We "youngsters" no longer read newspaper, we read e paper. ..wakakaka

It's "Surat Khabar Lama"

Now get back to bubble news.

Australian home values cool down

The rising influence of Chinese
investors in the Australian property
sector means the Reserve Bank of
Australia has lost its ability to use the
official interest rate as a tool to protect
Australian investors against the risk of
a housing bubble, UBS regional chief
investment officer Asia Pacific Kelvin
Tay told a luncheon crowd in Sydney on
Wednesday.

I am not very fimilar with their livestyle, glad u find them entertaining.

http://www.independent.ie/business/persona...e-30241835.html

THE Irish economy is not out of the woods. There are quite a number of things that could yet go seriously wrong, including in the banks and with the public finances. Even the recovery itself could falter.


If you want to worry, fret about these matters. There is much less to fear from property prices.

Developments in Dublin over the past 18 months in particular have led to talk of a bubble. While property prices could fall again if there was another recession or a big external shock, they are not going to fall because of the bursting of another bubble — for the simple reason that there is no bubble.

Many people react strongly to anyone who says that the recent uptick in house prices in the capital is not a bubble. This is understandable. The effects of the property and construction crash have so traumatised the nation that we have gone from being blase about the risks of property price increases in the pre-2007 period, to being paranoid about them now.

Assessing the extent to which property prices reflect the underlying fundamentals is not an exact science, but there are a whole series of metrics which should be watched and, when taken together, give a very good indication of the sustainability of price rises. When these metrics begin to get out of line with historical or international norms, it is time to start worrying. Currently, none of the warning lights are flashing.

After a price overshoot, there is usually an undershoot The very definition of an asset price bubble is that prices overshoot the level that all supply and demand factors suggest they should be at. When a bubble bursts, the process goes into reverse. Then, prices tend to undershoot for a variety of reasons, including the drying up of credit and the postponing of purchases by buyers in order to avoid immediate capital loss.

Dublin prices rose faster than prices outside the capital during the bubble. Since the crash they have fallen further. With prices in the capital in March of this year (the latest figures available) still exactly half what they were at the peak in February 2007, despite the rises since 2012, there is no sign of a bubble. The uptick over the past 18 months is much more about a correction of the post-crash undershoot.

Bubbles can't inflate without excessive credit

The growth in mortgage lending was extraordinary from 2002 until 2008. This was the central factor in inflating the bubble, as excessive credit expansion is in blowing up bubbles of most kinds.


(Country experienced Property Bubble Burst in 2008, among P,I,G,G,S some writer in Ireland now denied there is BUBBLE, )

My dispatch boy looking for a 5 millions property, my reception looking for a 10 millions bangalow with pools, best of all my tea lady looking for a mansion she ask me whether can help her looking for Helicopter landing pad & a full size Olympics pool + a multi storey car park to put her 200 Ferrari, Lambo, RR, Bentley & etc.

I think these people may be up to millions in Malaysia. ..wakakaka

Lot's Penglipur lara in lyf..lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: May 5 2014, 08:59 PM

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-Barclays-woes/

CHINA’S property boom is said to be on its last leg and possibly reaching systemic proportions.

“In 1990, Tokyo’s total land value accounted for 63.3% of US GDP (gross domestic product), while Hong Kong reached 66.3% in 1997.

“Now, the total land value in Beijing is 61.6% of US GDP, a dangerous level,” said Vanke Group vice-chairman Mao Daqing.

According to The Telegraph, a leaked recording of Mao’s dinner speech more or less confirms what the bears have been saying for months.





It is a dangerous bubble, and already deflating, says Ambrose Pritchard-Evans in his column in The Telegraph.

China’s anti-corruption campaign has resulted in a flurry of home sales as many people try to get rid of high priced units.

Transaction volume has slowed down in the 27 cities surveyed, of which 21 cities have inventory exceeding 12 months, said The Telegraph, quoting Mao.

“We believe that a sharp property market correction could lead to a systemic crisis in China, and is the biggest risk China faces in 2014,” said Nomura’s Zhiwei Zhang.

The risk is particularly high in third and fourth-tier cities, which accounted for 67% of housing under construction in 2013, said Zhang, as quoted by The Telegraph.

China can leave the situation to correct itself or prick the bubble.

“Whatever measure is taken, when China sneezes, you will catch a cold, wherever you are,” said Pritchard-Evans in his column.

Citing the decision by the US Federal Reserve to pop the bubble in 1928, he said it caused a lot of adverse effects which the world should be aware of.

The United States was then the world’s rising creditor power, with foreign reserves above 6% of global GDP, almost exactly the same as China’s holdings today.

The other major announcement last week was Barclays’ plan to trim staff.

Hot on the heels of shareholders’ rejection of its bonus plan, Barclays is cutting 19,000 jobs over the next three years.

Barclays increased its expected job cuts this year to 14,000, from 12,000 announced in February, with the extra 2,000 jobs going in the investment bank, according to Reuters.

It said it woukld cut a further 5,000 jobs in the investment bank by the end of 2016.

Under its revival plan, the 320-year-old bank will set up a bad bank which will carry £115bil of risk-weighted assets.

This includes £90bil of investment bank assets and all of its European retail banking operations, amounting to £16bi of assets.

Barclays is raising £5.8bil (US$8.9bil) from its shareholders to help plug a larger-than-expected capital shortfall.

Barclays certainly has a lot to deal with before it can comfortably start thinking of rewarding its staff with big bonuses.

New, potentially risky practices among asset managers and mortgage servicers have been identified by the US Financial Oversight Council in its latest report.

At issue were indemnifications that asset managers offer some clients involved in securities lending activities to guard against the risk of borrower defaults, said the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Although asset managers did receive collateral in exchange for the securities they lend, the report raises concerns that indemnifications could still leave asset managers at risk because they were not required to set aside capital, SCMP said.

Mortgage servicers handle borrowers’ accounts, processing payments and handling foreclosure proceedings.

The report says non-bank servicers do not have the same capital, liquidity or risk oversight as banks. As a result, it said the failure of a non-bank servicer could hurt investors in mortgage-backed securities.

The regulators have taken the initiative to identify risks posed by the non-bank sector.

It will be interesting to see what measures they will take to contain these risks after flagging the red flags in the sector.


Back in Business

This post has been edited by jolokia: May 12 2014, 05:09 PM

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/consumer/property...20140508-340870

U mean keep property till 2016 will end up with zero gain & paid interest to bank, better cut profit & dispose it now ?

2K income better think of how to ensure there r food in your plate & money in pocket to survive.

Double or triple your income first then come back to ask.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cd98926-d9e1-11...l#axzz31eAn1CNw


Chinese property is the most important sector in the global economy. It has been pivotal in the country’s economic development, provided lucrative business for industrial commodity producers from Perth to Peru, and been the backbone of the surge in world exports to China. In the past few years, predictions that the sector was about to implode at any moment have not been borne out – but now is the time for the world to pay attention. Property activity indicators have been trending lower since mid-2013, and the downturn in the sector now threatens to turn into a bust. At best, China is entering a deflationary phase at a time of global fragility.

The default risks in the weakly regulated shadow banking sector – and the rapid rise in local government debt – are real, and property-related. Yet the government and the central bank have tools to limit the short-term consequences; they have already deployed debt rollovers, bank bailouts and recapitalisations.

The greater risk to China lies in the pervasive consequences of any property bust. Property investment has grown to account for about 13 per cent of gross domestic product, roughly double the US share at the height of the bubble in 2007. Add related sectors, such as steel, cement and other construction materials, and the figure is closer to 16 per cent. The broadly defined property sector accounts for about a third of fixed-asset investment, which Beijing is supposed to be subordinating to the target of economic rebalancing in favour of household consumption. It accounts for about a fifth of commercial bank loans but is used as collateral in at least two-fifths of total lending. The booming property market, moreover, has produced bounteous revenues from land sales, which fuel much local and provincial government infrastructure spending.

The reason things look different today is the realisation of chronic oversupply. As the property slowdown has kicked in, housing starts, completions and sales have turned markedly lower, especially outside the principal cities. Inventories of unsold homes in Beijing are reported to have risen from seven to 12 months’ supply in the year to April. But when it comes to homes under construction and total sales, the bulk is in “tier two” cities, where the overhang of unsold homes has risen to about 15 months; and in tier three and four cities, where it is about 24 months.

The anti-corruption crackdown, often targeting individuals who have built up ostentatious property wealth, has poured cold water over the market, in which, according to a recent investment bank report, the richest 1 per cent of households is estimated to own about a third of residential property. Elsewhere, the tightening of credit terms, including funding costs for property developers, especially in the shadow banking sector, is taking its toll. Rates of return on commercial property and infrastructure, and cash flows for developers and local government, have been deteriorating.

The crunch in the property market, and for the economy, will come when land and property prices fall more broadly across the country. Official data still show that property prices in 70 cities were 8 per cent higher in March than a year ago – but prices have actually fallen since the end of 2013.

If activity levels and prices weaken further, Beijing’s resolve not to respond with traditional stimulus programmes is unlikely to hold. We should expect a potpourri that might include: extra spending on infrastructure and environment programmes; faster urbanisation in inland and western provinces; some relaxation on restraints on homebuying, such as mortgage deposits; and, ultimately, new monetary easing.

Such steps may provide financial markets and the economy with some short-term relief. But if Beijing goes too far it will undermine the essential strategy of rebalancing the economy, in which case the negative economic impact would be larger and last longer. China is different from the west in many ways but the real economic effects of a burst property bubble are the same the world over. Beijing will have to cope with them in the next two years but the rest of us should be prepared for the deflationary consequences in a still fractious global recovery phase.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/14/business...earth.html?_r=0

HONG KONG — After almost two decades of nearly unceasing increases in real estate prices and construction across China, one of the world’s longest-running bull markets finally seems to be stalling, with broad consequences for the country’s economy and possibly its politics.

Prices are falling for both new and old apartments. The volume of deals is drying up. And developers are pulling back, furloughing workers and delaying new projects. In the latest sign, housing starts plummeted 25 percent in April from a year ago, the Chinese government announced on Tuesday.

It is a severe blow for a country where real estate sales offices have become ubiquitous and tower cranes are jokingly described as the national bird.

Su Hua, a real estate broker in Shenzhen, had his highest commissions ever last year, as a speculative frenzy prompted families all over China to buy and sell apartments at a brisk pace. But he sat in a deserted office late last week with several silent phones on his desk. His income has halved so far this year.

The question is how much further the real estate market will slow, and whether its troubles will spill into other sectors of the economy, notably the banking system. Any weakness in the great Chinese economic engine could reverberate through the global markets.

“You can’t predict how the bursting of a Chinese real estate bubble plays out because it plays out in very small steps,” said Joel H. Rothstein, a partner in the Beijing office of the Paul Hastings law firm who specializes in Asian real estate.

China’s real estate market correction — some economists are even calling it the popping of a bubble — is partly the result of a deliberate decision by the country’s leaders in Beijing.

The Federal Reserve and other regulators in the United States did not try to deflate what now seems to have been an American housing bubble in the years leading up to the 2008 downturn. But the Chinese leadership has been increasingly concerned over the last several years that housing prices were rising to unaffordable levels and that the economy was becoming overly dependent on investment; residential construction accounts for one-ninth of all economic output.


The result has been a series of policies that includes punitive interest rates for mortgages on second homes, a ban on the purchase of third homes and, more recently, deliberate action by the central bank to keep short-term interest rates well above the rate of inflation. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, reaffirmed tight credit policies on Saturday, saying that he did not think the economy was in sufficient trouble to justify monetary policy stimulus.

But the real estate market continues to slump, which could prompt Beijing to take a different tack.

Economic data released on Tuesday also included a deceleration in industrial production, with growth in steel and cement output slowing to a crawl. Retail sales also grew more slowly than expected in April, and the furniture market stalled as fewer families moved into new homes.

Accetera post English version u post chinese version is it, anybody got BM & Tamil version ah ? ...lol

Ask developer sure says price up lah ! think they would tell u price down meh ! later nobody would rush to buy current launching liao.

U ask Spain developer also would said price UUU. .. wakakaka

http://www.opp-connect.com/29/04/2014/sing...o-fall-further/

Singapore property investors ‘waiting for prices to fall further'


Rather than looking at overseas investments, many Singapore buyers are waiting for property prices to fall further at home before buying, says one market commentator

Residential private property prices fell 1.3% in the first three months of the year, the second consecutive quarterly decline and average prices of high-end non-landed homes fell 0.9%, according to the latest data from global agent Savills.

Alan Cheong, of Savills Research, says, “Caution rules the game, as sales volumes remain tepid.”

Developer caution is illustrated by the recent S$463.1million successful tender for the 268,713 square foot site residential site on Prince Charles Crescent, from UOL Venture Investments and Kheng Leong Company, which commentators say is conservative.

“The result of the recent tender of the residential site on Prince Charles Crescent shows that despite shows that despite strong demand for residential land, a cautious mood has pervaded among developers. This could lead to further moderation of launch prices of future projects, as long as the cooling measures remain in place.”

David Cheong, of Associate Director of RE/MAX Singapore – Real Centre Properties, tells OPP Connect, “Property prices are indeed falling gradually across both residential and non-residential sectors.

“It can translate that investors are turning to overseas for more profitable deals, but I think investors are more inclined to wait for local property prices to fall further to buy again.

“Singapore properties are still favoured by most investors as consistent growth assets because of Singapore’s limited land size, political and economic stability. With our population projected to grow to 6.9million by 2035, there will real demand for real estate (not speculation), which is a positive motivation for investors.”

One example is the Sky Habitat condo in Singapore was launched in 2013 at average S$1747per square foot, but did not sell well, as it was considered highly-priced. Recently, it was relaunched at 1300-1500per square foot and 100 units were sold in less than two weeks.

“So what is the point here? I think if the price is right, investors will still choose local properties over overseas properties, because of positive political, economic and social growth.”

Savills says the primary market in the next quarter could be temporarily boosted by highly anticipated launches in the Queenstown and Bukit Merah areas. “Small-sized apartments will continue to be the popular choice for buyers, while larger sized units may become the bane of developers.”

“Despite tapering demand in the high-end segment, a number of projects are expected to be launched within the next six months. These include Pollen & Bleu on Farrer Drive, Robin Residences on Robin Road, New Futura on Leonie Hill Road and Gramercy Park on Grange Road. In addition, two integrated projects in the city area, Marina One and South Beach Residences, may also be released to the market soon.

“Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the three upcoming projects in the city fringe areas, Commonwealth Towers by City Development Ltd, Highline Residences by Keppel Land and The Crest by Wing Tai. Slated to launch on 1 May, Commonwealth Towers was reported to have drawn about 1,500 viewers on its first preview day.”

http://house.ifeng.com/news/market/detail_...5181588_0.shtml

玩完 !

有价没市 = 好像曼联的鲁尼 哈哈哈。。。

Snap out of it, me no Rooney, me no like soccer.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-b...wn-economy.html


China's authorities are becoming increasingly nervous as the country’s property market flirts with full-blown bust, threatening to set off a sharp economic slowdown and a worrying erosion of tax revenues.


New housing starts fell by 15pc in April from a year earlier, with effects rippling through the steel and cement industries. The growth of industrial production slipped yet again to 8.7pc and has been almost flat in recent months. Land sales fell by 20pc, eating into government income. The Chinese state depends on land sales and property taxes to fund 39pc of total revenues.


“We really think this year is a tipping point for the industry,” Wang Yan, from Hong Kong brokers CLSA, told Caixin magazine. “From 2013 to 2020, we expect the sales volume of the country’s property market to shrink by 36pc. They can keep on building but no one will buy.”


The Chinese central bank has ordered 15 commercial banks to boost loans to first-time buyers and “expedite the approval and disbursement of mortgage loans”, the latest sign that it is backing away from monetary tightening.


The authorities are now in an analogous position to Western central banks following years of stimulus: reliant on an asset boom to keep growth going. Each attempt to rein in China’s $25 trillion credit bubble seems to trigger wider tremors, and soon has to be reversed.

Bear2 u don't pusing the fellow lah. ..later he depression. .lol

Best way is combined income to buy subsales 200+K apartment, new launch forget about it as us selling at 3-4 years future price.

Other solution get PKNS or PR1MA, but need to MMT lah, latest news govt will sponsored 30K for low income group to buy low cost house, so hurry up apply before ur income increase & no more qualified. ..hehe

Sound like Gombak 126 Residence, mostly sold apart from those 500K++ 2 room unit.

900sqf unit 550-580K if I remember correctly, problem is only 2 room, kind of funny design that why still couple unit available, 5,6,700sf mostly sold.

Maintenance fees quite high RM 0.36 psf

Malay area with lots of Pak Hitam & Pak Arab lived near by coz near UIA.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/20...apse-has-begun/

China Property Collapse Has Begun

Nothing is going right for Hangzhou at this moment. Walmart will be closing its Zhaohui store in that city on April 23 as a part of its overall plan to dump marginal locations—about 9% of the total—in China.


Thanks to the world’s largest retailer, another large block of space in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province, will go on the market at a time when there is generally too much supply. The problem is especially pronounced in the city’s premium office market. Hangzhou’s Grade A office buildings at the end of 2013 had, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, an average occupancy rate of 30%.

The real weakness, however, is Hangzhou’s residential sector. The cause is simple: massive overbuilding. Sara Hsu of the State University of New York at New Paltz writes that Hangzhou faces “burgeoning swaths of empty apartment units.”

Hangzhou’s market has not yet collapsed. There are still secondary sales, for instance. Singapore’s Straits Times reports Allen Zhao, a businessman, has been looking to sell his two-bedroom flat in Hangzhou for 2 million yuan. His neighbor just let go a similar unit for 1.7 million. If Zhao also sells for that amount, he will make a profit, but he will be disappointed. “That is not much more than the price I paid in 2012,” Zhao told the paper. “Now I’m regretting not selling earlier—more bad news about the property market keeps coming in every day.”

New homes also face price pressure. Developers in Hangzhou are now offering deep discounts, and investors and owners are noticing. And not just in that city. “It seems that the 30% price cut in Hangzhou really changed the way Chinese people think about real estate,” writes Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, “and I doubt there is any turning back from here.”

Not every developer is offering such deep discounts, but as Stevenson-Yang tells us the city has become the symbol of a market in distress. China Central Television on the first of this month devoted a segment to the problems of the “unstoppable price decrease” in Hangzhou property in its Economic 30 Minutes show, and discounts in that city, the Wall Street Journal notes, could be “a signal of broader market weakness ahead.”

The real estate market in Hangzhou looks like it has just passed an inflection point. It is not so much that fundamentals have deteriorated—they have been weak for some time—as that people’s mentality has changed.

As state-run China Central Television explained, the problems in Hangzhou, once the world’s largest city, began on February 18. Then, the North Sea Park development began offering deep discounts. Rumors that the developer had cash problems started a chain reaction across the city. It did not matter that North Sea Park issued denials. Other developers began offering either deep discounts or large incentives, but the tactics did not work. By then, there were almost no buyers.

Now, the problem of no buyers is spreading across the country. Sara Hsu notes China’s residential markets are becoming inelastic. “Once consumers stop buying,” she writes, “deep discounts are ineffective in drawing them back.” People aren’t buying because they believe prices will decline further.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices across the country are still going up, but percentage increases have now declined for three consecutive months, signaling a peaking.

Official statistics do not seem consistent with the general trend of reports, but in any event severe problems are evidently ahead. The secondary property market has tumbled, with sales falling by more than half in Q1 2014 from the same quarter in 2013. Speculators have either left the domestic market or have sold off holdings. Rich Chinese, now interested in foreign holdings, are also shunning their home market. Foreigners, who own only an infinitesimal portion of China’s property but who are a bellwether nonetheless, are investing at the slowest pace in at least a decade. Middle class Chinese are also largely out of the market.

And that’s not all. China property trust sales plunged 49.1% in Q1 2014 from the previous quarter, from 99.7 billion yuan in Q4 2013 to 50.7 billion yuan. The precipitous fall was due in part to the failure last month of developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate, which had 3.5 billion yuan of indebtedness.

Moreover, just about everyone expects more developers to close their doors. For one thing, the central bank is not injecting liquidity as fast as it once did. And interest rates are increasing, the reason why a Finance Ministry one-year bond auction failed on Friday. Many private developers had gambled that property prices would rise faster than interest rates, but that now looks like a losing bet. Zhejiang Xingrun, for one, became insolvent after it had borrowed at ultra high rates.

China is at the point where problems are feeding on themselves. Pessimism about property, which accounts for about 15% of China’s gross domestic product, is beginning to affect the broader economy. Declining property values look scary, despite cheery statements from government officials who assure us the property bubble is “not big” or analysts who say that the problems are not “systemic.” But the Chinese don’t look like they are buying either of those views. “If this continues, it will have immense impact on the whole Chinese economy,” says an unidentified Hangzhou real estate salesman on Economic 30 Minutes. “Without question, everyone thinks there is a bubble.”

The People’s Republic in the “reform era” has not suffered a nationwide property crash. Analysts say the problems in Hangzhou are “regional,” but now fundamentals and market sentiment either are or will be pushing markets down across the People’s Republic.

“The banking system and the shadow banking system are becoming concerned about exposure,” says David Cui of Bank of America BAC -1.26%. “Once people refuse to provide credit to developers, their balance sheets will be under pressure, forcing them to cut prices. Once enough of them cut prices, fewer people would buy because most people buy property only when they think the price is going up. If this persists, it will turn into a vicious loop.”

Premier Li Keqiang has a few tools at his disposal, but they look insufficient to stop a general collapse of property prices across the country. The problems, deferred from late 2008 with massive state spending, have simply become too large. And we must remember that he works inside a complex, collective political system that is generally unable to meet challenges swiftly.

But that does not matter. There is little any leader can do. Collapses occur when people lose confidence. That is now happening in China.

But Latuk nowsdays landed rental yield really kesian oh ! I saw 1 DSL sell for 380K but rental only RM 650

Can't even cover half of mothly installment.

Remember sub sales require lots of $$$ as bank valuation may not be as high as owner asking price, meaning u need to come out with more DP if bank valuation is low, lesser competitor r refer to new launch meaning those financial weak dare devil flipper got kick out, but subsales require cash rich buyer, subsales more for own occupy not for u to make quick $$$.

Kawan if so much easy money lying arround, u think those big shark would not swallowed it meh ! still got left over for ikan bilis like us ? ..

Buy one for to stay, later u got lots of $$$ they think flipping lah.