QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 01:18 PM)
Not really. Those are in small negligible numbers. When comes to $, most people are very rationalProperty Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread
Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread
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Nov 28 2014, 01:47 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
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Nov 28 2014, 01:49 PM
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1,092 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 28 2014, 12:24 PM) Seem like your antenna reception is kind of distorted... Lol My antenna is on the ground. Investor buy like no tomorrow? Most investors i meet are very cautious. Developers are focusing on smaller units with thousand units in each phase? Which project is that? Give some tips lar... Many project line up to launch big time, just that you are not aware. Property now moved toward North Side rather than concentrated on South like last few years. I can see Developer still launch like no tomorrow & Investor buy like no tomorrow. Developers are focusing on 400-600K smaller unit mega project with thousands of unit in each phase. |
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Nov 28 2014, 01:50 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 01:27 PM) QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 01:38 PM) bearbear, 1 liner cannot convince the reader the market is going down. The UUU has presented so many facts and news on why the market is not going down. You got to work harder to convince the readers. Otherwise, the readers will all go out and buy buy buy Don't fight UXXO warlords lah.... |
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Nov 28 2014, 01:51 PM
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1,092 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 28 2014, 01:50 PM) bearbear, 1 liner cannot convince the reader the market is going down. The UUU has presented so many facts and news on why the market is not going down. You got to work harder to convince the readers. Otherwise, the readers will all go out and buy buy buy Bro, got SSS camp ar? Stable stable stable. Stagnant Stagnant StagnantDon't fight UXXO warlords lah.... |
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Nov 28 2014, 01:55 PM
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3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 01:11 PM) See jolokia or not.. changing the topic... and renegating many facts...startedxmany time .. troll many time.. mother in law.. gf.. father in law.. TS joking again I am here you looking for me ? What Up wanna end bubble talk... I told you many times mah. Property price depends on 3 main factor. 1.) External Factor - namely general economy & property market demand & supply. 2.) Internal Factor - Buyer & owner/developer whether they wanna sell & sell at what price, buyer preferred location, particular unit, building, deco, feng shui & etc. 3.) Personal Factor - This is one criteria ignore by many people (including BBW & Ice Cream Boy, in fact many DDD Campers) - Question like - How fast do you need a house ? How fast do people living with you need a house ? How fast the people surrounding you & surrounding the people living live with you need you to get a house, ? This is where GF, Wife, 2nd Milk Traditionally Chinese In law prefer their future son in law to at least able to provide a house for their daughter before married, moreover nowadays people give birth to less children & their daughter are like precious gem, how to let their daughter still renting low cost apartment after married, offcoz if you are marrying a ulu kampung girl earning RM 800/mth then they may be OK, but you are marrying a lawyer & her father consider quite well to do, how can no reasonable house ? Someone already mentioned 1 of the key factor China have high demand for house is because, China in law insist future son in law can afford a house & can afford to take care of them, this is mainly cause by 1 children policy & higher ratio of male population, so son in law is their only hope if they only have 1 daughter. Back to Malaysia especially Chinese family have similar concept & our Male Vs Female population too show more male then female, so the trend is moving toward the same direction. Ah Bear you ask you self, if not because of marrying next year, why you can't wait till 2017 which could be bottom price since you said 2015 is DDD year ? Why can't you just buy a 4 years project like Seasons Garden with zero entry & wait till end of 2018 ? Now you see this "personal factor" aka GF & PAMA in law play the biggest role in property price surge like no tomorrow, offcoz if you are single then this factor doesn't affect you. Got it.. This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 28 2014, 02:01 PM |
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Nov 28 2014, 01:59 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
bearbearwong
You should write something like what agentdiary wrote >2 years ago.....his argument is so beautiful and convincing. But he was wrong.... QUOTE(agentdiary @ Aug 31 2012, 06:28 PM) Please stop reading if you're in property price will not go down camp. Take own responsibility if you still persist to go on. Don't blame the author for making your day bad. Fact is the real estate market has slowed and the signs of further slowing is growing every single day. Forget about U.S and E.U, everyone is tired about the gloom and doom there. Better shape countries like Taiwan (don't argue, is a sovereign country and maintaining its own military), China, Korea and Australia face difficulty to maintain economic growth. For example, Australia coal, iron ore and copper export has slumped. For the past 6 months, Australia total home sale has dropped and recorded the widest drop in July 2012. Price in some second tie markets for high end sector (>AUD1m) has dropped significantly as much as -40% or more. China fresh grad unemployment rate reached double digit this year (check Al-Jazerra latest documentary on China graduate). ZhuShanJiao 珠三角, Guang Dong Province (the locomotive of manufacturing hub in southern China), area like Dong Guan registered NEGATIVE -11 GDP contraction due to large numbers factories closure. Though China official GDP is 7.1% but the reliability is quite questionable. China financial market is not reflective the entire picture because shadow banking plays a large part for the medium/small enterprises. Last year reports of massive shadow banks run begin to surface from WenZhou, ZheJiang Province which has alerted Wen to intervene. Australia, Korea & Taiwan export to China begin to contract in 2012 and China electricity production did not grow from 2Q, 2012. It tells us the situation there is not good at all. Those in Malaysia who believe the property price can be sustained and grow (maybe slower) despite the economy gloom and doom around the world is living in fantasy. Property price can only be sustained if you and me, brother/sister, your friends and enemies, good or bad neighbor, untie and uncle.... ALL, is able to continue paying the installment and rent on time to bank/landlord regardless of how bad the economy will become. The market really don't need many people failing to do their commitment for destruction the working of the financial chain. Fictitious case. Just for illustration. A 3 years old condo with 400 dwellings. All in one size 1000sf, bought all in one price RM350k (now market price is RM500k) and 80% of them bough with 90% bank loan. When recession hit, 2% of them losing job and 3% of them have pay cut. So, 5% of them have problem to repay installment. 1% of them have saving while 1% of them, family can help out. Then left the 3% under water and foreclosure is inevitable. 3% is equal to 12 units of houses, is now on lelong. Let's say the lelong price is RM500k and under such economic downturn and large number of lelong is available, finding taker posses its difficulty. So, auction price has to be reduced, say, -10 to RM450k. If a different owner, financially better shape, want to sell his property now in an open market, he is not likely to find buyer at RM500k. Like it or not, RM450k is the realistic price (if there is taker of the auction price at RM450k. If not, further reduction is expected). When only half of the auction houses are able to sell, the remaining 6 will be further reduced. What if after further reduction, still no taker? Well, banker has to shoulder the liability without cash flow. When the vicious circle spread, it will force the market to raise interests rate as bankers now is facing reduction of cash flow. When interests rate adjusted upward, we can imagine the the ugly picture followed To believe the property price can be sustained or rise is equal to believe all the parties in the chain can do their part without failing. All of us know very well, it's not possible. When the export drop which is happening now, the affected companies is going to bite the bullet and under such circumstances, the problem of laying off surplus labors and suppliers is inevitable in order to survive. Chain effect: our neighbor working in those companies and friend who is supplying the material to the companies and our government who collects tax from those companies. People spend less and ..... It is a tough time ahead, friends. Obama is trying hard to reelect in Nov 2012 and he, as well as Mitt Romney will try their best to win voters than curing the economy (U.S has just reached 16 trillion deficit 2 days ago but who is talking it now? Still remember all the huhu-haha in Aug 2011 when deficit hit 15 trillion mark?). Angela Merkel will face the same as Germany election going to take place by latest of next year. China, just settled the recent largest political scandal involving the influential Bo Xilai, make no difference. China main focus now is the 18th National Congress of Commuinist China soon to be held. Who will take charge after Hu/Wen will be decided. Thus, it can be speculated that those politicians are buying time time for the moment. |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:02 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:05 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 28 2014, 01:55 PM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Traditionally Chinese In law prefer their future son in law to at least able to provide a house for their daughter before married, moreover nowadays people give birth to less children & their daughter are like precious gem, how to let their daughter still renting low cost apartment after married, offcoz if you are marrying a ulu kampung girl earning RM 800/mth then they may be OK, but you are marrying a lawyer & her father consider quite well to do, how can no reasonable house ? » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Time has changed... |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:17 PM
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All Stars
21,457 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 28 2014, 01:47 PM) If people are rational, there wouldn't be bull run and subsequent collapse like tulip mania, 97 asian financial crisis, 2008 subprime and kv property.QUOTE(Mikken @ Nov 28 2014, 01:49 PM) My antenna is on the ground. Investor buy like no tomorrow? Most investors i meet are very cautious. Developers are focusing on smaller units with thousand units in each phase? Which project is that? Give some tips lar... After subprime crisis in the u.s, there is a popular joke on re agent;How should one reacts if meet a snake and a re agent with 2 bullets? Put both bullets on the re agent. |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:31 PM
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1,092 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 02:17 PM) If people are rational, there wouldn't be bull run and subsequent collapse like tulip mania, 97 asian financial crisis, 2008 subprime and kv property. Double postAfter subprime crisis in the u.s, there is a popular joke on re agent; How should one reacts if meet a snake and a re agent with 2 bullets? Put both bullets on the re agent. This post has been edited by Mikken: Nov 28 2014, 02:32 PM |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:32 PM
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1,092 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 02:17 PM) If people are rational, there wouldn't be bull run and subsequent collapse like tulip mania, 97 asian financial crisis, 2008 subprime and kv property. Did you kill any recently?After subprime crisis in the u.s, there is a popular joke on re agent; How should one reacts if meet a snake and a re agent with 2 bullets? Put both bullets on the re agent. |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:40 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 02:17 PM) If people are rational, there wouldn't be bull run and subsequent collapse like tulip mania, 97 asian financial crisis, 2008 subprime and kv property. You are confusing "irrational" and "economic crisis"If everything can be predicted, there is no poor people in this world. What you are doing is "predict" and "timing" the market based on your narrow understanding. You have been wrong previously. What makes you think your same action will be right in the future ? Remember Albert Einstein's saying ? "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". You are doing what Einstein was describing an insane person does |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:44 PM
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9,533 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(Mikken @ Nov 28 2014, 02:32 PM) The market is so bad.. that even new launch with 1k 5k 1p entry oso cant move... even those readily finished vp also cant move..oug parklane also cant m9ve.. it is every section of price also not moving.. BBB is running out of buyers.. the one BBB are able to buy choose to invest.. this is also a new ting need to be accepted.. many investors are waiting for cash out.. here only talk loud.. no need modal one... want save face still on BBB.. New launch is on buying spree.. of course they only projectsche quote you.. other non sellable are not included.. of course win.. no comparison one.. |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:49 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
bearbearwong
Another 1 very good DDD writer who wrote in 2011. You should be writing like him to convince the readers.... QUOTE(debtismoney @ Aug 7 2011, 09:49 PM) Were there any property development recently been sold out on launch day? I reckon this is maniac behaviour, when everyone rushes to one asset class and afraid of being left out, isn't a sign of bubble top? I presume many property investors are on teaser/low introductory interest loans. They are hoping to flip the properties within the low interest period and make a handsome profits. When everyone thinks the same, do you still think you could find the next greater fool to get a mortgage he/she can't afford to buy your overpriced properties? I have a feeling the pool of greater fool is running out very soon. Any thoughts? The US had just been downgraded to AA+ by S&P few days ago, who is going to buy their treasury bond? I think their central bank the FED will step in and announce another round of money printing QE3 very soon, and the European Central Bank is going to print money and buy the Italian/Spanish bonds as well in order to avoid debt default. It will be an inflationary depression. Petrol, corn, grain, cotton, everything will go up in price... and you think property could cope inflation? Yes, but not overpriced properties for sole investment purposes only. When people are struggling to get food on the table or fill their gas tank, do you think they will be interested in flipping houses, upgrade to a bigger mcmansion. Eventually interest rate will have to go up to cope runaway inflation. I suppose your parents in 70s/80s would have experienced mortgage rate more than 10%. Ring your bell? Because we had runaway inflation in late 70s/early 80s due to high money supply expansion for the Vietnam War. When the mortgage rate goes up or teaser loan reset kicks in, how many flippers could service their mortgage debt when rate is at >10%? I really hope our Boleh Land will not experience property wreckage similar to US, Ireland, Spain, Dubai, Japan... Folks, the storm is coming, the world reserve US dollar gonna collapse, high inflation will hit our shore very soon. At the end of the day, median house price will have to match average household income in long run, without the matching income who is going to service the mortgage debt? When running out of greater fool to get a bigger mortgage to buy the property, the music stops, the property bubble will burst... because the flippers haven't got enough income in the economy to service the mortgage debt. Falling total housing loan size is a prelude of falling housing market. Did the size of total housing loan grow in the last few months? |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:49 PM
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9,533 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 28 2014, 02:40 PM) You are confusing "irrational" and "economic crisis" U are saying speculated price is good.. and if you dun buy now and help me (showtime747) cash out and onlyme can upgrade.. price will increase further .. If everything can be predicted, there is no poor people in this world. What you are doing is "predict" and "timing" the market based on your narrow understanding. You have been wrong previously. What makes you think your same action will be right in the future ? Remember Albert Einstein's saying ? "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". You are doing what Einstein was describing an insane person does Who is increasing? The same joker who warn buyers of going up.. standard fear mentality ignored and low transaction was recorded and getting from bad to worse... let them hold.. slash their rentals..if renting.. |
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Nov 28 2014, 02:51 PM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 02:44 PM) The market is so bad.. that even new launch with 1k 5k 1p entry oso cant move... even those readily finished vp also cant move.. bearbear, see my above post. Your DDD comrade is basically saying the same thing you just said in 2011. You are essentially just repeating the same thing in 2014 oug parklane also cant m9ve.. it is every section of price also not moving.. BBB is running out of buyers.. the one BBB are able to buy choose to invest.. this is also a new ting need to be accepted.. many investors are waiting for cash out.. here only talk loud.. no need modal one... want save face still on BBB.. New launch is on buying spree.. of course they only projectsche quote you.. other non sellable are not included.. of course win.. no comparison one.. 3 years later in 2017, I will be quoting your above statement to some other DDD who will be saying the same thing again.... |
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Nov 28 2014, 03:01 PM
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Senior Member
4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 02:49 PM) U are saying speculated price is good.. and if you dun buy now and help me (showtime747) cash out and onlyme can upgrade.. price will increase further .. No, speculated price is no good. To you, the current price is "speculated" price. To the market, the current price is "market" price. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « I have said so many times, I buy property for rental. Not to sell and make capital gain. You and your conspiracy theory again.... This post has been edited by Showtime747: Nov 28 2014, 03:02 PM |
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Nov 28 2014, 03:05 PM
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All Stars
21,457 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
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Nov 28 2014, 03:07 PM
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1,801 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 28 2014, 02:51 PM) bearbear, see my above post. Your DDD comrade is basically saying the same thing you just said in 2011. You are essentially just repeating the same thing in 2014 siao ah...... bbw only hav knowledge recorded in my signature la..... u ask him to write those essay???...... 3 years later in 2017, I will be quoting your above statement to some other DDD who will be saying the same thing again.... Attached image(s) |
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Nov 28 2014, 03:10 PM
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All Stars
21,457 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 28 2014, 02:40 PM) You are confusing "irrational" and "economic crisis" Prefer to believe in and follow prof robert shiller and prof andrew oswald than some uuu with vested interest.If everything can be predicted, there is no poor people in this world. What you are doing is "predict" and "timing" the market based on your narrow understanding. You have been wrong previously. What makes you think your same action will be right in the future ? Remember Albert Einstein's saying ? "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". You are doing what Einstein was describing an insane person does |
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