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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 1 2014, 11:58 AM)
550k? Wat do u mean ?
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the echo hill project right 450k launched.it will finished on 2016? how much is the selling price? minimum 550k? right or not? minimal profit 50k on DSL... sure the so call owners want to sell ah?
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 1 2014, 12:18 PM)
i dun care bubble or not just rented my house with 30% increase in rental. smile.gif
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u mean in semenyih?
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 1 2014, 12:20 PM)
puchong..
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prime area ? bandar putri puchong? means 1k rental, 30% increase is 1,300? room or house? they allow you to increase rental for 30% in the tenancy agreement?
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(lin00b @ Feb 1 2014, 12:21 PM)
What's the difference between high end and low end flippers?
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high end flippers are ppl with business or steady MNC income and invested in property/properties, and can sustained any price correction/crash/adjustment as their ability to repay loan is not an issue as they have alot of reserves. (FD,shares and etc)

low end or mid end flippers are those mainly salary workers which i believe mostly here (below 8k nett individual) and also follow suit invested in property (low risk) or properties (high rish high return) and does not possessed repaying loan ability for long term holding of the property in the vent there is any price correction/crash/adjustment. and are desperate to sell once completion of the said invested property.
these group of ppl hardy meet their ends despite their middle income salary, low income is not able to play this game at all..

m 2 cents
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Feb 1 2014, 01:11 PM)
Tats the key issue. Loc is so important in prop.
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U agree dat outskirt project gone.. if loc is imp
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 1 2014, 12:07 PM)
I thought one of the highlights & among your many qualification is been a popular "figure" in lyf..lol

Been involved directly in property business your "opinion" no longer creditable, sorry... I am sure those who work in Geneva Gold would never admit it's a scam..wakakaka
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Wah dis case.. many claimant cry in d court.. in filing d claim.. acvording to their testimony they only have safe keeping receipts in singapore cirtus cissco a famous store gold company..

dat hakim in open court say the pool money left 20 pe4cen5 only .. how ti distribute to all ppl wen there is a lost of 80 percent.. greedy investors
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 1 2014, 02:32 PM)
but the fact is after so many years of so called bubbles and also 'bad economy' yada yada yada....the price is still increasing right?

will it be another scenario of the boy crying wolf and a few years later it is still the same message that there is bubble and economy is 'bad' ?

what about the article posted by someone recently or probably i read it somewhere....malaysia only launched the cooling measure such as what you posted below....but look at Singapore...after so many rounds of cooling initiatives...the property price is still pretty much up there...

furthermore, malaysia is holding the interest rate flat...and there's a sign that it won't be increased anytime this year...

btw, if you go ask around for new property launch, the agent or seller will tell you there are ways to work around the DIBS removal....since there's no DIBS...now the property developer will be giving big discounts upfront so you can use the money to cover for the DIBS...

end of the day...as a buyer...the offer you get is still comparable between DIBS vs huge discount upfront...so there's always ways around the rules....
notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif
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This time reli serious.. u also know..
DIBS is d tool for speculation.. by bringing back DIBS in backdoor further proof that many investors are working class.. and very low holding power.. for low or middle class flippers.. selling upon VP is the only way and not a choice like high flippers..

No matter how u justified.. the prop price has go beyond.. the market u previously targetting (low income.. middle.. upper middle income) has shrink to ( middle income and upper middle income group in which by 2015 the middle income grooup will totally be elimated leaving upper middle) those rich already are you guys.. agents are middle class too ya..

the affordability issue cuts deep.. even a fallback plan like takingvrent will lock your credit ...dat is also anothet stop to fresh soeculations

hey that increase issue I have address greatly 750k exsmple .. u are making a lost for long term holding despite increase..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Feb 1 2014, 03:20 PM
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 1 2014, 02:32 PM)
but the fact is after so many years of so called bubbles and also 'bad economy' yada yada yada....the price is still increasing right?

will it be another scenario of the boy crying wolf and a few years later it is still the same message that there is bubble and economy is 'bad' ?

what about the article posted by someone recently or probably i read it somewhere....malaysia only launched the cooling measure such as what you posted below....but look at Singapore...after so many rounds of cooling initiatives...the property price is still pretty much up there...

furthermore, malaysia is holding the interest rate flat...and there's a sign that it won't be increased anytime this year...

btw, if you go ask around for new property launch, the agent or seller will tell you there are ways to work around the DIBS removal....since there's no DIBS...now the property developer will be giving big discounts upfront so you can use the money to cover for the DIBS...

end of the day...as a buyer...the offer you get is still comparable between DIBS vs huge discount upfront...so there's always ways around the rules....
notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif
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even with this of foundation/market sentimens I.e DIBS backdoor DIBS u dare to ask ppl to invest knowlingly these buyers does not possess the ability to buy with 10 percent diwnoayment and etc..

I still think is overpriced/ inflated and upper middle class are not that dumb to see it..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Feb 1 2014, 03:17 PM
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 1 2014, 03:18 PM)
1997-Tis time is serious
2008-Tis time is serious
Now - Tis time is serious

Every time oso serious. Market up n down. Who can predict more accurate. He can make more money. U predict 750k is impossible. Some predict crisis only will come after reach 1mil.
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1997 not serious mehh? Bukit beruntung wor..

now very good meh.. seen phonomena of SOLD but VACANT through any cycles?
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Feb 1 2014, 03:28 PM)
What to do? That's only hope for the salary worker to get rich or go to hell. No risk no gain. If follow Germany property tax system everybody happy... no more goreng house. First year tax u 95% in u sold the house. 2nd year 90%. Each year only reduce 5%.. Then no more happy goreng scene. They even tax Kau Kaw to the landlord who gain profit from renting house.
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U also worker.. haizz.. investment can.. dun go so far 200k nett profit.. come on how to justify.. this more like hitting toto or jackpot
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Feb 1 2014, 04:16 PM)
Define outskirts pls. U might hav diff definition to mine. hmm.gif
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Our 2 big brothers.. echo hillzz and south vxxlii.. consider ah?
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Feb 1 2014, 04:36 PM)
Err, my definition of loc is important is slightly diff. U ll find superb prime units in bangsar but at the same time some units tat nobody wan in bangsar park. Both species r loc in bangsar, vely prime within KV. U can oso find most shops in kajang undesirable but there r few tat come with vely gd rental tat the owners r not selling even tempted with high offer.

I blif there r gems in all areas. Loc of the unit one is holding is so important. And I beg to differ fr ur pov of bkt tak untung. Many failed in buying resi there. But some make such handsome profit investing the industrial lands there. To them bkt tak untung is so untung. Guess u as a repoman should able to provide some real life examples bout it rather than onli some of the lelong cases??? Btw I notice klcc oso has auction fr owners which is a gd sign rather than bad sign. To add to it, onli few owners doin it.
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Oh ur loc is that term.. yup I agree.. even kajang.. taiping.. semenyih.. seri kembangan.. ipoh.. kampar.. can be good loc.. but certain spot in the prine area.. but some area /loc are not even in ur list.. likewise stated above.. even it is it shall not interest you.. coz u need to wait..

rental yields in shop are for high end/long term investors with cash rich..

bukit beruntung..residency bank dun bother ho auction.. I taken photos of bkt betuntung shophouses just dunno upload here.. care to guide..

bank see bkt beruntung prop.. just write off the loan and any credit faclities they know koyak case..

but now inflated highrise and outskirt landed are going the same pricess sooner or later.. once vacant long enough.. illegal swuaters..and scvangers be there hunting ur alumuniums.. window framas... doors gates and etc..

My repo experience tell me those prop I repoed.. all many debts(to me) but are investment to them..

one ex bank officer pleaded me to talk to the bank to refinance her own house and 2 other invested house.. despite she still owing us crefit cards and few banks..

I did and the bank manager say.. owning us 30k di.. still want us to refinance.. for you.. go fly kite..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Feb 1 2014, 04:52 PM
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Feb 1 2014, 04:47 PM)
I'm having 0% knowledge in resi other than own stay units. I only know shop factory and land. Not even ofis play. It's no surprise my prime differ fr ur prime.
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Wah dailou.. these are big players.. bangi hub there many semi d factory..sg chua oso has semi d factory..
I m zero in industries.. but srmenyih many factory one..
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 09:24 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 1 2014, 07:59 PM)
I may not agree with you about the bubble but I agree that by putting down rm5k or rm15k only as down payment,  some ppl can easily earn rm200k or maybe more...

But as long as there is buyer... the price shud not go down but probably earn less and more realistic number...
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Provided that ur figure is within affordability limits.. price up to 700k above is upper middle clasd di.. as discussed 10k nett joint... nowadays no joint cant buy...u see the market u target what class are those and who? Agent basic 2.5 k.. with commision can reach 10k geh but how many and steady bo?

U agree or not.. there is already an answers to it.. the arguement of increase in salary.. yearly already being addrrssed in detail as we spoke...
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 1 2014, 07:59 PM)
I may not agree with you about the bubble but I agree that by putting down rm5k or rm15k only as down payment,  some ppl can easily earn rm200k or maybe more...

But as long as there is buyer... the price shud not go down but probably earn less and more realistic number...
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Have you wonder why devellopers launcing prices are attaining the flipped price.. they follow suit and reap the maximum profit... that 750k price is d future 10 years price.. however I dun think these ting gell into your thoughts.. just a point to ponder upon in d event bubble really happpen and the prospect buyers..
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 09:24 PM)
Provided that ur figure is within affordability limits..  price up to 700k above is upper middle clasd di.. as discussed 10k nett joint... nowadays no joint cant buy...u see the market u target what class are those and who? Agent basic 2.5 k.. with commision can reach 10k geh but how many and steady bo?

U agree or not.. there is already an answers to it.. the arguement of increase in salary.. yearly already being addrrssed in detail as we spoke...
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Please have some rational and concensus on the salary across the board.. surely sum jokers wil say average salary is 10 to 15 k individually..

I summarise the prop price increase has very little to do with d constructions.. labour price.. it was d agents and property investors appetite has grown bigger.. just hope to hit a jackport or in somcase where it involves multiple property.. millions....
bearbearwong
post Feb 2 2014, 12:45 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 2 2014, 12:03 AM)
Ok... I agree that in some cases there will be joint buyer... but that also means there is no bubble yet because still can afford? I mean end of the day even if it is joint purchase there wont be any loan repayment problem....

Also... I always have this question and maybe discussed before.... I think bank not so stupid... as long as bank can approve the loan... whether it is low end or high end flipper... as long as bank approve means no problem... it doesnt make sense a bank can blindly approve loan to someone who possibly cant pay in future...
What do you think of this? If we continue to have new buyer with bank approved loans.... what bubble are we talking about? Dont compare to US...I think our banks more diligent than US bank... smile.gif and furthermore after US subprime crisis... I think bank will learn from experiences and prevent this from happening...
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Our banks safeguards.. I doubt.. u see car loan sector.. aren't they d same bank..? Is it that hard to get loan?

Think again even joint applicant of 10k nett will need to squeeze whatever they have to service d loan.. for 35 years... look at those bank officer.. are they interested in safeguarding it or his own commission.. u know what I m saying.. any agent will know.. like valuation report case if valuation cant get 90% what you do? Pay differential sum? Or pay the valuer? Bank relying on valuer is to safeguards their ass.. coz wen audit report come u have valuer report(even distorted) to justify.. anything wrong sue valuer..

how many have 10k nett joined? Those who achieved this yes there are but they senior post di.. along the 35 years dunno how many time interest fluctuated di.. marriage.. cars.. children expenses.. cars.. insurances..

ur salary increase will forever not enough to counter the price hike.. you are not naive to believe so many qualify the loan subsequently able to repay? Right... bank computing 60 percent or even 70 percent salary to service loan got logic or reasonable ( investors flippers not taking loan to maximum i.e 35 years and 70 or 60% loan).. this is just on assumption that the investors/flipper ccris is a clean slate one

U need to differentiate the difference between qualification to take up a loan and ability to repay.. loan repayment comes monthly.. jobs can be loss.. no promotion.. change jobs.. and Malaysian tends to use more than less.. some example like lets say a MNC company take you to fill their manager post, you may pass the 1st interview, but the performance and ability to cope with the work is another thing together (thought i believe many uses the backdoor to get employment i.e ppl introduce and got friend inside)

Computing 60 % for loan repayment leaving you 40 % for credit card.. food.. room rental(most flippers does ad their new prop are for sale).. phones.. and some form of contingencies.. u see enough? Thus CNY itself surely spend more maa.. and upon you take this loan, there are 35 time CNY..coming

the trend I notice is only newly completed houses landed or high rise shall have that boost of price from 450k to 750k (taking echo hill as exmp) many others also same.. as it is still new and modern design... when it is tenanted or vacant for few years.. it loses out even prime location.. after that initial boost.. it is impossible for another boost.. like from 750k to 1.05 million (2 years exactly same margin like previous 450k boost).. can this happen or Wat or "doable" at the height 750k buyers are suffocating 1.05 m.. I already told you by 2015 if this is the trend ur pool left with upper middle class income and rich)

and if you hold enough bank loan repayment you will make a lost as calculated.. and this time affordability cuts deep... i think if flip sumore.. you also wont be able to buy..
those project tainted with location issue will surely even worst.. malaysian has never departed from Location location location.

and my personal opinion, Bank negara has implemented the measures too slow, resulting property price to reach beyond safe.. pocket bursting in outskirt areas will trigger the total bursting.. coz the market sentiments floats around and comes around...

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Feb 2 2014, 01:07 AM
bearbearwong
post Feb 2 2014, 02:28 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 2 2014, 01:29 AM)
U try to give many worst case scenario...
I try to provide positive points la ok?

What if the flippers continue to flip... u say if reach 1mil then left a small pool?

What if actually those who flipped earlier already earn 250k or 300k and they actually have that cushion to absorb it? Think about it... smile.gif I am not creating a scenario... this is a real life example I see... started with 250k property and slowly flipped and going higher until 1mil property.... u forgot this pool of ppl?
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the worse case scenario is like bukit beruntung (at least the worse as I know), kota warisan sepang, nilai areas (long time ago there was few rows of abandoned shops) harmony park(dengkil), putrajaya project.. the garden residence(putrajaya).. adn of course our series of high rise(like my favourite example AMANYA maluri, pertama residency and etc..) i.. i have taken photos, maybe u want to see how horrible it is before proceeding further? it is consider a ghost town (bare in mind it is still selangor) with zero occupancy, dismantalled windows frames, roller shutters, broken and shattered glasses, long grades, awful smell, complete silence, birds shits everywhere and etc


the pool of people u mentioned, will you guys dip your hands into the trouble waters? again? lets say the above mentioned pool or the "profited flippers" really can cushioned the loan repayment, their credit will be locked beneath for 35 years, well to be realistic 5 years or 10 years.

this itself will deter the same pool from investing/flipping around on the new projects. with these speculations will be lower.. or minimized. then again cushioning will not prevent the price from coming down, because the said pool are not many in numbers and they will hesitate whether this is still a good climate to flip anymore? because when your next door neighbor dishing out fire sales, it will affect you. TTDi kajang itself it has already reaching 5 months marks vacant but SOLD.. like saujana villa kajang has already 2.5 years vacant but SOLD, but as time goes by interest will bleed them to death..

i dunno my idea works, flippers after they say have earned, they tend to upgrade themselves to a upper middle class or even rich class, they still will be bind by loans of which is higher tiers say TTDI Bandar utama, Mont kiara, and etc (especially those between later 20's to 40').

the other type of profited flippers will still go on a rampage mode, buying non stop until their credit ability seizes, when that comes, the pool of potential buyers shrinks, bubble will start, i really dun believe these flippers are fool enough to hold the property despite bleeding monthly UNLESS some sick ppl want to prove some point.. which i highly doubt.

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Feb 2 2014, 02:33 AM
bearbearwong
post Feb 2 2014, 02:38 AM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 2 2014, 02:01 AM)
So in future only flippers can sell to pool of flippers or rich people. Also provided that those flippers who make money and save all the money lar. But easy money tend to be spend easily as well. Ends of the day it boils down to affordability. Demand for real estate is always there, but how many will be able to afford it is another matter.

Everyone wants to drive a luxury car, but how many can actually afford to do that?

The problem I felt is that since around 2009 with the DIBS scheme being introduced by the developer during that time as the primary reason why property is getting so high today. With DIBS and 5% down payment, that time almost every tom, d*** and harry can buy property. Property prices that time was about 300k and with all the easy entry. Buyers only need to fork out 15k to own a property and doesn't need to spend another cent until VP. So by now that property probably in the region of 500k in secondary market but the valuation is probably around 430k. So now a second hand buyer need to fork out atleast 113k cash to just buy that property and that is not even counting the legal fees and etc.

So if 1 million ringgit property but with bank valuation of say 850k, the buyer has to fork out 235k cash excluding legal and etc. How many person can fork out almost quarter million to buy a property?
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this is very true, nowadays forking money more that 100k, i doubt ppl who have that sum of money would park in , as it will leave you nothing with in the event you lose job, business gone bad, sales went bad(no commission) and etc.. no money to withstand the crash/correction/drop or other contigencies.

if these ppl with these foundation carry on with their idea of owning a property despite the inflated price, they run the risk of being bankruptcy anytime.

i would say the government measures is till a mere "half of a full punch, rather than a full punch", they can be more mean, if i were given the power of the same, i will curtail it better, well if..
bearbearwong
post Feb 2 2014, 02:48 AM

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QUOTE(gedebe @ Feb 2 2014, 02:45 AM)
hey guys, check this out, although this is office in big building, it is related with the resident property:
http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20140123-G...property-bubble
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this office stuff blind also know it is oversupply.. office are of different league from house for stay.. offices few millions one house below 1 million for now.

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