Ranhill Energy and Resources Bhd IPO cancelled

Ranhill Energy and Resources Bhd’s initial public offer has been cancelled, it was learnt on Friday.

The money collected from the successful applicants would be returned to the investors.

finally, below IPO price. more to come? I wish to see 15% downwards.

Stop it before IPO, nice work this time, SC.

Maybe someone "very influential" complain to SC thus canceling the IPO

lets hope it's not. lets hope our dear SC is truly improving.

So, I was right at first, but the div yield is like

Dividend yield is 3.3%... not much difference form Nestle Malaysia's dividend.

So did you buy 2266?

Apa stock code itu?

That property stock you ask me to see the other day.
Last close 190.

No did not buy leh...

Anyway, I spend last 10 minutes reading...

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/0...by-mr-koon.html
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/0...jaya-tiasa.html

I don't agree with how Dali is handing the comments.
Although not expert on palm oil fundamentals, I believe Dali should handle comments more openly.
Negative comments/criticism should be openly accepted.

I also think and agree with this set of comments by this lmenwe:



From chartwise, Jtiasa looks actually ok.



It does looks like it's recovering from its recent downtrend and it's in the midst of developing a new trend...

Comments? Masta Gark?

Apa la!

Looking ok... means you can consider buying mah.

I thought you would have bought at 183 liao.

Chart I no expert to comment.. that one i leave it to you.

Fundamentals ...

Last few quarters JTiasa is not doing very well, revenue is about the same, profit is almost none in Q3. Margins has fallen to 2.2%. Overall the CURRENT profit picture is not good. But overall profit for FY13 is pretty bad at 2-2.5 cents per share.

But for the future trend in which KKY is arguing on lets see...

Jtiasa's Bussiness is 35% plywood, 37% logs and 12% CPO

Average CPO selling price in FY12 is 3,151, FY 13 is 2,177. This is a big profit drop causing the CPO margins to deteriorate from 43% to 7%.

Average plywood & Log selling price in FY12 is 1,950&480, FY13 1,775&571. Margins for wood products dropped form 9% to 4%.

Plywood & logging business is sunset. KKY is talking about the palm oil business so let us analyze.

It has a palm oil plant able reserve land of 70.9k ha. Total planted is 62k, matured is 48k. Reserve land for planting is very limited, hence limiting future growth.
Age <4 years is 26.3%
Age 4-7 years is 61.8%
Age >8 years is 11.9%

Growth rate of FFB production is estimated to be raised from 700k in FY 13 to 900k in FY14.

Current yields are very poor at 15 ton/ha and OER of 14.13% is downright pathetic. No wonder Jtiasa cannot make much money with it's palm oil plantation, due to it's poor CPO productivity rate. Good plantation companies should be achieve yield of at least 21-23 tpha and oer of 22-23%.

Jtiasa is expecting it's palm oil to hit yield of 27 tpha when fully matured, but I know the soil in Sarawak is Peat Soil and NO company can achieve more than 18-20 tpha.

Lets say next year their palm oil did go up from 700k FFB to 900k FFB (yield increase from 15tph to 17tph). Assuming thier OER increased slightly to 15% & selling price higher at 2,200.

Estimated total gross sale will be 900,000t x 0.15 x 2200 = 297 million
lets say margin improve now to 10% total PAT will be 29.7 million
Wood business remains challenging so margin same PAT = 32 million which is not significant.

FY14EPS will be about 3-3.5 sen unless palm oil prices improve back to >3k I don't see how the business can justify such high price for stock even with future growth built in.

Psst, there are palm oil plantation with super growth, OER of 22.5%, yield of 24tpha in good volcanic soil selling at PE 12x. Isn't that a better deal?

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 27 2013, 11:45 AM

Maybe I should post the reply to KKY directly at Dali, but scared afterwards get shoot upside down....

Harlooo, I think your reply here is super geng!
Just post the reply la.
I don't think he dare to tembak up downside up.

Looks like I won't touch this stock.

ps: sometimes chart can look good but the good look usually not sustainable one.
ps: I like those that seem to want to go up forever and ever type of stocks.

Anyone holding HAIO?

I almost went in few months back...

I thought it was making a nice solid comeback and I still do.

Master Gark, you should post the reply and see how they argue.

Btw, I can see the way you structured your standpoint here and they make a lot of sense to me.

Thanks gark. Learnt something new today