The bad news is just starting...this is merely as taste of it. QE tapering is scheduled to only start in September. Bond yield prices is still below historical normal, not even touching high yet.

Several ASEAN countries like Thailand has already officially entered recession, others has been busy slashing growth rate. Most asean countries have high debt to gdp (malaysia), low or negative current account (india & indonesia) & low freign reserves, which leaves them open to currency depreciation. As their currency gets destroyed, the next thing coming will be inflation and then later interest rate adjustment, which will be the final death knell for equity, bonds and property. The more good news in the developed world the more money will be pulled out of emerging markets back to developed world.

The ASEAN market has partied too long on cheap credit and getting drunk on it...

While IMHO it will not be remotely as bad as 1997, however the trade imbalance will cause a severe downturn. It's all up to uncle sam now and the FED tapering if they want to destroy the ASEAN economy they can do so easily.

Only about 2%-3% of foreign funds has been pulled out from those invested from 2008-2013. There are more pullout to come, and can you imagine what will happen?

This is not just a blip, but in for the long haul..strap on your seat belt for a roller coaster ride.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 23 2013, 06:43 PM

This is incorrect. From Thailand, 65 % of all cheap money invested from 2008-2013 has flown back already, as per revealed today by Bank of Thailand official, and they've said that even if all of the remaining 35 % was to fly back which is higly unlikely, the market will only drop around 150 more points or so, i.e. 10-15 % . So in worst case scenario, we can expect a further 10-15 % fall in thai market. I don't have the right figures for other markets in Asean but the similar way the markets have fallen in Indonesia and other Asean countries and the average rate of currencies fell in last 3 months, I strongly believe that more than half of the cheap money from 2008-2013 has flown back already from elsewhere as well.

Are you sure they are quoting you the right figures (or only the figures they want to reveal)? Malaysia itself 40% of the national debt (bonds) is held by foreigners, 24% of stock market is held by foreigners. National debt market is way way much bigger than the equity market, not counting all the various properties and other investments. Dont look only in one section, as when the shit hits the fans, everything takes flight.

Just to put into perspective, how much did the country bond yield compress from 2008 to 2013 and what is the current yield? Malaysia was about 4.5%-5.0% for 10Y note. Long term average is 4.5%. Due to foreigner buying the yield was compressed until 3.0% recently, at last level it is still at 3.7%, still below the mean. This means the yield still have more room to expand.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 23 2013, 07:06 PM

Unclear message from Federal Reserve:

Fed Burned Once Over Taper Now Twice Shy on QE3

URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-23/f...qe3-change.html

AmAPAC reits was the highest % in my portfolio. i sold off 50% of it ytday at -9%. fearing the worst to come..

So, panic sell?

not really panic.. the remaining 50% still very significant % in my portfolio.. but i dont see much movement from reits in the coming months, might as well put into other funds..

Anybody reducing their exposure in terms of percentage in their bonds?

I switched 17% of my portfolio to China and HSAO from my HSIncome 2 weeks ago
now are thinking of switching 10% of my portfolio to US from my HSBal...

This post has been edited by yklooi: Aug 24 2013, 12:47 AM

Sadly I can't as I'm holding only AmDynamic. Only did a quite significant rebalancing for the past 2 months though.

Switched all to what fund?

What is your AmDynamic percentage in your portfolio?

Unker gark, u made me feel wanna sell all UTs and go buy a wife hide under pillow

It is just the reality of whats happening... it might be just a small bump or massive bloodshed, it is too early to tell. But the market is still not really panicking yet.

Stay the course and buy on good valuation, but pace yourself so you don't run out of ammo. As an investor, you must stay the course, never get greedy and never give in to panic. I have not sold a single UT, but I am buying slowly...

Heart must be steady...



This post has been edited by gark: Aug 24 2013, 09:41 AM

Still worry/no worry of Malaysia Mkt??
In Malaysia, the key risk to capital flows, argues Credit Suisse, emanates from the large foreigners’ holding of bonds (47%) and bills (84%), which are much higher than that for Thailand (18% for bonds and 6% for bills).
....... have deteriorating current account balance and/or fiscal position, will also be vulnerable. Malaysia and Thailand, hence, fall into this category.
“Investors are driven by herd instinct. When they see deteriorating current account balance, for instance, they will exit without giving it much thought,” he explains.
According to CIMB, Asia is expected to suffer from more widespread capital withdrawal, which will take regional currencies and equity markets lower, in the coming months. There will be further rise in financial-market volatility, the regional investment bank warns
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...l-outflows.aspx

For those who withdraw from EPF to invest into unit trust. Remember you will only be able to use the money after 55 y/o which for majority of us that would be in 10 or 15 years time.

My guesstimate at a conservative 10% p.a. ROI for KLCI, 10 years later, when KLCI hit 5,000 pts, your decision to whether enter at 1700 pts or 1800 points, it becomes immaterial.

Stay the course, dollar cost average to reduce your risk. Stay invested.

Xuzen

Yup... Agreed. Time is gold.... In the long run... Worst case is let the profits fighting the volatility.

60%

Yes... already been trying my best to avoid temptation & fear when investing especially during the past few months after GE13 ...

DCA might not really be the best strategy, but i found it to suit me just right when investing in the long run...

This post has been edited by kabal82: Aug 24 2013, 03:33 PM

That is a solid piece of advice. ! BTW, I am pacing myself to be fully invested in 6 months time i.e. by March 2014. Don't know is it too early to run out of ammo by then? What do you suggest?

This post has been edited by s_kates81: Aug 24 2013, 04:37 PM