well, some opec people say usd30-35 coming:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102389281

just for the record, today: oil usd52, rm/usd = 3.564.


i observe in the markets in the last couple of months:

oil price down=> rm down, bursa down... and... us stocks down.... but usd up
oil price up=>rm up, bursa up... and us stocks up... usd down

well, i m sure the relationships are dynamic and not that simple but what is the correct directional indicator(s)?

what is interesting is the issue whether msia is net oil exporter or net oil importer? seen some arguments going nowhere...
if really net oil importer, bursa and rm should gain handsomely when oil price go down - like we see in thailand, philippines and indonesia, no?

multiple choice:

a. it's all perception, msia is actually net importer, most parties are wrong, bursa and rm shud be flying
b. oil imports-exports are about balanced, effects can swing either way
c. it's not all about oil, many other factors just as impt.
d. all of the above
e. none of the above.

so many questions, no answers...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 4 2015, 06:59 PM

I also wanna know if Malaysia is really Crude Oil Exporter or Net importer

Najib said Malaysia is Net importer of Oil, but Foreign Analyst said Malaysia is Exporter

Selling clean crude oil to other countries, importing low quality crude oil, process and sell.
But selling they won't say, import will boast it loud.
So you know I know. Salam Malaysia, rakyat diperbodohkan, pencapaian kroni diutamakan

So Malaysia is Net Importer or Exporter

Depends how we see it.
With a GTL plant in Bintulu, we are exporter.

This post has been edited by supersound: Feb 4 2015, 08:40 PM

supersound,

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=my

<<Malaysia is the world's second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas and the second-largest oil and natural gas producer in Southeast Asia, and is strategically located amid important routes for seaborne energy trade.>>

Actually, Malaysia produce more gas than crude oil. And, gas price in Asia is higher than the rest of the world. Gas price is related to crude oil price but not exactly. The worst is yet to come when USA start export gas. In that case, it will impact gas price directly..

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-...fire-up-in-2015

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/11/...N0TV2JZ20141211

Dreamer

the subject of the thread is oil, not petroleum. and i was refering to oil.

najib had said msia is net oil importer but net petroleum exporter if gas included.

dreamer is right, gas-oil prices not necessarily tightly correlated.

it is the possibility of lower gas prices that will might drive trade balance to a deficit, alto many think wun happen.



but the original question still remains - is msia a net oil (the black gold, not gas) importer or exporter?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 4 2015, 11:25 PM

Is break even if excluding LNG. They never disclose the LNG's volume sold. So you do the maths.
Crude oil = petroleum. LNG is hydrocarbon. Crude oil are composition of hydrocarbon.
Since you are talking about trade, now here's the catch :
Tapis, Bintulu, Labuan, Kidorong are some of the petroleum we are exporting out. In average, Tapis are at least 20% more expensive than Brent or WTI due to it is the sweetest in the world while others are at least 10% more expensive. Most of the petroleum dig out from Malaysian sea are sweet.
Petroleum from Middle East are at least 20% more cheaper than Brent or WTI but very high sulphur content, this is the rubbish we are buying and process it to products and sell to us. That's the reason why other countries already on Euro4 but we are still at Euro2.
So, we are exporting 90000t(example) and we import 95000t. By volume looks like we are "net" importer, but considering the money, we are exporter.

apologies... the word "petroleum" was used differently in his speech. he used rm figures, not tonnes. lng was not in his numbers.

here:

so, he is saying msia is net crude oil exporter, net petroleum importer, excluding lng.

ok, that makes sense but wait... still some are disagreeing...!
http://www.focusmalaysia.my/Markets/Has%20...rter%20of%20oil?


well, importer or exporter, oil or petroleum products or gas, we do know rm and bursa falls when oil prices goes down. we'll see it again tmrw since crude price has dropped 7% within the last 24 hrs.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 5 2015, 01:58 AM

Najib's word can be trusted?

i believe you guys are looking at the wrong thing. Government main source of income is Petronas, and Petronas operates all around the world. the point is government cant fill their coffers with dwindling profit gain from Petronas. Net oil importer or exporter, the goverment is still in big trouble.

This post has been edited by backspace66: Feb 5 2015, 08:28 AM

Should be import ~ export, can't be far from this, no point arguing. When oil goes down, Rakyat pay less for petrol, Petronas thus govt get less revenue.

Actually Najib should say money gain from Petronas are for political party and not for rakyat

Okay I give up.. don't care if Malaysia is Net Importer or Exporter.. that's one gomen problem

Main Concern is Lower oil price bad for M'sia Gomen, Lower RM etc. but good for rakyat bcoz lower retail fuel price..

bad thing about weaker RM is higher cost of doing Intl Trade

Looks like you get the point already

ya, never mind importer, exporter or pure waster!

for rakyat... bottomline, cheaper petrol is just about the only benefit. i just filled up since price went down. yes, nice to pay so much less for my tank.

i only wish tnb rates can go down like that too and why not? but... that is some other unique boland story unlikely to change, so little hope there.

other things... can expect double whammy with weak rm + looming gst - from coffee and beef to ipads and tires, it's going to get a lot costlier. older folks with small life savings in rm may find it esp difficult.



so, back to thread subject - are we better off with falling oil prices?

from usd110 to now 48. will we like it more if usd40 or 35?!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 5 2015, 02:16 PM

lower crude price than current levels come with even more damage esp with weaker RM, lower gomen revenue which could hurt more on the economy & directly to the rakyat

I also wish that TNB would reduce the rate.

also the manufacturer could reduce the price of some the products for the benefit of the rakyat. but I don't think it would happen in BolehLand. if yes, then pigs can fly

The question now is, when oil price high and government's income are higher, do we get benefits from it?

i was about to say...

oil price stagnant, oil price up, oil price down... rakyat gets f'ed overall as usual, nothing changes.

but don't we already know...??