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 Falling Oil Prices - Where it leaves Malaysia, Not too bad afterall

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Showtime747
post Jan 16 2015, 08:34 AM

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Its too late to react now. If you haven't done anything to spread your risk previously, all you can do is just sit back and watch. And possibly just hope for the best.

Investment is about risk management. Not putting all eggs into 1 basket. It is a long term planning. Get your portfolio balanced in both your home country and overseas assets. So that currency fluctuation will offset each other 90% of the time. Also get your portfolio to involve across the industries so that sectorial effect (like oil price slump now) will not have substantial effect overall.

My only weakness is the distrust in precious metal. Maybe it is good time to look into gold as everyone is avoiding it. I have a feeling that if Russia is kept victimised by the West, they can just "slip" a nuclear weapon to the terrorist and get it detonated in 1 of the oil producing country. Then all hell break lose and oil will be in $150 region and gold hit $3000. Just my conspiracy theory on a Friday... tongue.gif


Showtime747
post Jan 18 2015, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 17 2015, 07:08 PM)
ya, kinda a little late at this time. but... one is never too late to do anything! still possible to act to protect a bit, spread it out a bit, some in foreign denominations. conspiracies theories aside, one's better off looking for answers to questions like... where r v heading longer term?

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At 3.6-3.7 and oil at 40, how low further can it go ? I don't think its a good idea to shift now. In fact I am thinking of profit taking. But that is just my position though...If all my holdings are in malaysia and RM, I would just see it through as the downside is minimal. There are still some KLCI stock which is at attractive prices and yield now
Showtime747
post Jan 18 2015, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 18 2015, 09:35 AM)
this is the billion rm question, isn't it?!
i doubt anyone knows, not even bnm. but one can take a position, maybe as a hedge.
i m of the view the state of my's economy/rm is not all about oil.

a diff perspective.... when sgd=rm2.30, we thought it had gone far enough. then 2.50. now, almost 2.7.
how low can it go? 2.80, 3.0? or return to 2.50, 2.30? reasons?

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I would take any position that can make money. Short term there are opportunity. Long term also there are opportunity. Why would we give more weight to long term than short term ?

Like risk management, we should not only hold long term position in our investment. Nothing should be too rigid, or 1 rule rules all. I always believe in flexibility as investment is very fluid

It is just my view that the upside is more than the downside of the RM and oil price at this point in time. No oil producing countries will make much money below $40. That's why I predict the worst is already here. If a person has not already diversify their portfolio, it is not worthy to do it now
Showtime747
post Jan 24 2015, 06:51 AM

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QUOTE(adamdacutie @ Jan 23 2015, 10:28 PM)
totally agreed .

my 2 cents
Winners do not chuck during the low but to aim at undervalued and park the money looking for greater return in the future ...
Losers are usually kiasu ppl , drop - worry , drop drop - cannot sleep , drop drop drop - panic attack , drop drop drop drop - sell off and hoping the next day things get worse n feel lucky to have done the selling early  ... rebound - aiya y i sell it ! , up up - damn ! waiting that to go down first then i'll buy , up up up - damn I am buying it !!! up up up up - yeah !!!! DROP - FML !
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http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/201...illustrated.png

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Showtime747
post Feb 7 2015, 01:01 PM

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/06/u...N0LA1PF20150206

When the tiger is cornered, he will jump the wall

A small nuclear bomb in neutral oil producing country, in disguise of terrorist attack, is good solution to artificially cause oil price to sky rocket and save Russia economy.

Possible ?
Showtime747
post Feb 19 2015, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 19 2015, 09:46 AM)
i tend to agree with yr statements.

while oil is not the only factor, the perception and hence investor actions are such - low oil price, lower oil prcoeeds, lower gomen income, incr fiscal budget deficit, mgs rises, money outflows, rm depr.

but what i am thinking is whether the situation is currently much further aggravated by the weak positions of other things particularly falling cpo exports, the 1mdb blackholes and a general public pessimism of the effects of the coming gst. all that may drive the rm further down in the months ahead - even if oil price recover to usd60-65. and if oil price returns to 40-45, the rm might dive very quickly...?
a contrasting case is indonesia. it has long became net oil importer. at this time, it is clearly benefiting from low oil price; stock market at record high; current/expected indon inflation lower than msia; rupiah is relatively stronger than the rm.
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Rupiah was >3 one year ago. Now only ~2.8. Depreciated ~10% against RM

 

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