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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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cfa28
post May 14 2014, 12:29 PM

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(andrewcha, following Sifu Rooney advice, some apartments < RM150K bearing KL Address

http://www.iproperty.com.my/property/searc...=&au=&sby=&ns=1
cfa28
post May 20 2014, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 20 2014, 11:24 AM)
Is it true that;
If a unit is transacted for $1.5m, similar unit in the same area/block could be valued for $1.5m?
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All things being equal, same location / area

Same type of Housing - say Intermediate Double Storey Link

Same Size / Built-Up

Same land Status

Valuation should be similar

General asking price of DSL in DPC is something like RM1.8 mln right? Some ask more cos of more extensive reno but generally, there will be a base price
cfa28
post May 20 2014, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 20 2014, 03:20 PM)
So it is possible to push valuation in a particular project/block by transact a few unit at elevated price?
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if there is enough new people willing to pay high prices for certain location - YES.

This explains how Kota Damansara - launched at RM350K, Leasehold can become > RM850K today right.

This kind of price is just too high for poor fag like me - but plenty of people still willing to pay that level of price and if their salary can qualify for the Loan, Banks are still willing to lend.
cfa28
post May 20 2014, 11:25 PM

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spoke to some analyst. OPR will definately to go up due to GST but govt may not want 2 rounds of OPR increase.

hence, some say BNM may wait until next year to increase OPR one time only.

lets wait and see, most of us have more loans than deposits. OPR increase won't do us any good, be it property speculators, genuine buyers.
cfa28
post May 21 2014, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ May 21 2014, 10:50 AM)
Can v hav some real life story happened in the 1Q 2014???

Apart fr the unproven GT.
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Q1 2014 still strong based on sales of

- Tropicana Heights
- South Bank
- Residency V
- MHK Projects


cfa28
post May 21 2014, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 21 2014, 11:24 AM)
Subsales?
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with so many new launches, sub-sales should be slower as sub-sales need more cash upfront
cfa28
post May 21 2014, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ May 21 2014, 01:59 PM)
Honestly the unit look pretty run down and old.

Need at least another RM100k++ to RM150K to make it look like new.

For almost RM800K, better buy say at K2, Nadayu 92, Tropocinana Heights or even at Semenyih. Can get Semi-D already. Got more space, lifestyle, newer but of course downside is further from KL
cfa28
post May 21 2014, 04:45 PM

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Wow, really, RM700K is the new low cost house in Penang.

QUOTE(gogo2 @ May 21 2014, 04:41 PM)
Make it new also no use because too small. Like living in a flat. What's the point right? Who will buy this? Not making sense at all.

This is what we call bubble?  hmm.gif

Another single storey house selling for RM700k meant for poor people to stay one:-
http://www.mudah.my/1+sty+terrace+reservoi...ld-26213368.htm

Hahaha, somemore posting with fake photo.
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At most, SSL should be at RM500K only

This post has been edited by cfa28: May 21 2014, 04:47 PM
cfa28
post May 21 2014, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ May 21 2014, 04:46 PM)
I also post the KL one. Same price.

All this price don't know who set one. Agent?

So which one of you poor people with RM700k want to stay in a single storey house with 1 toilet?  brows.gif
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Can add another Toilet. Someone posted at the Reno section.

SSL in OKR also at RM600K levels

http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...k-house-forsale

http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...k-house-forsale

http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...k-house-forsale

Wonder what will be the final transacted price.

Asking price always marked up right.
cfa28
post May 21 2014, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 21 2014, 05:26 PM)
palm walk 3 only 750k only.. sg long, if further can get TTDI kajang 22 X 75 650k.. new unit..
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To me, Size and Age beats Location anytime

A 40-year old house measuring 20 * 70 will always be 20 * 70 and 40-years old

But Highways can be built

MRT can be built

Schools can be built

Buy bigger, newer is always better than buying smaller and older
cfa28
post May 21 2014, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ May 21 2014, 05:55 PM)
40km from KL is forever 40km. 40 years old can "makeup" become new born baby.  icon_idea.gif 

look at this one

http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...k-house-forsale

the condition is not much better than the few you guy posted. Is it for poor people?
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True, 40 km is always 40km but measured in time, 40 km can reach in under 30 min during off peak and perhaps just under an hour for peak.

Seems acceptable by modern urban standards. The Gains, a bigger house that you look forward to come back to.

Space for your kids to run, play


cfa28
post May 21 2014, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 21 2014, 06:01 PM)
Ya lor gen y and gen x sure dunwant lor.. but unker like me may consider the location lor..
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but for the price, i rather buy a semi-D in Semenyih and still got RM400K cash to spare. Enough to pay for my toll and petrol for many years.
cfa28
post May 23 2014, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 23 2014, 12:57 PM)
congratulations, you are in safe hands for thinking such... kajang /semenyih here worse.. we have townships with 1000 units least supplies coming in
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1,000 units every 1 to 2 years at least.

Both SEH and EM is > 1,000 acres developemnt

MKH Kajang East, Pelangi II, another few hundred acres of develiopemnt

But for own stay or Long Temm Ok - Flipping a bit dangerous
cfa28
post May 23 2014, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 23 2014, 01:01 PM)
that is my view too.. sumore got soutville by mahsing township too.. so scary numbers of units coming in the market.. still got ppl gungho flip..

must go oh dis week to see EM launch.. see how many left..
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almost guarenteed almost sold out in 2-days.

After that, every week got say 5-units released due to Loan reject and taken by the waiting list

Key is not to launch 2,000 units at one go but 400 units every 6-months and see how market absorbs.

Each subsequent phase, increase price by 10%, previous buyers all happy and will recommend F&F to buy with the introduce r fee, etc
cfa28
post May 23 2014, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(gtfan @ May 23 2014, 03:43 PM)
Normal lar. You see those folks in every property thread, each time after launched, sure got someone post, i have a few units to let go with certain fees.

Reminds me of properties during the mid 90's where huge undertable $$$ are exchanged to get a queue to buy. Remember talam projects...people queue for a few nights yawn.gif

I have even notice one developer (i am sure more are like this), before opening their door, when they see a huge crowd outside their office, they will revamp their pricing upwards. One eg. IOI.

My recent encounter, country garden, on the launch day at a hotel, all link house sold out. Only got bungalow. I left, pretty piss and waste of time even though a booking fee have been paid to secure a balloting rights months earlier.

Next day, some joker started calling my mobile telling me he got special unit to let go but at a premium price. I ignored.

After 2 mths when i go collect my refund, guess what, the developer told me, hey we still have link house if you are interested at launch price. Told them off %$$#^&^^%.

N thus, i go buy ecohill. That also from loan reject cases.
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Cannot believe in this day of time, Developer still wanna play sticker game and then call you to offer Loan reject at higher premiums.
cfa28
post May 23 2014, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(YuenZhao @ May 23 2014, 04:13 PM)
U ppl are so funny, arguing on GDP etc
But how does that explain why developers want to increase price and rent? Is Malaysia going to face recession soon?
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There are strong correlation between Property Prices and GDP.

There is also correlation between Recessions and Property Bubble burst

Do you think that Malaysia GDP can be positive forever?

Regional and International economic outlook is not exactly very rosy right now sister.

QUOTE(gogo2 @ May 23 2014, 04:17 PM)
Nope. Malaysia won't face recession. Malaysia achieve unprecedented growth rate of 6.7% almost match China one. So no way Malaysia drop into recession.

From what I see, doubling of house price from the current price is achievable in 2018.

In 2018, not more RM700psf. All condo will start with RM1000psf.
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Not only that, DSL in Kajang will be > RM1 mln

This post has been edited by cfa28: May 23 2014, 04:18 PM
cfa28
post May 23 2014, 05:33 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ May 23 2014, 05:27 PM)
will BLR increase so much meh? don scare me le...i owe bank a lot. better sell now. I think more people going to bankcrup when opr increase in Jul this year. Come next year more increase. bubble will pop...now no gain no loss....better sell.
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Bro, not scaring you. BLR is 100% to go up.

The only question is when and by how much.

Latest for BLR to go up is by Q1 2015 before GST is implemented to give the retirees more money to cater for GST

Quantum is between 0.25% to 0.50%


cfa28
post May 23 2014, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ May 23 2014, 05:37 PM)
Increase in FD income?
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yep, BNM always give BS on need to increase OPR whenever there is inflation so retirees have enough money.

But 99 people have more loans than deposits right. So, increase in OPR / BLR only benefits the elite.
cfa28
post May 23 2014, 06:13 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 23 2014, 05:57 PM)
you also felt sth wrong with those ulu-ulu areas right? prices there match KL.. look at EM and SEH speculated future selling price

more expensive than the canary cherashartamas 3 storey baru selling 1.2 m to 1.6 million.. now maybe 2 million like that

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2568983/all
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BBW, you forgot about MKH Projects @ Kajang East and Pelangi Semenyih.

22 * 75 before rebate also above RM730K++ already

A bit too expensive but do you remember IOI at BPP when it was first launched.

Ppl also said expensive. Today, price more than doubled already and Puchond dem Ong.

Time will tell but for own stay - no issue, sooner or later Kajang & Semenyih will also ONG.
cfa28
post May 23 2014, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(gtfan @ May 23 2014, 06:18 PM)
Most new properties nowadays, rental won't be able to cover installment if loan is taken. Even a rm6mill corner new shoplot  will have problem trying to cover it's installment via rental income looking at the entry price.

So, what most investors banking on is purely capital appreciation and not rental yield. There are plenty of cash buyers out there especially those in sme businesses.
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Rental can cover installment if u take 70% financing or less. 50% Financing, rental sure to cover wan

But so many investors greedy, want rental to cover 90% or even 100% loan.

This post has been edited by cfa28: May 23 2014, 06:25 PM

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