuf
AVFAN
post Jan 29 2015, 10:32 AM

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just for the record...

today:

crude = usd44.50

usd = rm3.6375
Hansel
post Jan 29 2015, 08:24 PM

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dwin95
post Jan 30 2015, 04:06 AM

wow i finally get to type here since 2009
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I feel that is price war for oil will not meet an end anytime soon. As long as America is able to supply to it's own people at the least, isn't that at least borderline sustainable for them to continue on with this price?
Battlefield1942
post Jan 30 2015, 09:14 AM

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The up and down of the economy present one with a opportunity as well as risk. Those who plan for it will benefits while those who over extend will facing risk of their own making. The GDP chart is not as simple as one see on that page as it does not take into account the debt transfer to special purpose vehicle. Who do you think end up paying for it? Other countries/IMF paying for it? Off course we are the one - the rakyat. The 1997 ghost project that stall took nearly 15 years to revive and some still left standing. Idxxs Hydrolixxc...anyone remember that saga?
nexona88
post Jan 30 2015, 02:17 PM

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How The American Shale Boom Warped The Oil Production Cost Curve
http://www.businessinsider.my/markets-char...QuqgypdX3gb6.99
Kaka23
post Feb 3 2015, 05:35 PM

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Oil price drop.. but today I went drink kopi ice. Price up by 10cents.. tongue.gif
nexona88
post Feb 3 2015, 06:12 PM

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Hansel
post Feb 4 2015, 02:55 PM

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OIl price shot up to USD56/boe (Brent crude).
nexona88
post Feb 4 2015, 04:11 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 4 2015, 02:55 PM)
OIl price shot up to USD56/boe (Brent crude).
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I heard it's 20% up in past 4days ohmy.gif shocking.gif
Hansel
post Feb 4 2015, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Feb 4 2015, 05:11 PM)
I heard it's 20% up in past 4days  ohmy.gif  shocking.gif
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Tht's right - up continuously for the last four days. But as of 2 hrs ago, it fell, and now, turnd upwrds agin.

nexona88
post Feb 4 2015, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 4 2015, 05:08 PM)
Tht's right - up continuously for the last four days. But as of 2 hrs ago, it fell, and now, turnd upwrds agin.
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someone said that the upward trend is temporary only not sustainable for longer period hmm.gif
Hansel
post Feb 4 2015, 05:55 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Feb 4 2015, 06:13 PM)
someone said that the upward trend is temporary only not sustainable for longer period  hmm.gif
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YOu re right. All th personalties interviewd on Bloombrg tody said the same thing till now.

nexona88
post Feb 4 2015, 05:55 PM

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Oil prices to average at US$53 a barrel this year, says World Bank

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