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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 27 2014, 08:29 PM)
Ur point is for those no proper planning in investment. For those no such big head butbuy such big hat or no such big backside but eat so much "lau sai" ubat.
If the guys got proper planning in investment. Do u think will he/ she bankruptcy once bubble burst?. N if she/he won't bankruptcy. So , Wat investment strategy should they use?
As I replied to ur previous post. Some of the ppl willing to hold the property instead of cash.
Y?. Nobody will know next crisis will happen in where or Wat. If really happen in curreny ringgit. I think u need to change ur point from beginning of the day.
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oh dat means echo hill and southville different lor.. right mou.. township right? by sp setia adnd mahsing right? jade hills and TTDI groove kajang by TTDI and Gamuda leh? still vacant oh..

but if you really hold.. and place so far... my previous post.. here is my reproduction again

850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ? Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL.. u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..

is this some joke?
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 12:11 AM

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QUOTE(Gizaman @ Jan 27 2014, 09:51 PM)
Why you keep saying no one rent? Unless one bought in really new or ulu place, it is very easy to rent out, at least for rental RM2.5k and below. So stick to location and one will not have such problems. By renting, somebody else helps to pay down installments.
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one question.. is echo hill.. southville.. kota warisan sepang.. taman tasik semenyih.. coalfields ... mantin..seri pajam.. bukut beruntung.. rawang 2 residence consider ulu to you? pick which one.. coz out of these.. vacant list but sold still many?

the 2 large township u know who... how? first phase itself 600 unit havent finish completion.. they di talking about increase to a "DOABLE 750k " minimum DSL..
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 27 2014, 09:56 PM)
boss, let me know if u got kota warisan unit available, am interested.  biggrin.gif
coffee on me...
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kota warisan small project.. u got balls mou a land behind kota warisan 150 acre agriculture .. freehold non bumi.. facing elite highway.. ready to sell.. and is 15 minutes away from friendly southville ..

built and buy.. confirm utnung

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 28 2014, 12:13 AM
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 02:37 PM)
Once really bubble burst. Whole market no good. Income oso uncertain maybe becoz company biz no good n uncerttain then they feel not secure. At the end oso can not buy.
Wait till market recover. Company biz become good. Got increment n feel secure but oso unable to buy coz house price oredy increase like crazy. sad.gif  sad.gif
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Or maybe just affect the flippers leh.. low end ones the most here..

the buy now theme or will increase later will not work.. it is already beyond affordability..

economic plunge or burst there are still rich to wallop wat.. and of course manu still waiting... as long the price plunge.. there is possibility ppl attaining so.. better than keeping increase forno reason..

or if really burst.. financial institution tightens causing many not qualify for a short period... those invested.. they will go bancrupt.. then all property under loan or even free of encumberances will be vested in OA nane and sell off accordingly.. of course cheaper just to cover d loan owed by flippers.. thereafter.. chances of grabing will be better as flippers already bancrupt or risk of defaulting ccris koyak.. unable to get loan.. less pool of ppl buying or compete..

a bubble burst in pocket and then full mode is needed to restart the property price back to normal.. with this to reliase.. some group of ppl really need sacrificed.. and I anticioated mostly agents and low end flippers to take the full hit... thereafter the high end flippers will exit the market or reduced accirdingly
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 04:52 PM)
That y I said ur point is for those no proper planning in property investment. Not all of the ppl.
Once buble really burst. Which group of ppl will go in to buy property?? Cash rich ppl.
Now who continue buy property with proper financial planning ? Cash rich ppl oso
Only thing how much they wat allocate now n how much keep for future or as back up.
U keep telling all ppl bubble, overprice,
Alamak ...
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As long it is cheaper and market heading to a downturntrend to a reasonable level..before slowly appreciating..

And a long the way eliminating speculators or even deter cash rich ppl will do.. by burst.. rich ppl will be very careful.. but for house owners it is their time..

u bought echo hill for stay.. why is the worry and anger as I posted in echo hill.. no reason..u agent? U allege u early 40 retired.. if bought echo hill... mb need be around 50 to reap d profit.. that time.. maybe.. the full fledge township will crystalize to highly populated area..
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 06:01 PM)
U r right, we should share our info n experience instead to comment no good, bubble, over price and BLU BLU. Then what  should we do? At the end no answer.
My strategy very simple. Property still is very good investment tool provided u got holding power but dun allocate all the cash or affordability to property.
I prefer land n followed by shop lot, third only residential.

How abt u ? Can u share?
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maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..


now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price.. if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 28 2014, 06:38 PM
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(Gizaman @ Jan 28 2014, 07:11 PM)
Your messed up assumptions and logic and method of calculation plus disregard for present value of money means garbage in garbage out. Get hold of methods of financial calculation and then do a proper analysis.
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If I miss.. mind sharing?
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 28 2014, 07:12 PM)
buy 10 years only earn RM100k?
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Maybe u got a bettet figure? Name it.. I thought you are the insisted 100k 10 years..

then again.. 750k (originally 450k) upon completion landed 2 years.. so another 10 years will be 1.2 million plus 750k.. around 2 million?... logic mas?

Lets not go far moment u purchase it for 750k.. after 3 years 1 million.. u want to buy? Loan of 4.5k per month for 35 years
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 07:20 PM)
Good question n hope got good answer
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Every potential buyer try/ avoid parking in money in the name of HOLY GOD for a house once get married.. dontjust buy blindly.. but keep d optiin open.. look for prop below 500k..

For existing owners.. intending to flip with low holding power to flip less dun follow d horde.. the horde is invulnurable (cash rich) flip bitbit suan liao.. those high end.. I m nobody to advise you.. may HOLY GOD be with you when burst since u holding many..

For owners intend to stay.. no worry on price but to upgrade to semi D from DSL.. Maybe bit difficult but doable.. important hope iccupancy high...

for snipers.. aim properly.. the plunge is about to crystalise longest before Q3.. hope snipers are not another version of flippers

bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 10:07 PM)
Look like u oso think property is good investment. Only thing is below 500k property. Which project u refer to ? And Y u think tis project got potential ?
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For home stay my friend....
bearbearwong
post Jan 29 2014, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Jan 28 2014, 11:08 PM)
Investors are not likely to aligned to UUU nor DDD. If you cant manage ur risk profiles of dumping >100k to invest on something, then go settle down for FDs. In the end of the day shouting here and there up down left right gain nothing. Investors are already pocketing handsome profit years along and gearing up for future, whereas our keyboard warriors here still shouting for bubble and gained NOTHING. Haha, sour grapes are still the same. Probably when 5 years back also shouting the same propaganda on affordability. Now when see their peers cash in and have nice cars, then blame the flippers (which of coz its their fault!). Hell, if I were to pass you free easy moneh 100k in front of your face you would die to grab it right? If you couldnt 'afford' 5 years back, which definitely not now, then it sux to be you bro :-/

Normally these biased kind of ppl, when ask them about property future, they will complain and blabber tons of cons (which I do agree too!). But when ask them how much have you gained from it, they couldnt answer. The same attitude 10 years back and also now. It wont change. What a shame ^.^
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Brother the same 10 years is really different wave liao.. everytime ppl say tsunami come bo lang chap... the prop price went hair wire just these few 4 years leaving effect of overinflated price and vacant unit but sold.. was this happening in your last 10 years or even 5 years..

bro this time really serious.. in my view.. u can go ahead and grab as much as posdible.. I doubt you still act like last 10 years.. grab when there is launches.. there is a change in the demographic.. u also notice it.. gud luck..

we have nth to lose here.. started poor be poor.. well u guys started middle class .. risk d chance losing..
bearbearwong
post Jan 29 2014, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Jan 29 2014, 12:11 AM)
Say what you like, I rather hold good properties than to hold cash..
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Likr bkt beruntung.. kota warisan.. taman tasik srmenyih.. ttdi groove.. kajang 2.. bangi .. u be bleeding and credit locked.. just vacant is enough liao..


the trend now is south part 2 mega projects sure many youngster trapped.. look at their price... justified bo 400k servicr apartment . Outskirt lehhh... justified the price following flipped market ah...
bearbearwong
post Jan 29 2014, 12:24 AM

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QUOTE(brother love @ Jan 29 2014, 12:00 AM)
No risk no gain, bet big win big, people who tink and overanalyzed often missed opportunities right iin front of them, many year/ down the road they will still lament and complain and justify why they didnt grab the chances...i know many such people...some of them just too risk aversed
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I m not sitting down waiting holy god to ask me buy.. option are open to affordable housing.. I ting different I aint here investing... the world is so cimpetative.. everyting is calculated till d end... same like flipped prop dat ptice is maximum for at least 8 years ahead..

consult any actuarist.. maybe can share new thoughts
bearbearwong
post Jan 29 2014, 12:42 AM

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QUOTE(MishimaZ @ Jan 29 2014, 12:29 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Damn sure many believed you when most in iProp was advertising for rent lesser than RM2k.... many believed in you for sure thumbup.gif !!

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Damn straight!! Many got green in envy, got a beautiful condo of with lush environment with seconds walking distance to LRT, so many antique shophouses so Malacca-like for Cuti-cuti Malaysia, many foreign expats love such places because damn convenient and walking distance to the greatest banking hub in city centre la!! Walaueh!

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

No!! Those are really bad buy!! My parent's RM750k Mahkota Cheras shophouse only manage to rent the ground floor at RM3.5k.... Now upper floors vacant and just do charity work, cannot la!! No return at all when people wanna buy at RM1.4m!!! Expats do not want our place because it is a crappy area for banking, economy only depends on banks and bankers lah, other businesses do not generate economy prosperity one!

For own stay, walau.... Already over RM500k for a way bigger and confortable sized landed, but cannot la, must join the crowd ma! Die also must buy Amaya area lah... Now only RM500k for 719 gigantic square feet! Guaranteed expats rental one, RM2.5k monthly rental yo!! After some time, can go up RM3k, then RM4k, walau! So sad that most missed the damn boat cannot be rich like you now, including me... cry.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Haiya... want regret meh... Don't la!!! Many people believe jor la! Don't pissed off please... Not many Cheras people here what's more knew how the area like, that's why like these people DDD you know!! So sellable that so many advertisements trying to sell of many of their units!! Nobody buy takpe, next year increase 20-30% some more because sure got takers la!! That time economy maybe bolster by folds, maybe 50-60% increase also possible, since KLCC is so damn near!!  Hehehehehe.....
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I m serious lehh dat amanya reli an overkill in price.. studio man 2 rooms.. u know some smart ppl partitioned d space with no fan and taaaaaaa...
3 rooms.. come on... take a drive and see at night... so low d occupancy every flipper want to sell.. previously right amanya got KLCC view ione.. unfortunately.. velocity block di.. now after piling works and now carpark totally block liao..block view

tell you thought developer promise got klcc view.. u cant fight in law go court oso lose lose.. one can have right of eastment right of way.. right of view cannot.. england got case say cannot .. some county council vs canary wharf.. some ting like dat..

amanya tak mau goreng you.. that place got warisan city view condo 420k. miharja condo 400k.. miharja phase 1 180k and phase 2. 150k ..pudu ulu impiana condo 3 rooms 430k.. dat PGRM ting.. and the next building oso service aoartment.. and of course our PPT highly populated one.. amanya 750k.. very difficult...


bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 1 2014, 10:40 AM)
"Miss the boat", sound familiar from gold discussion threat especially before the peak and the following crash.

May be "Miss the boat" is an indicator that the bull run is coming to the end.
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becareful when addressing this issue and some forumers.. shall we..
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 11:43 AM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 1 2014, 11:03 AM)
Should be fair for all of ppl to voice up the opinion. Anyway, all the points highlighted must be supported by reliable statement. This forum is good if we share out info, experience n sources. Final decision is depend on individual.
Really appreciated for those share info with the justified statement n experience

Dun just imagine n plug the figure from sky n ask for more info... The answer never come bk. tq
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still this issue.. tell us how much u want to sell then?? at least 550k not to suffer any loss in investment..
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 1 2014, 11:36 AM)
Unlike stocks and commodities, property is illiquid, it takes years for price to bottom, hence price crash is unrealistic.

Further, during depressed period, subsales asking price remain unchanged but different story in foreclosure case. Hence, sellers use asking price as benchmark and buyers will prefer foreclosure price.
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foreclosure different ball game liao... asking price cannot quote liao.. evrytime bo bidder.. drop 10 percent.. if got ppl bid then ok.. some place no one want to bid..
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(macguyver @ Feb 1 2014, 11:43 AM)
This topic "Is the bubble finally bursting?" shall not be created nor discuss in the first place as in reality not happening. Why create so much of negative opinion toward property price? Do you know property is one of the country economic backbone?

Simple question, what can you see the properties prices as of now compare to previous years? Increased right? So just face the reality.
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yea .. but it is SOLD but VACANT right? dun belive high rise u sendiri tengok at nioght.. like maluri areas.. this has been address earlier despite the increase, holding back will make loss.. coz u are servicing the bank...

economic back bone.. correct.. u also aware that the government 3 measures:

1) removal of DIBS
2) increase of RPGT
3) 1 MILLION restriction to foreigner especially Singaporean

can you infer what the government want to do here? less transaction less revenue? less transaction.. less bank loan.. less stamp duties... less stamep duties on S &P. i think property is the backbone of a country (if is increased accordingly with growth) here property is been inflated some parties just want to blindly profit.. we are living on inflated placed that were not supposed to be...

and i think government know that is the backbone, it is also now a liability to government as we are at risk of bancrutpcy..

this is the truth.. the economy is BAD.. house are inflated... especially outskirt.. developers follows suit.. many flippers are between 28-40 are are low end flippers..
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(enkil @ Feb 1 2014, 11:47 AM)
Why not? As long as its healthy discussion with proper facts. Its only awareness and yes final decision in on individual.
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eh ya lor.. the final desicion rest on the potential property buyers /flippers.. dun follow suit to some forumers here.. they already made their profit 3-4 years ago, when property was not inflated badly... it left a bad taste in the mouth izzit? couple with the price hikes and economy u feel that this might be corect?

they themselves know it is a trouble market.. since we enter 2014, those last minutes buyers (especially outskirt) boarded the last and wrong train. thinking that they will make the same amount as their predecessor forumers who earn 200k easily on 1 property...
bearbearwong
post Feb 1 2014, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(macguyver @ Feb 1 2014, 11:52 AM)
Any facts that shows property price reduced or property bursting?

My fact is properties price are increased as of now.
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maybe u want notice hat most buildings newly completed are SOLD but VACANT? and another similarity.. flippers are trying to standardize the new housing price outskirt or not, they will be selling at 700k marks DSL.. high rise 500k.. dun believe ah.. as them ..



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