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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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bearbearwong
post Jan 25 2014, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 25 2014, 01:56 PM)
I SAY.. IN PROPERTY TRANSACTION RATIO, SUBSALE TRANSACTION ALWAYS HIGHER THAN PRIMARY.. THIS YEAE WE MIGHT SEE THE RATIO ON SUBSALE TRANSACTION COULD FURTHER INCREASE.. DONT SKEW MY WORDS ..  READ MORE NEWS PAPER, STATISTICS AND UPDATE URSELF.
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This can only happen if the subdale price are affordable mr agent... subsales in general are targeted at those new prop... those old prop price also not cheap right.. uwill not buy..

On reading no need you worry.. I can safely assume I read more and highly educated.. the last I check u say singaporean buyers are rich buying prop no problem.. dun fool ppl here agent... u just cant.. rich ppl dun bothet replying here ciz they busy counting cash..
bearbearwong
post Jan 25 2014, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 25 2014, 01:56 PM)
I SAY.. IN PROPERTY TRANSACTION RATIO, SUBSALE TRANSACTION ALWAYS HIGHER THAN PRIMARY.. THIS YEAE WE MIGHT SEE THE RATIO ON SUBSALE TRANSACTION COULD FURTHER INCREASE.. DONT SKEW MY WORDS ..  READ MORE NEWS PAPER, STATISTICS AND UPDATE URSELF.
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At the end u still on BBB mode right... trying to tell if you cant afford new prop go on for subsales.. come on lahh those subsales price are inflatef badly mr agent...
bearbearwong
post Jan 25 2014, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 25 2014, 02:47 PM)
Hihi wat is reasonable price in ur mind??
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This is a catchy question... if I say 750 or any other price rather than the developer s price u say I m plucking from the skies.. no justification... you will prove me wrong as u are sellig cheaper..

if I say developer price you say I am sour grape coz I dun get to buy 1 units of that project..

Crystal ball or no ball tell us phase 2 selling price.. my go for echo hill phase 1 subsales us minimum 650k.. those desoerate those not 750k..
bearbearwong
post Jan 25 2014, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 25 2014, 02:51 PM)
Because of DIBS + zero entry mah. Many of them are Gen Y in the 20s who, if without DIBS+zero entry, can never afford to buy.

These Gen Y with double household income can genuinely afford the monthly installment one. Some can even afford 2 properties. If without DIBS + zero entry, they can't even afford a single property. 15% deposit just killed the demand from these category of investor

So the demand in the previous 2-3 years are supported by these people. In 2014. the demand from these people are all wiped out
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Can afford provided zero credit card.. viva car loan.. of course can moderate life.. and see these ppl who enter the market with DIBs foundatiion created an artificial demand.. fake demand .. as many does not possess enough ability to buy..

worse is with these foundation they only plan to flip upon VP.. and never had a back up plan.. you agents money depended on sales commision..
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 25 2014, 07:16 PM)
yes...if you read my post...i say long term, can say 10 years...guarantee up...so if the price is RM750k now....sure can earn but i did not say sure RM1.75mil...

even conservative 6% earn, make it super simple, 10 years get 60%, so probably 1.2mil 10 years later...

but if the price is RM850k after 10 years, my statement also correct what... guarantee up !!!
but of course earn RM100k over 10 years not so worth la... 

agree or not that guarantee UP !
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850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ? Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL.. u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 12:23 AM
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 01:32 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 26 2014, 12:32 AM)
yes, i said price guarantee UP, so it's definitely UP UP UP.
BUT, if the price UP not so much, after your calculation example, then it is not worth it, but the price is still UP ...

that is the main point i'm trying to drill in... i've seen example of property price drop after the 97 crisis but eventually it will be UP and more than the purchase price and it's uptrend if consider today's price...

come on...you have to agree with me on this, the price will definitely go up in the long run... 10 years time frame...
smile.gif
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What is ur point making a general statement.. dat property price will go up forever despite calculation prove otherwise.. oh gosh.. not necessary price can crash just like usa and dubai.. singapore.. bukit beruntung.. kota warisan.. coming kip sentral sepang ..

righy crash then wont up.. are u a newbie agent... after seeing these figures ppl who invested in place not supposed to pray hard.. those flippers wanbabe.. u choice..

this is a failed investment izzit.. risk is just too high myfriend even flipping and profiiting 200k and hold gor 10 years..

those in both megatownship investors.. see for yoursrlf possibility of holding longer and hardcore home owners.. thete is high posdibility investment burn..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 02:16 AM
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(661188 @ Jan 26 2014, 06:27 AM)
double every 10yr is normal. the same mee goreng that you pay rm5 now will cost you rm10 in 10yr and become rm20 in 20yr.

when i went standard1 the curry mee in school canteen only sell 10cent.
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Wow mee goreng wor... good example.. last 30 years cheap.. 20 cents now rm4.00.. good ahh..

last time 30 years ago.. nissan sunny worth rm30k.. last time ringgit higher.. last time honda city cost 100k... look at their features compared them now...
wat the heck.. in today world same 30k getting a new saga ... viva.. look at their features now.. the same 100k.. now elantra.. inspira.. polo sedan..

we all know that money drpreciate.. but not till this level.. using a mee goreng example is not accurate

even ur theory is good... in 10 years only1.5 m DSL outskirt.. u wany buy or not... or better in 30 years time DSL 3.3 M.. u buying mou... the price even may shoot upto to those price coz agent flippers inflated but which sohai going to buy.... PJ DSL old DSL got shoot up to this? Btw how mamy transacted...
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 11:00 AM

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[quote=Showtime747,Jan 26 2014, 06:10 AM]
Loophole ? Banks still need to vet through all loan applications. It is not like the USA sub-prime where the approval hurdle is much lower (hence termed as sub-prime). BNM has strict ruling like DSR, LTV 70%, Net income etc. In CCRIS, even loan applications in progress will be highlighted. So it is very difficult to fool the banks with multiple application at the same time. Banks know every loans you already have and also in progress of application.

With DIBS + zero entry previously, it doesn't mean flippers can buy as many as they like without applying for loans. They still have to get the loans approved. So, the banks vetting process will still have to be passed through in order to buy a property.

Unless there is any other specific loophole for unqualified borrower which you can highlight ?
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comr on lor... this is bolehland.. not sing land lehh.. our bank very strict... MBSB loan u got check how strict? Do you know how many write off case...


bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 26 2014, 06:39 AM)
Boss think of the brighter side. Rental income is not mentioned in ur assumption le.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Oh.. ya hor.. rentall DSL outskirt... hmm good.. how much? I dunno about you high rise like connought avenue..amanya ( confirm koyak case dude say rental he dun care much).. coming Lido residency.. pertama residency..TTDi groove kajang.. palm walk 3.. jade hills... kajang2... taman tasik semenyih.. the adjacent megatownship( new phase launcing after CNY) and many more lazy to list again.. so already completed but vacany dat means time ticking liao.. longet you hold.. bleeding ohh.. if sell within 5 years still ADA RPGT... looks like empty sure bleeding..

come on dun be negative.. prop price has reach a height dat it was not supposed to be.. look in mature areas like leisure mall areas... our maluri cheras.. pandan indah.. sentul (plaza pekeliling and plaza permata).. pj.. numbers of old shopping malls reopen rebran like ss2 mall.. cherad central.. viva.. southgate.. 1 shamelin.. mines 2... the spark... coming flexis one... and etc u name it vacant office .. houses.. high rises..even unitshop downstairs is occupied.. upstairs..rent to foreigner cheappp.. not in full yeild despite mature..

These case so malaysian has never depart from location location location and affordability issue... so how much ur rental going to cover.. if there.. you sure u want to take d risk.. section 1..2..3 and etc mahkota cheras DSL going 1.4k .. but different citizenship oh long term invrstment or FLIP UPON VP?
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 08:16 AM)
Older generation, in general, are more experienced and risk adverse, they know what they want to suit their risk portfolio. Less emotional when making investment decision, less relying on hear say but invest with wisdom.
I can't say it for all, but at least my investment kaki around my age.
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Yea this is meant for those who is young and targeted to buy your flipped property..
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 08:29 AM)
He doesn't factor in the current value and future value of money. In long term investment, one must factor in the time value of money (discounted cash flow method) to analyze investment as a dollar today is not the same value after 10 years. U need to discount back your loan amount after 10 years into today's value to analyze it.

Assuming the average mortgage loan interest is 5% pa for the next 10 years (Currently 4.2% with blr-2.4%), u r better off with the borrowing if the yearly inflation rate is > borrowing rate.

In the long term, those who keep FD in the bank will loose out for those who invest with better return.  We need to at least beat the inflation rate.
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Very easy.. u agent maa.. tell the potential buyers my version.. the tell ur version dat my version is wrong and include rental in see got ppl buy your 750k DSL for investment mou...
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 07:28 AM)
Tis is true. Agree
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Dat meNs those say holding long term after VP is a myth.. coz sure lose money.. meaning many here is going to flip upon VP.. dat the best way to make money.. if you hold ur credit stuck for 10 years.. how many projects will they miss.. no one can know one day state gov sacrifice the cheras forest reserve for development..
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 26 2014, 11:32 AM)
Cny soon. Why so doomed???
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Gong xi fa cai to all hope for a better year
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 26 2014, 09:34 AM)
Walau, buying property has to think so much... if this skill is compulsory for property investment to sucess then those less educated anke/anti will hv prob loh... but yet they r silent majority who making fortune by just buy and keep ..    tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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In these kind of climate/ sentimens( government measures) buying new prop launcheas runs the risk of holding for prop in vacant mode eithout rental for d next 5 years.. for subsales for own stay.. still can wait longer price sure up.. for invesment on flipp prop.. better check d locatiin and affordability... sin good developers also produce lapsap project like iskandar.. all vacant klang valley got 2 megatownship.. look at their coming supplies
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 12:25 PM)
Investors of each generation have their own set of calculator. Like others have shared, the baby boomers like uncle aunties' strategy are buy and never sell. Know few uncles accumulate palm oil lands for the last 30 years, and they will never sell. These uncles never study bubbles bursting, stocks candle lights report, inflation and unemployment statistics. But they are doing good!!

Another uncle of mine only buy shoplots and rented to banks, telcos and insurance companies. These are prompt paymasters. Use the tenancy agreements income prove to rolled over and buy more shoplots units.
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In this climate.. u suggest to invest on any new launches? Attitude is new launch grab first talk and think later.. I dun think it is applicable anymore...

The many of ur uncle kind is very less in the market.. which reminds me of agents who like to tell half truth of the statement like MLM.. lets take AMWAY..
Lapsap will say look at our this guy.. he is our top sell.. no need work liao.. 300k income.. per month.. they fail to say that THERE IS ONLY 1 SPOT.. and those WHO FAIL AND DIE IN VAIN..

just like if I tell you you need 30 mimutes and 45 minutes leisure drive to KL.. so near.. then the balloting.. all hired and make it looks like GOT MONEY OSO CANT BUY... failed to take into acvount that IT TOOK 2 HOURS AT LEAST on peak hour traffic.. there u go again many just went on registration time already buy... developer laugh till die.. based on these prop bought.. u want to target with ur inflated price.. on the dudes of lower or worse bargining power than you..

quoting ur uncle example just telling ppl the partial truth..

just like forumers here... they choose only reply what istelling price up.. the should reply point keep diam diam.. then ask ppl to study more.. reasearch more..all all are agents flippers here with low holding power..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 12:51 PM
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 26 2014, 11:56 AM)
Boss isn't tat the correct way to calculate??? I dun wanna let those marney sacking analysts to decide direction of my investment. I still use the evergreen but obsolete way. Cocr, interest, rental, tax. Simple and nice. But I'm not sure wat r they looking for. Maybe the palace with rumah papan price. brows.gif
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Or maybe some affordable housing.. ur hardcore DDD BBB wont stop .. ss2 there big new development go.. buy..
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 26 2014, 12:10 PM)
Study and research can be gain through experience..have you apply loan nowadays and tell me which stupid banker not check your credit history in CCRIS before approve your loan. doh.gif
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That is d front door or back door... back door many case the loan officer let you go just like dat?? Bolehland wor...

each bank has own policy.. bigget banks stringent.. those smaller banks.. less lor have to survive.. bad CCRIS but if you agree to pay intetest rates higher than mai can lorr.. some bank previously offer 45 years..
Bank also know bout inflation.. dont loan out they will lose out

Since when malaysian are that stringent .. u mean in a way like all getting A's in UPSR SPM every year naik??
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 26 2014, 12:56 PM)
Has anybody thought why banks, telcos and insurance companies never bought shoplots themselves, if property is such a fantastic investment ? I guess whether they either thought property is a lousy investment or they can get better return with their money.
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Coz agents and flippers are smarter... coz bank will move I guess.. or they calculated that is a loss
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 26 2014, 02:00 PM)
he is complementing on ur -ve partial truth story to provide balance on it. So, furumers here can hv better picture of both +ve and -ve stories, and more choise of property to invest.. biggrin.gif
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+1
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 04:56 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 03:24 PM)
1. I knew of a banker told me that this can be done. Once loan approve, you can do reconversion to another property subjected to the new property valuation is ok.

2. I knew of bankers did help investors/flippers do the above.

3. A lot banker/mortgage sales people will do their best even to "clean & spruce" up their customer documentations to get the loan approval.

4. I knew few investors/flippers who use fake income documentation to get the loan approve.

Based on what I knew above, I knew it's a matter of time before things will get ugly. It shall be sooner than much later. We just have to wait a see lar. No point arguing who is right or who is wrong. Everyone shall just know the consequences if things move either way. If prices continues to go up, then congratulation to the flippers. If price came comes down, I would love to congratulate all the bankrupt flippers as well. That's my take.

Anyway no one will foresee the future so any decision is very personal. Also what I know is, if buyers cannot afford to buy from developer, then they are worst off buying in secondary market. Bank valuation is not on par with the asking price, the transfer duty which is expensive, legal fees as well and others.
Based on my own analysis, I assume the following scenario:-

A person regardless of age, which is still single and working in the city and have a monthly income of RM 5000. Below is my assumptions:-

Calculation of gross income:-
Average Gross Income: RM 5000/month
Nett Income: 5000 - 550 (EPF) - 191.70 (PCB Tax) - 14.75 (SOCSO) = 4243.55

Calculation of car installment:-
Car is essential for city living, so I assume any working person will own a car. For simplicity let's assume Myvi Standard Auto which cost retail price of RM 44,924.30.

Loan Tenure: 9 years
Downpayment: 10%
Interest: 2.8%
Monthly Installment: RM 469

Calculation of Available Margin for Home Loan:-
Debt Service Ratio of 70% of Nett Income: 4243.55 x 70% = 2970.485
Balance Available for House Loan: 2970.485 - 469 (Car Installment) = RM 2501.485

Therefore assuming the following for home loan:-
Loan Tenure: 35 years
Interest: 4.6% (BLR-2%)
Downpayment: 10%
Monthly Installment: RM 2500 (Round to full figure from 2501.485)

Based on the monthly installment of RM 2500, the maximum loan amount is RM 521,411; therefore this individual can only afford to buy a property that cost a maximum of RM 579,345.56

So to conclude:-
Monthly Nett Salary: 4243.55
Car Installment: 469
House Installment: 2500
Balance of Salary after commitment: RM 1274.55 for everything else (Car insurance, medical insurance, petrol, toll, food, contigencies, and etc)
Another problem is Property Valuation is not on par on what is the asking price of properties. I personally knew of a property that has an asking price of RM 450,000 but the bank only valuated that particular property at RM 380,000. So for buyer to buy that property:

90% Loan of the Valuation price: 380,000 x 90% = RM 342,000
Therefore the buyer has to fork up 450000-342000(Loan Amount) = RM 108,000 (Downpayment amount)
Other fees (Based on 450,000 S&P price):-
S&P Legal Fees: 3600
S&P Stamp Duty: 8000
Loan Agreement Stamp Duty: 2250
Loan Agreement Legal Fees: 3600

So total cash upfront to buy that property would be RM 125,450. For just RM 450k property, the buyer has to fork out 125k cash; if this person can pay 125k, he/she will be able to buy RM 646,861 (521,411 Loan Amount + 125,450 Cash) from developer directly. If he can't buy from developer at this price, then he definately won't be able to buy a 450k subsale property.

So with all new property above 750,000 now, the person has to have atleast a minimum of RM 8000/month which I doubt many average Malaysian can earn that amount.
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Thank you very detail elobration.. planning to do this but thank you.. agent and investors know THIS LONG TIME.. but they just dun care..

affordability never dies as long as the market is targeting them previously working low middle vlass now uppet middle classs... I tink in bank.. manager level only get how much 6k.. lawyer of 6 years pracyice with very good skill only maybe can get 8 k.. these agent will humiliate u.. say so many ppl eatn more money.. just u cant afford ( part of the commission contribiuted by us)

God bless we are not the lone ranger after all

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