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 Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread

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SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2014, 06:00 PM, updated 12y ago

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Continue from V13

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3392892

http://www.theguardian.com/business/econom...ty-stocks-bonds

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/articl...ubble-it-bursts

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 18 2014, 12:12 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2014, 06:01 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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Forum member post with sense :clap"

By Showtime747

@bearbearwong is a very interesting forum member in LYN. His behaviour brought us lots of fun and at the same time, he showed us many things which we should avoid. There are many mistakes he made, and below are 6 mistakes made by bearbear which I think home buyers and investors alike can "learn" from him and avoid them in their future purchases :

Mistake #1 Confused objective
bearbear's intention to buy a property is for own stay. For own stay, the objective is totally different from investment. For own stay, it is 1 of the 4 daily needs (clothing, food, dwelling and transport). Just like clothing, food and transport, we buy a house when we need it (like marriage). We should not delay because it is our need. We can always choose a budget that suits us. But bearbear wanted designer cloth and BMW instead of something more affordable. He wanted those mid-high end housing >RM600k instead of those RM300k+ which is his actual affordable budget.

Moreover, for own stay, the future rise and fall of market price does not affect him. He still have to own the house if the market price increase by 100%. He can't sell it for profit otherwise he has no roof over his head. Likewise, if the market falls by 50%, he will not sell either. A house for own stay is a need, not an investment which could turn into profit or loss due to price movement


Mistake #2 Buying a property is a 1 time decision
bearbear thought that buying a house is a 1 time decision (like marriage). But in fact, almost everyone have the opportunity to upgrade their house in the future. Therefore, we should buy a property based on our own financial ability at that time. We should not think that we will be stuck with a property for whole life. We can always sell it and upgrade to a better property in the future. Thinking buying a property and will stay in it for the rest of you life will make your purchase decision very difficult


Mistake #3 Timing the market
Nobody knows the timing of market ups and downs. It applies to any market including stock and property. So, it is foolish to time the market for best price. Instead, the best time to buy a property is when you are financially ready and comfortable. Timing the market is like gambling. If you time the market wrongly, the loss is substantial. Just like the DDDs for the last 5-6 years, they have missed the great opportunity of riding the super bull run which has never been seen in malaysia property market history

Over long term, in malaysia property market history, market price will increase between 5%-10% pa on long term average. So, in 20 years time and beyond, the property will appreciate at least 3 times. Of course, there are ups and downs during the 20 years period, but if a person holds a long term view, the price is on an upward linear trend as history has shown us


Mistake #4 want to wear too big a hat
bearbear's salary is only RM4k gross. His saving is only RM40k. But he aspire to buy property in the region of RM600k-RM700k. He has over-stretched his budget. The result would be catastrophic. A property buyer should not over-stretch their financial ability, unless he has backup from PAMA or spouse. With RM4k salary, bearbear should only be looking at property in the region of RM300k-RM400k. However, he even take into account his 3 credit card limit of RM50k in choosing his target property. Using credit card as part of the deposit is plainly a foolish decision

Be truthful to yourself. Weigh your financial ability objectively. Face and social status will be down the drain when repo man knocks on your door.


Mistake #5 getting influenced by his working life
bearbear has a "hazardous" job. His repomen job forces him to meet people who failed financially everyday. When he sees people bankrupt day in day out, he is influenced by them and giving him an impression that many people are facing financial trouble. This could have lead him to believe that most people are not prudent in their financial management and hence, most property buyers are vulnerable to fail. His mindset has become negative and pessimistic. Causing him to read any news and deduce his own findings negatively.

His world becomes doom and gloom and market will crash soon. He cannot see the market objectively anymore. As such, his market outlook causes him to think crash is coming and he should delay his purchase decision.

Property purchase is 1 of our biggest decision. We should be more objective when making such decision. Try to get advice from as many people as possible instead of being influenced by people around you.


Mistake #6 wish the environment to come down to meet his wants instead of working towards achieving his wish
He already has a job. He can work hard to improve his income. If he works towards improving his income by double to RM8k, buying the property of his choice is no more an issue. However, instead of working hard to achieve higher income, he blame the market instead. He whine about the UUU, the flippers, the government etc for causing the price to inflate exponentially until his current salary could not afford.

Instead of working hard, he spend a big proportion of his productive time from 7am - 12 midnight in the forum argue with the UUU and other property buyers. He did not realise he is spending his time unproductively and will not help in his career. He should have use his productive time to work towards how to achieve better career path instead.

We should always bear in mind in this cruel world, nothing will come to you unless you make an effort to achieve it. Ie. there is no free lunch and complaining wouldn't help you get what you wish



I am sure there are more bearbear's mistakes which we can learn. Feel free to add on



This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 30 2014, 07:54 AM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2014, 06:01 PM

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More Sensible post by member

By Latuk ManutdGiggs (Property Talk Typhoon of 2014 winner)

Bro bear, just to share with u. Since lately ur comrade has been playing with ice cream, let's TOK bout ice cream.

I blif u hav no idea how much profit an ice cream franchise holder is making. Or how high the margin for an ice cream trader.

Tis real life story is bout my Fren hor. Not me har. He is a franchisee, not even a franchiser for a well known ice cream brand. Operating onli one huge kiosk. At the same time he has 2 local cuisine restaurant. All together he has bout 35 staffs. No proper management cos he is running it as it is. 3 outlets onli. He jaga 2 his adik jaga 1.

Nett profit for last financial yr is 2.5m n tis yr approaching 3m b4 closing.

Biz is tough??? Yes. He oso kao beh kao bu saying susah ni susah tu but moolah stil keep flowing in. He is in the rite ind with the rite product. So even during market down, all here stil need to eat. And u need to eat the food tat v can regularly get in town. Fortunately he is in tis category. So dai kui fatt tat hor.

I'm surprise to c some here stil not able to accept tat there r a grp of ppl able to overcome the rough surface ahead. I can't deny majority might b facing trouble in loan but it doesn't prove ddd rite as bro bear did claim tat lotsa hidden income fr lawyers bankers runners or whoeva. Until they show all tis extra incomes kept in dark due to greed n evil intention, banks would not b so silly to just approve the loan to any td&h lo.

I oso seen a guy earning big pocketing oversea income getting loan approved here in malai by showing those docs to banks. Banks Luv them cos they know they r rich in reality but not in malai. And it's pretty sad to c many here working too hard but not justified in term of their income by banks here.

Another FREN came to me last nite who works closely with gov arms providing consultations. He charge 500.00 for an hr Tok. All expenses covered by gov agencies to make sure he reach the destination and back home, with nice accommodation and transportation, but no char boh la. As long as he can keep toking, he has the moolah in his pockets. He is oso act as a sourcing agent to gov agency. Income earned in between is not mandatory to file in irb cos its thru commission basis with recorded in suppliers acc.

Anw, just for sharing. Not saying u r wrong. It's just so unfortunate so happen u r in the wrong ind. maybe u would like to think of the next move in order to make u a beta person at least mentally. U r currently having no trust to prop market yet die die must Hav one super cheap but super gd deal. I can onli say it onli happen in dream tat I'm living in sentosa cove with sgd100k.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 30 2014, 06:51 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2014, 06:02 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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Reserved

Closed till V13 reaches limit.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 16 2014, 06:06 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 17 2014, 12:55 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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Reserved


SUSjolokia
post Nov 17 2014, 11:06 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 17 2014, 10:53 PM)
lol... reserved for what items?
*
For good & sensible comments.

As an appreciation & motivating factor for member contribution.

1 of of it is to paste your CV provided you allowed me to do so & don't go lippot.. biggrin.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 08:45 AM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Nov 18 2014, 08:18 AM)
101
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You don't waste thread count by posting these meaningless posting ah, Gua kasi red sama lu. mad.gif

[attachmentid=4221376]

Bold Bold Bear (BBB)

Future House tongue.gif

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This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 18 2014, 08:46 AM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 09:01 AM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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http://www.utusan.com.my/berita/nasional/p...ntungan-1.26104

Tuan Beruang Berseri Sila Baca & Harap Maklum (Tiada usaha "Bulldozer" dibuat untuk menurunkan harge rumah) thumbup.gif

PUTRAJAYA 17 Nov. - pemaju perumahan diingatkan supaya tidak terlalu mengejar keuntungan berlebihan dengan mengambil kesempatan menaikkan harga rumah sehingga melambung tinggi. Menteri Kesejahteraan Bandar, Perumahan dan Kerajaan Tempatan, Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan berkata, sekiranya pemaju perumahan secara berterusan menaikkan harga rumah secara tidak munasabah, keadaan itu akan menyebabkan berlaku fenomena 'housing bubble' pada masa hadapan. Katanya, feno­mena itu berlaku apabila pasaran ti­dak mampu lagi menerima kenaikan secara melampau sehingga harga rumah jatuh mendadak. “Jika berlaku, harga rumah yang sa­ngat tinggi akan turun secara mendadak sehingga sukar untuk naik semula dan ketika itu bukan sahaja pemaju perumahan rugi, malah kerajaan serta rakyat turut terjejas. “Kita bukan minta supaya harga rumah diturunkan terus tetapi dinaikkan secara mampan dan dapat diterima oleh semua pihak,” ka­tanya dalam si­dang akhbar di pejabatnya di sini hari ini. Selain itu, me­nurut Abdul Rahman, faktor penjualan harga tanah yang tinggi, harga bekalan bahan binaan yang mahal dan kos pemasangan utiliti oleh syarikat air, elektrik dan komunikasi juga penyumbang kepada kenaikan harga rumah. Beliau berkata, faktor sampingan itu menyebabkan harga tersebut diserap ke dalam harga rumah dan perlu ditanggung oleh pembeli. “Di luar negara apabila sesebuah projek perumahan baharu dibina, syarikat telekomunikasi, air dan sebagainya akan berlumba-lumba memasang fiber optik serta paip air kerana berpendapat mereka ini pelanggan di masa hadapan yang perlu dijaga tetapi di negara ini. “Situasinya berlainan kerana kita yang perlu membayar untuk sambungan terbabit sehingga ada seunit rumah dicaj sebanyak RM3,000 hingga RM4,000 untuk pemasangan,” katanya. Dalam pada itu, mengulas kenya­taannya baru-baru ini bahawa kerajaan tiada kuasa untuk mengawal harga rumah yang ditentukan pasaran, jelasnya, kerajaan hanya mengawal rumah kos rendah dan sederhana rendah manakala rumah kos sederhana tinggi serta tinggi ditentukan oleh pasaran. Beliau berkata, langkah membiarkan pasaran menentukan harga tersebut adalah bagi memastikan perkembangan ekonomi negara te­rus rancak serta industri perumahan tidak terjejas. Keputusan ini dibuat kerana industri perumahan turut membabitkan sektor pekerjaan, antaranya penyedia bahan binaan, arkitek, kejuruteraan dan lain-lain yang kerajaan juga perlu melihat golongan tersebut. “Namun begitu, bagi tujuan mengawal harga rumah, kerajaan juga melakukan beberapa instrumen lain seperti mengenakan cukai keuntungan harta tanah yang tinggi dan mengehadkan pinjaman pembelian untuk rumah kedua, ketiga dan seterusnya,” katanya.


This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 18 2014, 09:11 AM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 09:17 AM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(party @ Nov 18 2014, 09:04 AM)
LOL..they also know monopoly is bad
*
Hope Ah Bear will "Die Heart" Sei Sam & proceed with his life & don't waste his life waiting for thing that never ever going to come by.

Interest increased - Failed 3 round

Budget will introduce more curb measure - Failed

GST will reduce price - Failed

Govt will Bulldozer house price - Failed



Bold Bold Bear become Failed Failed Bear liao. doh.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 12:25 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 18 2014, 11:21 AM)
Oh so this is the main reason for ppl to stop bubble talking.. TS again derailed from topic..  the small size house will never and can never work.. remember this is malai... majority is malai..you cant do that..

land cost in malaysia only cost 10 to 20% ... and we arenot land scarce either..

Transaction down is failed?
*
They stop talking coz bubble no longer exist after many years of waiting.

Now they accept the reality, knowing no one gonna help them if they don't help themself. smile.gif

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 18 2014, 11:27 AM)
No wonder BBB wanna start bubble threads.. to bring and end to bubble talk in LYN.. more ppl are starting to aware..

say not going to hapoen.. believe wont happen.. no reason to happen.. but spend time in bubble and reserve slots for trolling.. making threads as rubbish will be good start.. you want to MODS?

Whatever spouted.. all other countries has better features and safeguards.. but then it happen bubble.. drop price .. correction.. inclusive of the small units in singapore and hong kong of which are land scare..

getting desperate to prevent ppl from talking bout bubble.. jololkia loan repayment starting soon next month..with current bad transaction..it will go worse..
*
We love you very much, you are our most entertaining Teddy Bear, please come in comment more often, our life will be bored withiout your daily dosage of humorous comments.

My repayment no yet started lah, what did i buy ?? hmm.gif

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 18 2014, 11:36 AM)
Will you even considers to buy inflated properties.. laohuu is heavy debt taker
*
We don't treat the proprty we buy as inflated, we treat it as best defence againt inflation, better than FIM 92 Stinger to bring down your Chengdu J20.. thumbup.gif

I only know Tigerr sibeh rich, now goyang LP drinking Sake in Ginza.. tongue.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 12:27 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(zenjet @ Nov 18 2014, 11:58 AM)
jolokia ~ boss! why keep changing the title? difficult to search ler ~

mau avoid mod?
*
Gift some fresh look mah.. avoiding Cherroy keep sending his unwated thread flooding here. laugh.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 01:54 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2014, 01:12 PM)
Not that, there won't be any more land left for development. Knowing full well current property price is unsustainable and will fall back to earth. Those who bought in the last 2 to 3 years for own stay is likely to become a mortgage prisoner. if one can wait, why need to throw good money after bad?
*
So when will it crash ? How long 3 years, 10 years 30 years ? you can ask people wait forever ! correct ? you want people to camp under the bridge while waitting for the undated crash prediction, assume you are right 10 years from now a propery cost 200K become 800K then crash 50% become 400K, that fool who listen to you still pay double the price & wasted 10 years sleeping under the bridge.

Market will not crashed unless another 97 Asian Financial Crisis hit, even if it hit you don't have the guts to buy as by then you either get 50% pay cut or retrenched.

How Ice Cream business ? good ? If it good that mean property market wouldn't crash.. whistling.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 01:55 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(zenjet @ Nov 18 2014, 01:31 PM)
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3386394

Bukit Suria ~  whistling.gif

Untuk bearbear ~ smile.gif
*
He don't have 90K cash to hantam tongue.gif

That's how we now he doesn't have 100K in bank as he claimed.. cool2.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 18 2014, 02:04 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 02:01 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Nov 18 2014, 01:17 PM)
Bear bear u can consider savanna Bangi, 360k only
*
Bangi cannot, he claimed Malai area no potential, he is mono racial concept fellow, though i donno why he like to lived in chinese area as he don't understand chinese & don't like chinese ed people & utar grads like us ?? hmm.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 02:03 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(party @ Nov 18 2014, 01:56 PM)
He will point out Germany where ppl rent to live. No need buy house one.  whistling.gif

"Renting to live is also an option. Why need to be mortgage prisoner to let bank thrive while we have the option to be free."
*
If such scenario exixt here i will hantam 10 properties, guaranteed long term income, good retirement paln thumbup.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 02:47 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(MeToo @ Nov 18 2014, 02:34 PM)
Who is to say he is wrong. Maybe the market DOES crash tomorrow. In 1996/97 everyone believe the Msia market will shoot up forever also ma. If so easy predict ppl dun need 14th floor alrdy.

He is entitled to his believe, whether he will end up with a bungalow at rock bottom price, or a low cost flat at kuala selangor is his luck lor. Why we so butt hurt?
*
Bear is similar to our Dr Jayraptor also mah, very adorable person tongue.gif

Must promote caring society, if everything also you said don't care let them die, why butt hurt, then no need help Elder, OKU, Orphanages, Animal loh.

Heartless fellow lah U, No Compassion. shakehead.gif Suggest you watch the movie "Pay It Forward". thumbup.gif

We have no selfish motive apart from sharing what we experienced, Ok maybe the poking fun at Bear2 & Ice Cream Boy is kind of fun.. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 18 2014, 02:49 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 06:30 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Nov 18 2014, 05:49 PM)
No it won't ... it'll keep going down .... biggrin.gif
Checking in btw... rclxms.gif
*
Can you release HajiCloud after you having you fun with him ?

We need some "Want to cancel the bet or not jek ? Bear go Yaksi" comment laugh.gif


SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(cfa28 @ Nov 18 2014, 05:57 PM)
Nope, fall of 5% - easily kena sapu by secondary bargain hunters

To trigger a downfall, you need a slowdown in overall economy

Even if 10% to 15% of flippers sell below cost on VP, still no effect cos will kena sapu
*
Maybe Baskin Robbins give 5% discount will trigger Ice Cream market downfall, then we can buy the 31 flavour at Ais Potong price.. laugh.gif

Ice Cream Boy really speak from imaginative world. shakehead.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 09:05 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 18 2014, 07:26 PM)
wah 330k, flip 550k? why taret mass market? Jolokia say property are not for mass market, for rich ppl
*
550K mass market meh ? 4K salary LLB holder can afford or not ? so does this mean you are below mass ? Very cham..don't forget apply for BR1M hope it help..

QUOTE(**** @ Nov 18 2014, 07:30 PM)
You are contradicting yourself, 1st you said land is getting lesser ( no more land ), then you say property price will fall. Stardard 6 logic .
*
Land is getting lesser coz his PAMA got land wanna sell (or he wanna sell), house price drop coz he wanna buy, for him everything untung himself only, offcoz that's just his day dreams.


QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Nov 18 2014, 08:05 PM)
yawn.gif tambah post count for thread
*
Another red card Sama lu, 3rd one u be ban from kopi susu for 1 week like DatUK LCW.

QUOTE(kradun @ Nov 18 2014, 08:21 PM)
I dont noe like this will chi gek bear2 or not, actually total got 3..
*
U r such evil fellow, first u pretend poor staying in Studio unit, let Bear2 fall into the trap peli u Kao2 then u take out your 2 aces let him chikek Gao2 hopefully he not sot kao zhuo & disappear like HajiCloud.

QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Nov 18 2014, 08:23 PM)
Hahaha ... I'm not having him captive la ...
He sendiri cabut lari liao ...  laugh.gif

I see you cannot tahan bbw comments until you join uuu grp liao ...  rclxms.gif
*
No lah I never joined UUU, I just join in Bear Bear Bashing Club BBB..

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 18 2014, 09:06 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 09:21 PM

So Hot It Burns..!!!
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 18 2014, 09:17 PM)
wow, all of a sudden got 3 house, and u expect ppl to believe you.. I mean since you said you had 3 house, and prefer 1/3 salary as affordability, and worse scenario you will pay 3 all by your own

well, since all you are capable to rent, CCRIS report could have easily shown all the 3 properties under loan right? U know my next question of proving the same..you are the one being inconsistent remember?

will constantly gentle remind you of the same ... congratulation 3 properties, 1/3 salary.. rclxms.gif
*
100K Bank statement mana ? whistling.gif



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