I know one of my colleagues smoke 3 packs (20 ciggies per pack) a day.. even at night wake up smoke then go back to bed, when eating chew while puffing cigarette in mouth.

I ask him go take lung x-ray he say don't want.

Ciggy business sure ho seh... with these people around

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 14 2013, 04:59 PM

Steady.. steady...

Aih did not see that...


IF you are looking at very long term, which is >10 years...

I would say both Buy and Hold and Equity Fund will typically generate IRR of 8%-10% on AVERAGE. This has been proven in a lot of studies (provided you do not buy lump sum at peak). Buy and hold have advantage of 1.5% of management fees excluded, so a little bit of extra advantage gains.

In the long run (when I say long run means long run ah...means you buy even though stock crash and don't sell out ah) the above will likely beat both a bond and balanced fund.

Look at it this way...historically...(average of >50 years)

Equity - Capital Gain - IRR 8-12% (over long term)
Dividend Stocks - Dividend Gain - IRR 5-8%
Bond Fund & FD - Interest Gain - IRR 3-6%

But you cannot just chase gain, you must have some stability in which bond and FD will give you a peace of mind. So you cannot allocate 100% to equity. If you can take a 50% drop within 1 year (average drop in most downturn), then by all means go for 100% equity, if not then add bond accordingly until you feel comfortable. Buy and hold only IF the fundamentals remains intact!

But that being said, buying equity is much more difficult, hence more mistakes will be made. Buying at the wrong time will spell doom, so buy often and buy at dips, and most important buy with fundamentals. Never ever show hand in investment.... no matter how confident you think, black swan event can happen. You can minimize buy and hold risk and volatility by no holding more than 10% of each counter.

As a portfolio, you should take blended IRR of all components, no point separating each one as each item in your portfolio has a duty to perform, some are warriors (equity) and some are defenders (bond). Sometimes you need to keep some reserve warriors/defenders (cash) in case of breakthrough by the enemy. An imbalance depending on wrong strategy can be bloody, actually Sun Tzu can be applicable to investment.....

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 14 2013, 07:46 PM

Why buy REIT fund when it is so easy to buy REITs directly?

REITs is all about yield, diversifying the yield would not have much protection as they are the same class. One sneeze all drop. You can get similar exposure if you buy MY/SG REIT.

AND don't forget they have 1.5%-2.0% management fee.. essentially your DY will drop from ~5% to ~3%. That's a big fat total of 40% of your dividend...

Is it worth it?

IMHO UT is more suited for capital gain rather than DY as illustrated above. Bond fund however makes sense because usually the minimum purchase of individual bond is min 100k-1mil, so a bond fund helps small investor entering the asset class. No such case for REIT as you can buy $1000 of REIT easily.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 15 2013, 02:57 PM

You can buy SG REIT..SGD 1000 is more than enough...via malaysian broker AND tax free!

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 15 2013, 03:01 PM

If you buy REIT directly... you will have 30-40% capital gain as well during the last yield compression...AND get all of your dividend.

MY UT portfolio is currently at all time high... the china UT bought about 1+ month ago really gave it a vroom factor.

I have a feeling we are going over the top of the roller coaster.....

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 15 2013, 03:13 PM

Bond tips ah?

Buy Bond UT with majority in commercial AAA Rated bonds, with less than 3 years to maturity. Will be more or less immune to interest rate hike.

Avoid sovereign bonds. Avoid long term bonds. Avoid emerging bonds. Avoid high yield junk bonds.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 15 2013, 04:47 PM

More or less there... about 3.5%-4% yield.. want safe have to give up some yield for now...

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 15 2013, 05:01 PM

No leh.. Ambond is average ~5 years to maturity. So it is a medium term bond, higher yield but slightly higher risk.

Curiously it holding about 6.6% MGS maturing in 2027...

It states the bond fund will not exceed +/- 1 year from Benchmark.

The benchmark is RAM quant shop Medium Duration MGS Bond Index which has a maturity of 3-7 years.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 15 2013, 06:45 PM

Still drop hantam 800.. then 1600.. then 3600 an so on...

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 16 2013, 09:46 AM

That is just my style of investing.. not DCA/VCA.. as I don't believe in averaging. I increase my holdings for every major drop if the fundamentals are right.

Like WMK says.. i just like to shoot fish in barrel. But it is not for the faint hearted.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 16 2013, 10:35 AM

Better dont follow, my risk tolerance and yours is not the same. My bullets and yours also not same simply follow but cannot execute will end up you go holland. i can take temporary loss of 5 figures or more, can you?

Here i merelygive my views, not advisory. anyway i see more weakness coming, the interest rate is currently a house of cards.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 16 2013, 09:41 PM

Keep... keep long long.

Yesterday US10y bond yield jumped to 2.85% already, this years high.

Psst.. George Soros is not convinced.. he sold off most of his S&P index shares and is holding almost 7 million S&P500 puts (~1 billion USD) in his latest SEC filing...

In other words he is shorting the US market... and betting a billion dollars on it... So who is correct? Analyst who just 'talk' or an experienced investor putting his money on the line?

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 19 2013, 12:05 PM

About 30+% of his portfolio leh.... that's a huge sum even for him.

We see in the coming months whether his bet made him richer or poorer.. most probably he will have a cut loss if that happens.

This post has been edited by gark: Aug 19 2013, 01:31 PM

That one not shark leh.. already graduate to whale status...

Anyway.. sorry not 30+%.. about 13% only.

Fear cycle is back... as predicted last week.

Hang on to your seats and get your ammo ready... but not yet.. not yet.

China is going back to below 2k, Wont touch ASEAN for now but GEM looks good...

Okie okie... now monitoring only.. see if got any good stuff on sale.

But if go holland don't scold me ah...

Donno wor... closed already meh.. so fast.

Alternative can buy Aberdeen GEM... quite a good fund as well...