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 Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread

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icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 01:11 AM

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QUOTE(SaProp @ Nov 17 2014, 11:48 PM)
Bro, market this year slow because lot of investor aka speculator not buying, furthermore with govt intervention, it wouldn't be good for some time, not good to stretch to max, no body can predict accurate what is the future...always keep some when opp come, this is call opp cost.
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Most flippers are hoping to offload their property to own stay buyer or another flipper for a profit. Most flippers unless have offloaded their unit are at their borrowing limit else they would have bought more.

Most first time house buyers have limited saving, are likely to buy a cheaper and older unit or low entry cost new unit from developers. Those upgrade buyers are likely to buy from developer unless insist on that particular building.

Except students, foreigners and those with bad ccris/ctos record, tenants that could rent condo are qualified for loan and will buy low entry cost new unit from developers.

kv property overhang will be very long and residential rental yield is expected to stay below 3%.


icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2014, 09:17 AM)
Hope Ah Bear will "Die Heart" Sei Sam & proceed with his life & don't waste his life waiting for thing that never ever going to come by.

Interest increased - Failed 3 round

Budget will introduce more curb measure - Failed

GST will reduce price - Failed

Govt will Bulldozer house price - Failed
Bold Bold Bear become Failed Failed Bear liao.  doh.gif
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Politicians and policy makers tend to curb price inflation/bubble too little and too late. drastic property price drop in kv is almost a certainty and a matter of time.

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(**** @ Nov 18 2014, 01:01 PM)
The problem with your mentality is like those gambling in the casino. Gamblers in bacarrat always believe that they could wait for "the dragon" to appear.

The question is when ? God knows. Bear bear is dying for it . Chasing for one bubble would have costed you how much of opportunity cost ?

U and the likes of bear bear is no better than the flippers . Equally guilty to keep the property price high. Compared to flippers. U do not have to guts and money to buy. Yet everydat cursing the market like hell. Cultivating false hope on the young ones.

The correct mentality is buy within your means and stop dreaming about those landed,luxurious, close to lrt, strategic location kind of property .
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Not that, there won't be any more land left for development. Knowing full well current property price is unsustainable and will fall back to earth. Those who bought in the last 2 to 3 years for own stay is likely to become a mortgage prisoner. if one can wait, why need to throw good money after bad?

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2014, 01:54 PM)
So when will it crash ? How long 3 years, 10 years 30 years ? you can ask people wait forever ! correct ? you want people to camp under the bridge while waitting for the undated crash prediction, assume you are right 10 years from now a propery cost 200K become 800K then crash 50% become 400K, that fool who listen to you still pay double the price & wasted 10 years sleeping under the bridge.

Market will not crashed unless another 97 Asian Financial Crisis hit, even if it hit you don't have the guts to buy as by then you either get 50% pay cut or retrenched.

How Ice Cream business ? good ? If it good that mean property market wouldn't crash.. whistling.gif
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Current kv property price doesn't need financial crisis or market crash to tip over, interest rate rise will be sufficient to send property price on the long slide to the bottom.

current property price will not jump 4 fold in 10 years unless you see sgd 1= myr 12. as property is not the only investment opportunity available, for certain is more liquid and less risky than kv property.

food business always do better during recession and financial crisis.

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 18 2014, 02:22 PM)
Mortgage prisoner ? Why u look yourself so down. Why not find another way to increase your income rather than wait for price to fall back? What is your back up plan if price did not fall back?
If price take years to bottom then this few years what is the best way to increase your capital?
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Unless kv property price could defy gravity, there isn't a need for back up plan.

kv property is not the only investment opportunity available, the world is your oyster.

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 18 2014, 02:27 PM)
Tell me what u investing now then
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How could a student advise a property tycoon on investment.


icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 18 2014, 02:34 PM)
nope I eager learn from u. No property tycoon , just kecil miao here
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Student is not qualified to teach, can just quote from books.

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Nov 18 2014, 02:42 PM)
http://www.propwall.my/klcc/the_troika

It seems the price has been flat since vp in 2009.

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 18 2014, 02:50 PM)
If you look back at the past 5-6 years of this thread, UUU has been right and DDD has been wrong. Undeniable fact.

The only thing left for DDD is "hope". Some UUU term it "false hope"
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During bull run, every punters think they are gold finger, could turn stone into gold. However, few survive the subsequent crash.

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 18 2014, 03:03 PM)
When you join 2 years ago, you said the same thing. I think years later you will still be repeating the same thing over and over  tongue.gif

When you look back 10 years from now, this belief of yours is the single most important factor why you failed to own a property
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The longer and higher the bull run, the longer and deeper it will fall.

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 18 2014, 03:03 PM)
Dont jealous la. You already missed the boat.
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Shouldn't people be glad and blessed to have missed the overloaded boat that couldn't survive stormy weather.

QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 18 2014, 03:05 PM)
Rubbish.
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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 18 2014, 03:06 PM)
Stupid assumption.
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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 18 2014, 03:09 PM)
The bull will left the shit for you.
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We will wait and see who will have the last laugh.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 18 2014, 03:14 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 18 2014, 03:20 PM)
DDD has been saying this sentence since 5-6 years ago  tongue.gif 

And you will continue to say this sentence until you are tired and leave this thread like so many other DDD who disappeared
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This bull run only started in around 2011, how could it be 5-6 years ago?

icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(Gravity @ Nov 18 2014, 03:32 PM)
property prices confirm won't crash. Perhaps it will adjust a bit.. (maybe fall for 5% to 10%) depending on areas.

Based on the following reasonings:-

1) Land is scare
2) Cost of construction is increasing.
3) KL houses are relatively cheaper than other capital in SEA. Even Jakarta properties are most expensive than us.
4) General malaysia economy is still ok. The rich is still rich so they will still drive the demand high.

If our economy is not doing well, say our coutry defaulting in some debts, then perhaps our property price will drop.
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Many flippers were hoping to offload upon vp, a fall of 5% will be enough to trigger the long down fall.

Construction cost i.e. building materials and loabour is only rm150 psf, a small portion of house price.

how does property price in other country related to kl? if taking jakarta as example, then muadzam shah is undervalued.

most if not all rich already have their houses, why do they need to buy from flippers?

QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Nov 18 2014, 03:53 PM)
Wait....there's a different compare 2 years ago, he was working adult b4 but suddenly turned to student this year, don't know why suddenly hiding under student identity?
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Sabbatical leave?


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 18 2014, 04:02 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 18 2014, 04:36 PM)
Flipper target is poor ice cream boy.
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Then flippers will be disappointed.

icemanfx
post Nov 19 2014, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(Gravity @ Nov 18 2014, 04:55 PM)
Point 1 - construction cost
what im trying to convey is that cost is continuing to rise. Bulk of the cost will falls under land acquisition cost. Land cost and construction cost will not fall unless major global event happen. On top of that, developer will want to make some money out of the project. Hence, the price will always match the vacinity. Thus, maintaining the price at a higher than market value level.

Point 2 - foreign investment
I was basically refering to FDI. If you're investor and you realized there are high capital appreciation gain investing in KL, why would you go for jakarta or Bangkok which price is already hitting a probable ceiling. Hence, people will still come back to KL for investment. No doubt the government has implemented many ways to curb the speculation, but for me, when there's a will, there's a way. The rich can still invest via different route.

It's all about ROI. Property gives you 10-30% of your purchase value, not your investment amount. With leverage from banks,  a property of RM500K, you only need around RM50K and say RM10K for expenses. A 10% rice in your market value will be already RM50K, hence there's effectively almost 100% ROI on your RM50K investment.
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Pricing higher than market value is only possible in the bull market.

People buy overseas property doesn't compare with home country or neighbouring country price e.g. many malaysians bought in sydney, melbourne, singapore and london not because the price is cheaper than kv. hence, few foreigners buy kv property because it is cheaper than bangkok or jakarta.

foreign buyers tend to buy near landmarks e.g. klcc. troika vp in 2009, price has been flat since means few foreigners are buying.

cocr was not a traditional measurement for accountants but invented by r.e agents for flippers.

QUOTE(cfa28 @ Nov 18 2014, 05:57 PM)
Nope, fall of 5% - easily kena sapu by secondary bargain hunters

To trigger a downfall, you need a slowdown in overall economy

Even if 10% to 15% of flippers sell below cost on VP, still no effect cos will kena sapu
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QUOTE(cfa28 @ Nov 18 2014, 06:14 PM)
U can sell immediately on VP, only issue is the price

Do u sell at Cost - 101% kena Sapu immediately by the Agent himself / herself

U want 5% Premium - sure got ready buyer

U want 10% Premium - have to wait a little longer lah

U want 25% Premium - have to slowly wait
U take any Condo project, even say 9-Seputeh

If even 15% to 20% of Purchasers suddenly wanna sell their units at 10% below cost, what do u think will happen

All the cash rich ppl or those who have yet to buy will sapu, so the Banks can recover their losses from these new purchasers over time

Mean time, they will sue the Flippers for their pants and A55, so there is no Bubble

For Bubble u need whole of KV Property Market to collapse, which is not likely
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This was what gold punters believed, there is no doubt, some ignorant bargain hunters will pick up initial round of discounted price. Those cash rich people who were not in market earlier were expecting price drop, will wait for the price to bottom before cherry picking.

Most if not all flippers will not sell below their expected profit willingly. They would rather hope to get a higher price at foreclosure auction than lower price in open market.

property price will take years to bottom.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 19 2014, 07:10 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 19 2014, 07:05 AM

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If kV property is half as good as what uuu hope, price of prestigious development at super prime location e.g troika won't remain flat since VP in 2009.

icemanfx
post Nov 19 2014, 07:13 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Nov 19 2014, 07:06 AM)
Mean gov less income lo. Then sthg else ll go up to cover the hole lo. Malai ma. 20 cents down cos pkr taruk ma. Liddat oso u happy ar shakehead.gif
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More tax collection from people, more bond issue, higher inflation rate, etc.

icemanfx
post Nov 19 2014, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 08:15 AM)
student, Ron97 drop price liao....but only those 1% people happy. bearbear cannot enjoy the price drop

Just like those KLCC condo > RM3m. If drop price why you happy ? As if you are buying...
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So called super rich and foreigners are not buying, what is the hope for overpriced property?

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 08:16 AM)
higher inflation rate --> material + labour cost increase price --> building cost increase --> house price increase

Finally you realise house price is increasing  rclxms.gif
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This is only one side of the equation and you have neglected the other half.

Oops! Indonesia benchmark policy rate raised by 0.25%. Wonder how much bnm will rise next April.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 19 2014, 08:58 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 19 2014, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 19 2014, 08:57 AM)
Sochai Ice Cream Boy, the rich is buying mass market property by the bulk.  thumbup.gif

Maybe soon the rich also not buying over inflated price ice cream, they buy mass market Mangnolia, Walls, Nestle, King & Cremo..  laugh.gif
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Those rich only bought mass market property as member of syndicate, will offload earlier and cheaper than flippers.

Most of those ice cream you mentioned are not classified as ice cream by law in e.u and u.s.
icemanfx
post Nov 19 2014, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 19 2014, 09:22 AM)
Wrong ! They bought is at "discounted" price & offload even later than most flipper to gain maximum profit, as they have huge reserved to hold, i know 1 fellow tell me he will sapu 10 units at one go then slowly release 1 by 1 to push the price to new height, according to him the margin better than his business  thumbup.gif

Doesn't matter we are in Malaysia, many rich also taking frozen fruit rather than your chemical laced ice cream..  rclxm9.gif
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So what I said about syndicate checked out.

Discounted price means syndicated price I.e lower cost. You don't expect them to tell flippers that they will sell earlier and cheaper? Guess you don't know how they work or experience with them.

Frozen fruit in Malaysia? Most of those cheap " ice cream" is not ice cream.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 19 2014, 09:38 AM

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