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Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 05:02 PM
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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 04:23 PM) Sometimes there are some "inexperience" property investors asking me to look for corner shop which rented to bank. Investor : "I like corner shop, shop can rent to bank" Me : "ya, good. Everyone also knows that" Investor : "Find for me good corner which rented to bank" Me : "wats yr target gross ROI" Investor : "6%-8%" Me : "Good, if I found one, probably I will be the purchaser" A corner shoplot facing main road which rented to bank for 15K/mth wd probably asking for > 5.4 mil easily Agent who advertises shoplot which achieves 8% return are 99% bullshxx! Must be careful oh lapsap agent .. english non fluent agents... here alot keep talking still on BBB mode.. some just come address on the issue of bank ownership only the rest treat them as invisible.. some township owners diam diam see.. dun dare vomment waiting the weak point then talk non stop..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 26 2014, 04:54 PM) Can't deny there are some fish that escape from the fishing net. The last paragraph of my posting you quoted I acknowledged that. #1 - #4 are illegal acts to the flippers in respect of BAFIA. For the bankers who help the flipper, it constitutes criminal breach of trust. If there are people who could risk their life to commit drug trafficking, the deceit on banks and BNM is small matter in comparison  Bribe lahh... loan officet got target lehh.. bo target.. basic also no.. chinese majority.. and owayls leading to 1 university that one just discharge from PKFZ...documents can settle one.. btw BAFIA repealled.. now FSAMA.. is not just a some.. is many... This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 05:09 PM
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 05:06 PM
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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 04:59 PM) Many lawyers are jobless indeed Yup those cap malaysia larr.. u see they all roting.. those overseas are preffered -.- if you are really lim kit siang in person.. there goes my vote srlangor 6 votes down.. This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 05:14 PM
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(sampool @ Jan 26 2014, 04:44 PM) we hv huge mid class support the rental... how to drop.  Ya hor high rise in kl.. but like you city 575k.. 3 rooms loan.. 2.4k.. reduce sum will be ok.. get 1.5k oso reduce.. u notice flats and low vost are highly occupied.. Wahh.. outskirt prop habis lu ..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 06:16 PM
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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 06:08 PM) We need to know what's the income of mid class to be able to do an analysis. For me, I would think mid class is about 5-7k a month gross income. At 7k gross that would only be about 5.7k nett after tax and statutory deduction. They wouldn't go and rent a 2500/month housing. That rental is 43% of their nett salary. And the 2500/month rental is based on zero cashflow for the owner if he/she bought the property at 500,000k over 35 years of loan. So if earning 7k can't rent a 500,000 property, then who will rent property that is newly launch at above 700k in Klang Valley? Let's ponder that deeply. I'm still wondering as well cause I for one will not spend so much $$$ on rental. Rather stay at low rental place and spend my money somewhere else. the problem is.. they will say they dont full rental.. 50% enough liao.. other sap sap sui for them.. less 50 % burden here they flip elsewhere
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 06:18 PM
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 26 2014, 06:16 PM) Never doubt that there are cases that escape BAFIA and I witness some first hand myself. P/S I am a ex banker who still keep contact with ex colleague. We always sensationalise fraud cases in banks to our friends as it is a very good story during drinking session. Especially attractive to mui mui zai who loves dramatic plots. Maybe u can start with some names branch and position..so dat I can house clean these ppl report to attorney general... coz after dis u got new plot to tell and dis time rreal.in life..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 10:15 PM
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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 06:26 PM) Alright, if double then sure can. Then the questions is, if double income, they could definitely buy a house instead of renting right? And since they can afford to buy for own stay and perhaps have also bought it already. Then who is gonna rent the rest of it from the market? Woi... double no neex to get marry.. no kids expenses.. now notmally 2 kids.. sumore chinese u count.. yearly salary increase to tackle inflation.. loan intetest fluctate... childrens expenses.. no neex tink just pay loan to easy u flippers mehh.. say 3 person lah invonve bro sister good mou.. just want to meet loan repayment to show still afgordable.. come on.. this point was settle and done
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 10:18 PM
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QUOTE(restful increase @ Jan 26 2014, 06:59 PM) Matured areas damandara heights, sri hartamas, desa park city, TTDI, Bandar Utama, Bangsar, Kenny Heights..and several others..even when property bubble burst..how much can d landed property prices dropped in these areas? 5% ?? In paper will increase.. but why.. got takers mou.. exclude KENNY HILLS dat one lease left less than 50 years.. u sure still NAIK.. check first...
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bearbearwong
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Jan 26 2014, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 07:35 PM) These were the places that went thru the 1997 and 2003 global crisis without major price downward adjustment. I think the "save area" would be extended to some other mature area, such as Puchong, Kepong, Cheras, Sri Dsara, Sungai Buloh, SS2/3. Shah Alam landed properties where most of the landed properties are owners occupied. Owners would defend their own shelters to the death, so possibly there would be price stagnant but no transactions scenerio during the bad time,, price unlikely to drop significantly. The concern would be more on the fast growing and more likely oversupply area, such as Cyberjaya, Mont Kiara, Jalan Ampang row, Ara Dsara....No offence to those who have vested in this area, this is my personal observation. How can u miss both major township.. their supply going to flood d market... Kl FRIENDLY NEIGHBOURHOOD wor.. very south.. south xx and echo hill.. these 2 big brothers.. how?
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 09:07 AM
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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 02:45 AM) No ... that's not what subprime means. SUBPRIME in USA are category of ppl NOT qualified to get house loans. Not just bankrupt. It's bcoz banks in USA got a plan to reduce their risk from subprime borrowers with MBS (mortgage backed securities). They sell this MBS to other investors hence "transferring" the risk. With MBS, they also "average" out the risk bcoz it's a mixed of subprime and prime borrowers. So in Msia ... are there ppl NOT qualified to get loans, getting loans. YES. They are consider SUBPRIME. Ppl who uses REFINANCING to buy another property with 10% downpayment. They refinance one property to buy 2 properties. And then they flip these property to make a huge profit margin. The process repeats until they are holding more and more properties. This is ONLY good when the market is in BULL mode. Some even quit their day job doing this, living on rents. So their credit worthiness is compromised when they quit their jobs. Basically putting ALL in one basket .... Property basket. They also moved themselves frm PRIME to SUBPRIME category. The Msian banks may be prudent in their loans approval but borrowers were not. They think good times will keep rolling and property prices NEVER drop....  Oh gosh there you do it again.. not a lone ranger after all.. some dudes here keep goreng subprime issue to only include ppl who bancrupt.. well it is not... I have just demonstrated that holding power if any even they can afford wilk me making a losing investment.. purely based on calculation.. not taking into account rental yielsds in areas which is virtually certain to have none like outskirt areas.. expensive studios such as amanya (kes koyak when he admitted rental returns was not good... but at the same time without tenant holding is a loss irregardless you bought for 400k.. 500k.. still making a loss just margin wise may differ)... So .. can I safely assume those high rise (which is observable at night of their occupancy rate) signifies that investors are holding ... so means the longer they hold.. the bigger margin in losing.. so long term invest is bullshit... those outskirt project got ppl rent dat much.. assuming those high rise able to rented out despite inflated rental price.. you gotta cross your fingers that that they rent there long term..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 10:11 AM
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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM) If Malaysia property crash 50%/70%, "Subprime" is still not an appropriate word to be named IMO, correct word is "Property market bubble and crisis" Actually subprime or not subprime refers to ones ability to repay.. if subprime (based on the above) is not a similar model to malaysia(claimed by many here)... that does not negate the fact that investors / flippers who hold prop in vacant mode will get burn.. correct or not.. Why suddenly malaysian in banking sector are as good as singaporean as we speak?.. no loop holes.. no bribe.. loan officet no sales target.. all loan approve to flippers are good all pass stringent test .. then no need worry di.. storm come also no problem... just dat u making a lost in investment right..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 11:58 AM
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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 11:17 AM) If u and yr UUU buds r confident in the market?.... I suggest ALL in la..... Better than wasting time posting here right?  Ya lor.. forumers here all half pass 6 salary worker.. why wanna pretend old uncle and cash loaded lehh.. I also suggest u guts all in.. but in their heart "siao meh750 DSL outskirt or 600k high rise in kl or more)" haizzz... dat amanya last someone pick wild card issue and report us .. this threads was close ... pissed bo.. agent.. but in actual fact u say u want hold it for long term dat 2 room studio.. ok lahh I make it more general lor manny studios around you oso cost the same size d same.. actually potential buyers who have the above cinsideration run through is enough liao.. Earlier say di.. many ppl seeing no reply when burn their investment sure reply geh..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 27 2014, 11:22 AM) share market drop...property up or down? if share market drop...ppl dare not buy stock...use money to buy property...so property up? Dude.. ok we agree increase ok... but just making loss even increase.. u just want to say prop price will increase right.. in mature areas.. u tell your ppl wen you bring them to see house tell them bout my calculatiob..then tel them at the end still increase.
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 11:31 AM) Already put laa, already got my return. I already nick my name Amaya. When ddd ask me not to put 3 years ago, i still put and wow look at my rewards. Ehh.. last I check u say u want to hold and still hold right and say got ppl offer u leh.. u say u dun want sell leh just last week lehh.. now sell liao.. reap profit liao.. name I check d S&P .. or I do land search see.. transfer di ir not agent..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 01:00 PM
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QUOTE(Banting_AE86 @ Jan 27 2014, 11:54 AM) Malaysia Household debt to GDP of 83% as at Oct 2013. 80% "households" earn less than RM5,000 and thus can ill afford mortgages for 30 years loan on a RM500,000 property that costs RM2,460 monthly service at 4.25% interest but would cost RM3,193 a month , at prevailing base lending rate of 6.6% Household debt in Malaysia – Is it sustainable and healthy? Why S&P Cuts Outlook on Malaysia Banks on Household Debt Concern? Why BNM implemented so many new measurement aimed to avoiding excessive household indebtedness and to reinforce responsible lending practices by key credit providers partially the new reference rate frame work? These figures and actions speak louder than words. Just hope their property to sell off and painting how good d market is they will justisy everyting.. and count ngam ngam for you to service d loan.. other issue they keep low.. Kind of like pay to talk.. we then again is just pure talk without proof..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 27 2014, 01:39 PM) You are right. Thats why we have to do selective buying even in a good time. But no buying at all just want to wait for bubble happen is not a good strategy. Unless you really not afford to buy a house even in a good time and expect fire sale in bubble. I still reserve my bullet for bad case scenario like bubble and make sure have enough cushion to face it. Im doing the same.. affordable one I sure grab.. cancel fixed deposit oso buy if aafgordable
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 01:53 PM
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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 01:40 PM) Emm i am reaping the benefits of buying it before it increases and holding it. Yes i dont want to sell. No need when sunway velocity is 1m. Good oh.. I see u mean launcing time grab di.. cheap cheap.. still sustainable.. even repayment.. just if vacant for quite sumtime even with new launcheas price my calculations will crystalize into real.. u going ti be making loss.. lower margin.. u see u dun hold it forever if not sure loss and no investors want to make a loss.. at certain time u will let go just waiting perfect storm or waterwish.. 750k or 650k amanya 2 room.. for d next 5 years.. really no go..and couple with yearly prop increase it easily shoot up to 700k. Right.. In d mean time.. u will bleed if vacant... those who intend to buy at this flipped price.. ur marginal losses will be greater.. there is no way u can rent out a 2 room studio for 3.5 k.... in maluri area.. even 2 k ( assuming dude buying at 450k ) also difficult.. dude I tink plan to loss the money he earn just to prove us wrong.. in future many more location are nearby train station.. amanya still need a walking distance thou.. passing by old shops jusco.. pizza hut ( sumtime can drop by buy MCD) ...
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 11:51 AM) Hv to agree bubble "burst" already started since 2010, here and there, it's piling up, DDD tktt pls stay tuned, it will be yr turn to slaughter the pigs I be honour to do the slaughtering/ stripping of property and belongings.. can smell them.. agents surefirst to go..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 05:13 PM
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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 04:35 PM) Agree 50%, if. 650K has taker, the next transacted done at 630K, followed by 600K deal done., then this is a significant drop, we call this situation a 10% correction for that particular period, at that particular sector, location and type of property. Asking price can be any figure, but kenot be taken into consideration of mkt movement. Btw, I 100% agree that new launch price really crazy. Sumore wat.. fueled by flippers.. developer follow suit..the market follow the flipping price.. U ask investors.. new launches whether it is still worthy of investing or not..
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bearbearwong
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Jan 27 2014, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE(tienzyee @ Jan 27 2014, 04:36 PM) +1, developer pushed their profit to maximum possible. That means no room for flipping di ..agree maa. Like echo hill second phase launch berapa? 650k DSL ?
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