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 Falling Oil Prices - Where it leaves Malaysia, Not too bad afterall

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Artus
post Jan 18 2015, 02:30 AM

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QUOTE(BillySteel @ Jan 16 2015, 05:18 AM)
There is a reason why bloomberg is highly held for its market research and news.

I dont really bother much reading the rest.

Oil/gas is the main energy driver in most markets. Lets stick to Malaysia.

Malaysia's main source of income is derived directly and indirectly from 2 main products palm oil and oil/gas. Its effect on the economy in Malaysia is wider than anyone could anticipate and to discuss its falling prices to the economy is in tantamount to discuss the economy of malaysia.

Assuming everyone here is a brilliant minded average joe:

Lets look at KL the life and breath of Malaysia. Almost 70% of businesses there derive some sort of income directly or indirectly from the twin towers.

The oil and gas industry is also one of the main paymasters to many workers in and around Malaysia.

Loss of revenue and if people lose jobs = less taxes.

Once people lose jobs.....with current household debt at all time high.....will lead to the ever increasing defaults when people cant pay. And well brilliant minded average joes will know what that means.

Now tell me what other industry in Malaysia pays as much as the oil and gas industry? Only investment banking. And who do you think can afford all the houses at current prices?

Iskandar is a perfect example of oil and gas relation with the local economy. Due to pengerang, iskandar malaysia property prices shot up like crazy. And who is going to live in all this properties if demand for oil doesnt drive up employement?

Well investors and the drop of the ringgit has spoken against Malaysia's positiin in this debate.
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Don't know why so many people have the wrong idea that Malaysia is very dependent on oil/gas and palm oil.

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Artus
post Jan 18 2015, 02:35 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 17 2015, 07:08 PM)
i m not so sure if v r better off than in 1998... at that time, v may have less fx reserves but v dun hv almost a rm 1 trillion debt then.
while i do think crude n cpo will stabilize n firm in the next 24 months, what else do v hv besides this hope - some producers will cut production or the rest of the world will consume more oil? manage the nation by "hope"?

where is the self help? that is, cut back on expense n wastage, projects n plans to increase production/productivity? i hardly hear of investments in agri or factories these days. only more wastage (n nobody does nothing), "funds dunno gone where", more taxes, gst...

pardon me if i m in the minority who just don't see "how things can improve by doing nothing".
added, good read:
long article by sam chee kong on rm, usd, oil, debt, budget:
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Our debt to gdp levels were far higher in the past:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=m...ent-debt-to-gdp
Artus
post Jan 18 2015, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 18 2015, 09:35 AM)
i don't know what gomen debt/gdp can really tell us.
might be more useful to look at total int/ext, public/private, gomen/household debt levels...?
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Maybe you should look at Singapore's gov debt levels:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=s...ent-debt-to-gdp

 

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