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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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SUSjolokia
post May 14 2014, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(andrewcha @ May 14 2014, 07:31 AM)
sifu sekalian, a wage earner here earning about 2k only. what's the best way to kickstart to own a property? was looking for a small small one to try.

previous history

1) no payslip, now late 20's only got job with payslip.

2) hardly to save an initial/downpayment.

3) no car loan/credit card. name was use once for one property under joint name.

hope sifu can sincerely give a pointers for me to learn and hope can successfully own one for marriage. area currently still considering after listen to one old chap said now location not really matter, matter is the price.

went to one property seminar before, got hyped up and now die off. few k down the drain
*
2K income better think of how to ensure there r food in your plate & money in pocket to survive.

Double or triple your income first then come back to ask.
Wiredx
post May 14 2014, 08:54 AM

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QUOTE(andrewcha @ May 14 2014, 07:31 AM)
sifu sekalian, a wage earner here earning about 2k only. what's the best way to kickstart to own a property? was looking for a small small one to try.

previous history

1) no payslip, now late 20's only got job with payslip.

2) hardly to save an initial/downpayment.

3) no car loan/credit card. name was use once for one property under joint name.

hope sifu can sincerely give a pointers for me to learn and hope can successfully own one for marriage. area currently still considering after listen to one old chap said now location not really matter, matter is the price.

went to one property seminar before, got hyped up and now die off. few k down the drain
*
How much downpayment do you have?
blah2blah
post May 14 2014, 08:56 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ May 14 2014, 09:40 AM)
2K income better think of how to ensure there r food in your plate & money in pocket to survive.

Double or triple your income first then come back to ask.
*
thank you for your words. will keep it as a motivation.

QUOTE(Wiredx @ May 14 2014, 09:54 AM)
How much downpayment do you have?
*
a few k only. not much.
SUSjolokia
post May 14 2014, 08:59 AM

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cd98926-d9e1-11...l#axzz31eAn1CNw


Chinese property is the most important sector in the global economy. It has been pivotal in the country’s economic development, provided lucrative business for industrial commodity producers from Perth to Peru, and been the backbone of the surge in world exports to China. In the past few years, predictions that the sector was about to implode at any moment have not been borne out – but now is the time for the world to pay attention. Property activity indicators have been trending lower since mid-2013, and the downturn in the sector now threatens to turn into a bust. At best, China is entering a deflationary phase at a time of global fragility.

The default risks in the weakly regulated shadow banking sector – and the rapid rise in local government debt – are real, and property-related. Yet the government and the central bank have tools to limit the short-term consequences; they have already deployed debt rollovers, bank bailouts and recapitalisations.

The greater risk to China lies in the pervasive consequences of any property bust. Property investment has grown to account for about 13 per cent of gross domestic product, roughly double the US share at the height of the bubble in 2007. Add related sectors, such as steel, cement and other construction materials, and the figure is closer to 16 per cent. The broadly defined property sector accounts for about a third of fixed-asset investment, which Beijing is supposed to be subordinating to the target of economic rebalancing in favour of household consumption. It accounts for about a fifth of commercial bank loans but is used as collateral in at least two-fifths of total lending. The booming property market, moreover, has produced bounteous revenues from land sales, which fuel much local and provincial government infrastructure spending.

The reason things look different today is the realisation of chronic oversupply. As the property slowdown has kicked in, housing starts, completions and sales have turned markedly lower, especially outside the principal cities. Inventories of unsold homes in Beijing are reported to have risen from seven to 12 months’ supply in the year to April. But when it comes to homes under construction and total sales, the bulk is in “tier two” cities, where the overhang of unsold homes has risen to about 15 months; and in tier three and four cities, where it is about 24 months.

The anti-corruption crackdown, often targeting individuals who have built up ostentatious property wealth, has poured cold water over the market, in which, according to a recent investment bank report, the richest 1 per cent of households is estimated to own about a third of residential property. Elsewhere, the tightening of credit terms, including funding costs for property developers, especially in the shadow banking sector, is taking its toll. Rates of return on commercial property and infrastructure, and cash flows for developers and local government, have been deteriorating.

The crunch in the property market, and for the economy, will come when land and property prices fall more broadly across the country. Official data still show that property prices in 70 cities were 8 per cent higher in March than a year ago – but prices have actually fallen since the end of 2013.

If activity levels and prices weaken further, Beijing’s resolve not to respond with traditional stimulus programmes is unlikely to hold. We should expect a potpourri that might include: extra spending on infrastructure and environment programmes; faster urbanisation in inland and western provinces; some relaxation on restraints on homebuying, such as mortgage deposits; and, ultimately, new monetary easing.

Such steps may provide financial markets and the economy with some short-term relief. But if Beijing goes too far it will undermine the essential strategy of rebalancing the economy, in which case the negative economic impact would be larger and last longer. China is different from the west in many ways but the real economic effects of a burst property bubble are the same the world over. Beijing will have to cope with them in the next two years but the rest of us should be prepared for the deflationary consequences in a still fractious global recovery phase.

bearbearwong
post May 14 2014, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ May 14 2014, 08:40 AM)
2K income better think of how to ensure there r food in your plate & money in pocket to survive.

Double or triple your income first then come back to ask.
*
At least double.. given the proo pruce nowadays 3 foldwould be best
bearbearwong
post May 14 2014, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(andrewcha @ May 14 2014, 08:56 AM)
thank you for your words. will keep it as a motivation.
a few k only. not much.
*
Few ks can buy new launch... currently LMRQ residence 5 k down payment.. monthly 800 to 1k installment plus maintenance.. that is worries that you need to face 3 years later...


blah2blah
post May 14 2014, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 14 2014, 12:06 PM)
Few ks can buy new launch... currently LMRQ residence 5 k down payment.. monthly 800 to 1k installment plus maintenance.. that is worries that you need to face 3 years later...
*
TQ for your reply. LMRQ mana tu? LOL. 800+1k installment + maintenance? Means every month prepare RM1.5k 3 years later?
SUSjolokia
post May 14 2014, 11:56 AM

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http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/14/business...earth.html?_r=0

HONG KONG — After almost two decades of nearly unceasing increases in real estate prices and construction across China, one of the world’s longest-running bull markets finally seems to be stalling, with broad consequences for the country’s economy and possibly its politics.

Prices are falling for both new and old apartments. The volume of deals is drying up. And developers are pulling back, furloughing workers and delaying new projects. In the latest sign, housing starts plummeted 25 percent in April from a year ago, the Chinese government announced on Tuesday.

It is a severe blow for a country where real estate sales offices have become ubiquitous and tower cranes are jokingly described as the national bird.

Su Hua, a real estate broker in Shenzhen, had his highest commissions ever last year, as a speculative frenzy prompted families all over China to buy and sell apartments at a brisk pace. But he sat in a deserted office late last week with several silent phones on his desk. His income has halved so far this year. laugh.gif

The question is how much further the real estate market will slow, and whether its troubles will spill into other sectors of the economy, notably the banking system. Any weakness in the great Chinese economic engine could reverberate through the global markets.

“You can’t predict how the bursting of a Chinese real estate bubble plays out because it plays out in very small steps,” said Joel H. Rothstein, a partner in the Beijing office of the Paul Hastings law firm who specializes in Asian real estate.

China’s real estate market correction — some economists are even calling it the popping of a bubble — is partly the result of a deliberate decision by the country’s leaders in Beijing.

The Federal Reserve and other regulators in the United States did not try to deflate what now seems to have been an American housing bubble in the years leading up to the 2008 downturn. But the Chinese leadership has been increasingly concerned over the last several years that housing prices were rising to unaffordable levels and that the economy was becoming overly dependent on investment; residential construction accounts for one-ninth of all economic output.


The result has been a series of policies that includes punitive interest rates for mortgages on second homes, a ban on the purchase of third homes and, more recently, deliberate action by the central bank to keep short-term interest rates well above the rate of inflation. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, reaffirmed tight credit policies on Saturday, saying that he did not think the economy was in sufficient trouble to justify monetary policy stimulus.

But the real estate market continues to slump, which could prompt Beijing to take a different tack.

Economic data released on Tuesday also included a deceleration in industrial production, with growth in steel and cement output slowing to a crawl. Retail sales also grew more slowly than expected in April, and the furniture market stalled as fewer families moved into new homes.

zuiko407
post May 14 2014, 12:23 PM

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Jialat liao


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zuiko407
post May 14 2014, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(andrewcha @ May 14 2014, 07:31 AM)
sifu sekalian, a wage earner here earning about 2k only. what's the best way to kickstart to own a property? was looking for a small small one to try.

previous history

1) no payslip, now late 20's only got job with payslip.

2) hardly to save an initial/downpayment.

3) no car loan/credit card. name was use once for one property under joint name.

hope sifu can sincerely give a pointers for me to learn and hope can successfully own one for marriage. area currently still considering after listen to one old chap said now location not really matter, matter is the price.

went to one property seminar before, got hyped up and now die off. few k down the drain
*
U can target price around 150k from subsales market
cfa28
post May 14 2014, 12:29 PM

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(andrewcha, following Sifu Rooney advice, some apartments < RM150K bearing KL Address

http://www.iproperty.com.my/property/searc...=&au=&sby=&ns=1
timesrun
post May 14 2014, 12:36 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ May 13 2014, 08:35 PM)
You tala property you mana tau ha budak?
*
I like this.. this got a very clear picture it gonna drop like shiat... drool.gif cool2.gif
SUSjolokia
post May 14 2014, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ May 14 2014, 12:23 PM)
Jialat liao
*
Accetera post English version u post chinese version is it, anybody got BM & Tamil version ah ? ...lol

Ask developer sure says price up lah ! think they would tell u price down meh ! later nobody would rush to buy current launching liao.

U ask Spain developer also would said price UUU. .. wakakaka
AppreciativeMan
post May 14 2014, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ May 14 2014, 12:42 PM)
Accetera post English version u post chinese version is it, anybody got BM & Tamil version ah ? ...lol

Ask developer sure says price up lah ! think they would tell u price down meh ! later nobody would rush to buy current launching liao.

U ask Spain developer also would said price UUU. .. wakakaka
*
The fact is that u don't kno many developer how u kno what they will say?? shakehead.gif shakehead.gif shakehead.gif
blah2blah
post May 14 2014, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ May 14 2014, 01:25 PM)
U can target price around 150k from subsales market
*
QUOTE(cfa28 @ May 14 2014, 01:29 PM)
(andrewcha, following Sifu Rooney advice, some apartments < RM150K bearing KL Address

http://www.iproperty.com.my/property/searc...=&au=&sby=&ns=1
*
TQVM both of you. Once my details and downpayment ready would try my best. Thanks
AppreciativeMan
post May 14 2014, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(andrewcha @ May 14 2014, 12:49 PM)
TQVM both of you. Once my details and downpayment ready would try my best. Thanks
*
thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
Great that u r not affected by those negative comments..... Good luck!
bearbearwong
post May 14 2014, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 14 2014, 11:06 AM)
Few ks can buy new launch... currently LMRQ residence 5 k down payment.. monthly 800 to 1k installment plus maintenance.. that is worries that you need to face 3 years later...
*
Hey andrew.. LMRQ is in semenyih.. 170k.. so installment around 800 monthly.. plus 200 maintenance around 1k..
SUSjolokia
post May 14 2014, 02:19 PM

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http://www.opp-connect.com/29/04/2014/sing...o-fall-further/

Singapore property investors ‘waiting for prices to fall further'


Rather than looking at overseas investments, many Singapore buyers are waiting for property prices to fall further at home before buying, says one market commentator

Residential private property prices fell 1.3% in the first three months of the year, the second consecutive quarterly decline and average prices of high-end non-landed homes fell 0.9%, according to the latest data from global agent Savills.

Alan Cheong, of Savills Research, says, “Caution rules the game, as sales volumes remain tepid.”

Developer caution is illustrated by the recent S$463.1million successful tender for the 268,713 square foot site residential site on Prince Charles Crescent, from UOL Venture Investments and Kheng Leong Company, which commentators say is conservative.

“The result of the recent tender of the residential site on Prince Charles Crescent shows that despite shows that despite strong demand for residential land, a cautious mood has pervaded among developers. This could lead to further moderation of launch prices of future projects, as long as the cooling measures remain in place.”

David Cheong, of Associate Director of RE/MAX Singapore – Real Centre Properties, tells OPP Connect, “Property prices are indeed falling gradually across both residential and non-residential sectors.

“It can translate that investors are turning to overseas for more profitable deals, but I think investors are more inclined to wait for local property prices to fall further to buy again.

“Singapore properties are still favoured by most investors as consistent growth assets because of Singapore’s limited land size, political and economic stability. With our population projected to grow to 6.9million by 2035, there will real demand for real estate (not speculation), which is a positive motivation for investors.”

One example is the Sky Habitat condo in Singapore was launched in 2013 at average S$1747per square foot, but did not sell well, as it was considered highly-priced. Recently, it was relaunched at 1300-1500per square foot and 100 units were sold in less than two weeks.

“So what is the point here? I think if the price is right, investors will still choose local properties over overseas properties, because of positive political, economic and social growth.”

Savills says the primary market in the next quarter could be temporarily boosted by highly anticipated launches in the Queenstown and Bukit Merah areas. “Small-sized apartments will continue to be the popular choice for buyers, while larger sized units may become the bane of developers.”

“Despite tapering demand in the high-end segment, a number of projects are expected to be launched within the next six months. These include Pollen & Bleu on Farrer Drive, Robin Residences on Robin Road, New Futura on Leonie Hill Road and Gramercy Park on Grange Road. In addition, two integrated projects in the city area, Marina One and South Beach Residences, may also be released to the market soon.

“Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the three upcoming projects in the city fringe areas, Commonwealth Towers by City Development Ltd, Highline Residences by Keppel Land and The Crest by Wing Tai. Slated to launch on 1 May, Commonwealth Towers was reported to have drawn about 1,500 viewers on its first preview day.”

ManutdGiggs
post May 14 2014, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 14 2014, 02:15 PM)
Hey andrew.. LMRQ is in semenyih.. 170k.. so installment around 800 monthly.. plus 200 maintenance around 1k..
*
Bro bear y u replied to urself for Andrew???

R u Andrew???
zenjet
post May 14 2014, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 14 2014, 02:15 PM)
Hey andrew.. LMRQ is in semenyih.. 170k.. so installment around 800 monthly.. plus 200 maintenance around 1k..
*
people wan get married ~ u recommend pigeon hole for what ~



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