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 USA Stock Discussion v5, Investment,Trader,Financial Ratios,HUAT?

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danmooncake
post Feb 20 2014, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(AirJump09 @ Feb 20 2014, 10:02 PM)
at what price will you buy...hehe
or you wouldn't
*
If I am Zuckerberg, I not sure I would want to buy if FB already has something similar. But, he maybe seeing something that we mortals could not.

$19bln is a lot of premium to pay.. but luckily majority of them are just stocks exchanges.

If things didn't pan out (regulatory wise - they still have to convince DOJ this isn't a monopoly tactic), WhatApps still get a $1bln in cash. Still a win-win deal for Whatapps.





mikehwy
post Feb 20 2014, 10:31 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 20 2014, 10:26 PM)
If I am Zuckerberg, I not sure I would want to buy if FB already has something similar. But, he maybe seeing something that we mortals could not.

$19bln is a lot of premium to pay.. but luckily majority of them are just stocks exchanges.

If things didn't pan out (regulatory wise - they still have to convince DOJ this isn't a monopoly tactic), WhatApps still get a $1bln in cash. Still a win-win deal for Whatapps.
*
maybe its zuckerberg young age who seeks market awareness and greater transparency at the start. and hopefully there is tech and marketing synergy? a case of market penetration follows by market development?
i think so only la

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Feb 20 2014, 10:33 PM
Firetric
post Feb 20 2014, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 20 2014, 10:26 PM)
If I am Zuckerberg, I not sure I would want to buy if FB already has something similar. But, he maybe seeing something that we mortals could not.

$19bln is a lot of premium to pay.. but luckily majority of them are just stocks exchanges.

If things didn't pan out (regulatory wise - they still have to convince DOJ this isn't a monopoly tactic), WhatApps still get a $1bln in cash. Still a win-win deal for Whatapps.
*
QUOTE(mikehwy @ Feb 20 2014, 10:31 PM)
maybe its zuckerberg young age who seeks market awareness and greater transparency at the start. and hopefully there is tech and marketing synergy?  a case of market penetration follows by market development?
i think so only la
*
Hope this acquisition will be a big correction...hehe
danmooncake
post Feb 21 2014, 12:34 AM

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QUOTE(Firetric @ Feb 20 2014, 10:45 PM)
Hope this acquisition will be a big correction...hehe
*
Correction is ok.. but hopefully, it won't change the trend. Got my tight stop in at 65. tongue.gif
yok70
post Feb 21 2014, 01:01 AM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Feb 20 2014, 09:05 PM)
I think the earlier members get free for life, as long as they don't change phone number, right?
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i don't know about this. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Feb 21 2014, 01:06 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 20 2014, 10:00 PM)
But, doesn't FB itself also have this capability (chat/photos sharing)?

Wonder why they willing to pay such a high premium for it?  hmm.gif
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FB has fear of losing users, Whatsapp is a fierce enemy. The best way to fight this is to make the enemy my friend. 19b is nothing if comparing to losing users. They must have plan for some kind of integration, so that FB will be alive. Whatsapp may become just an app from FB, or just a function, a chatting function. By doing this, all Whatsapp users based will become FB's. Take a look at Nokia today. Once you loss market attention, you are dead and very very hard to recover. In another 1 year time, Whatsapp active users number estimation will be equal to FB's, that scares the hell of Z. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Feb 21 2014, 01:17 AM

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green day? what?? where is the bear? interest hike woh! still green?? rclxub.gif
crazy market, never time it. tongue.gif
Mercy Shadows
post Feb 21 2014, 01:45 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 21 2014, 01:06 AM)
FB has fear of losing users, Whatsapp is a fierce enemy. The best way to fight this is to make the enemy my friend. 19b is nothing if comparing to losing users. They must have plan for some kind of integration, so that FB will be alive. Whatsapp may become just an app from FB, or just a function, a chatting function. By doing this, all Whatsapp users based will become FB's. Take a look at Nokia today. Once you loss market attention, you are dead and very very hard to recover. In another 1 year time, Whatsapp active users number estimation will be equal to FB's, that scares the hell of Z.  biggrin.gif
*
I think what will get most investors worried is how WhatsApp is able to make back that money.

For what I understand Whatsapp charge 0.99 cents on their per pay service,
which current 300million users only they might make 300million dollars, but 19billion?
There is no adds or anything like that in whatsapp from what I understand.
They might develop it further since Mark Zuckerberg fail to purchase SnapChat

What I hear from bloomberg this afternoon is that Only 2% of americans uses Whatsapp, most of them just prefer to use text messages. But in Europe, South East Asia, users are up to about 80++%

China on the other hand has a very low user rate as well due to WeChat , and Korean they have their own Chat App as well.

So based on the 2% of Americans and with FB's publicity on Whatsapp, there is a very high chance it can grow.
danmooncake
post Feb 21 2014, 01:56 AM

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QUOTE(Mercy Shadows @ Feb 21 2014, 01:45 AM)
I think what will get most investors worried is how WhatsApp is able to make back that money.

For what I understand Whatsapp charge 0.99 cents on their per pay service,
which current 300million users only they might make 300million dollars, but 19billion?
There is no adds or anything like that in whatsapp from what I understand.
They might develop it further since Mark Zuckerberg fail to purchase SnapChat

What I hear from bloomberg this afternoon is that Only 2% of americans uses Whatsapp, most of them just prefer to use text messages. But in Europe, South East Asia, users are up to about 80++%

China on the other hand has a very low user rate as well due to WeChat , and Korean they have their own Chat App as well.

So based on the 2% of Americans and with FB's publicity on Whatsapp, there is a very high chance it can grow.
*
Only 2% meh? So, how can there be a high chance of them using what'app if they like sms,text, etc.?

Anyway, difficult to understand FB stand on this but the price action will determine whether FB makes the correct
decision or not. Keeping stops in place.. sweat.gif
Mercy Shadows
post Feb 21 2014, 02:05 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 21 2014, 01:56 AM)
Only 2% meh? So, how can there be a high chance of them using what'app if they like sms,text, etc.?

Anyway, difficult to understand FB stand on this but the price action will determine whether FB makes the correct
decision or not.  Keeping stops in place..  sweat.gif
*
If I remember correctly, its a very low percentage...
Did some google search and.. The link here says 9%...
http://engineeringfukrey.com/how-does-whatsapp-earn-money/

Most Europe and Latin Americas are above 90%
I think countries like Malaysia, Singapore too uses them, but not in the list .. too kuuchi

Well, maybe Whatsapp is not properly promoted in USA

Edit
Oh yeah. they said USA uses blackberry messenger, but it went south with Blackberry formally RIM

This post has been edited by Mercy Shadows: Feb 21 2014, 02:07 AM
danmooncake
post Feb 21 2014, 02:43 AM

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QUOTE(Mercy Shadows @ Feb 21 2014, 02:05 AM)
If I remember correctly, its a very low percentage...
Did some google search and.. The link here says 9%...
http://engineeringfukrey.com/how-does-whatsapp-earn-money/

Most Europe and Latin Americas are above 90%
I think countries like Malaysia, Singapore too uses them, but not in the list .. too kuuchi

Well, maybe Whatsapp is not properly promoted in USA

Edit
Oh yeah. they said USA uses blackberry messenger, but it went south with Blackberry formally RIM
*
Well, they said whatapps got 400mln users worldwide.
But, how many actually pays for what'sapp (99c)?

Cheapskate users try it free for one year. After that, they may not just not use it or uninstall it.

Also, this is a onetime Payment. There is no recurring revenue here. hmm.gif

Oh well, I dunno how they going to make back $19bln here.




yok70
post Feb 21 2014, 02:48 AM

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QUOTE(Mercy Shadows @ Feb 21 2014, 01:45 AM)
I think what will get most investors worried is how WhatsApp is able to make back that money.

For what I understand Whatsapp charge 0.99 cents on their per pay service,
which current 300million users only they might make 300million dollars, but 19billion?
There is no adds or anything like that in whatsapp from what I understand.
They might develop it further since Mark Zuckerberg fail to purchase SnapChat

What I hear from bloomberg this afternoon is that Only 2% of americans uses Whatsapp, most of them just prefer to use text messages. But in Europe, South East Asia, users are up to about 80++%

China on the other hand has a very low user rate as well due to WeChat , and Korean they have their own Chat App as well.

So based on the 2% of Americans and with FB's publicity on Whatsapp, there is a very high chance it can grow.
*
The valuation is 1 year ahead. At current growth rate of above 1m new uers a day, their estimation is reaching 1b active users in 12 months time. So the income is 1b, and so the PE is 19x.

For me, I won't see it as expensive, really, even if it couldn't give back any profit. Now there is profit, that's a bonus actually. The buying is most benefit from users base protection (if not increment). The highest value on any social network platform is user base, only that can give advertising/trading etc. value to the company.

However, as I said before, I still couldn't understand FB's business model and find this business very high risk since any day when a new cool platform emerge, people will just dump you and switch over to that one because they have nothing to lose and it's easy to switch system since the learning curve is very small, unlike smartphone (many loyal android/iphone users prefer to keep to the same system when they upgrade their phone). So FB is only good for traders, not good for investors (cannot sleep at night). laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 21 2014, 02:53 AM
danmooncake
post Feb 21 2014, 03:25 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 21 2014, 02:48 AM)
The valuation is 1 year ahead. At current growth rate of above 1m new uers a day, their estimation is reaching 1b active users in 12 months time. So the income is 1b, and so the PE is 19x.

For me, I won't see it as expensive, really, even if it couldn't give back any profit. Now there is profit, that's a bonus actually. The buying is most benefit from users base protection (if not increment). The highest value on any social network platform is user base, only that can give advertising/trading etc. value to the company.

However, as I said before, I still couldn't understand FB's business model and find this business very high risk since any day when a new cool platform emerge, people will just dump you and switch over to that one because they have nothing to lose and it's easy to switch system since the learning curve is very small, unlike smartphone (many loyal android/iphone users prefer to keep to the same system when they upgrade their phone). So FB is only good for traders, not good for investors (cannot sleep at night).  laugh.gif
*
Good points.. FB, LNKD, TWTR, GRPN, all the new momo social media fad for these past two years.
Everyone happy when it goes up and valuation can go to moon. laugh.gif

Anyone seen TSLA today? They handily beat earnings. Another notch up. thumbup.gif

If it gets to $300, I get a real Tesla. brows.gif






yok70
post Feb 21 2014, 03:45 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 21 2014, 03:25 AM)
Anyone seen TSLA today? They handily beat earnings.  Another notch up.  thumbup.gif

If it gets to $300, I get a real Tesla.  brows.gif
*
wow! nice trade there! since rumors on Apple merging Tesla, I started watching it a little, this unpredictable new boy in town. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Feb 21 2014, 03:51 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 21 2014, 03:45 AM)
wow! nice trade there! since rumors on Apple merging Tesla, I started watching it a little, this unpredictable new boy in town.  biggrin.gif
*
I think the funds (who's long on TSLA) somehow re-surface this old piece of news (AAPL and TSLA talks).
They don't want TSLA to fall down.

There was a real big bet that TSLA will miss its earnings and will drop 100 pts or so. But now, they got no choice
but to cover it.

I will slowly move up my stop regardless on whether it will get there or not.
morning06
post Feb 21 2014, 04:27 AM

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danmooncake yok70

Dun mind me asking, been curious for quite some time. You guys are full time traders staying in Msia?

This post has been edited by morning06: Feb 21 2014, 04:29 AM
danmooncake
post Feb 21 2014, 06:56 AM

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QUOTE(morning06 @ Feb 21 2014, 04:27 AM)
danmooncake yok70

Dun mind me asking, been curious for quite some time. You guys are full time traders staying in Msia?
*
Not me. laugh.gif
jerrychoo2004
post Feb 21 2014, 08:52 AM

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yeah i have been monitoring TSLA since few months back.....was really hoping for it to miss its earnings so that i can buy on the dip today......but the results is encouraging.....miss the boat......so Dan you are long in TSLA? i was thinking of joining this boat as i have some $$ to spare since i dumped my FB >.<
morning06
post Feb 21 2014, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 21 2014, 06:56 AM)
Not me.  laugh.gif
*
i see. so you have a 9-5 job and trade at night? Sorry to ask so much, but just curious wink.gif hope you dun mind.
yok70
post Feb 21 2014, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(morning06 @ Feb 21 2014, 04:27 AM)
danmooncake yok70

Dun mind me asking, been curious for quite some time. You guys are full time traders staying in Msia?
*
i freelance. so, time is very flexi. icon_rolleyes.gif

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