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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V134, CI step into 1800, are you happy?

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river.sand
post Jul 29 2013, 12:23 PM

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How bad is China's economy?

Every week we hear some bad news from China, for example:

QUOTE
China’s manufacturing weakened by more than estimated in July, according to a preliminary survey of purchasing managers that casts further doubt on the government’s ability to meet its annual economic growth (CNGDPYOY) target.
The reading of 47.7 for an index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics, if confirmed in the final report Aug. 1, would be the lowest in 11 months. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. A separate euro-area gauge showed manufacturing unexpectedly expanded this month
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-24/c...wn-deepens.html

QUOTE
China’s exports and imports unexpectedly declined in June, underscoring the severity of the slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy as Premier Li Keqiang reins in credit growth.
Overseas shipments fell 3.1 percent from a year earlier, the most since the global financial crisis, data from the General Administration of Customs showed in Beijing today, compared with the median estimate of a 3.7 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports dropped 0.7 percent, while the median projection was for a 6 percent increase.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-10/c...on-economy.html

But at the same time, we have been told that China's GDP will grow about 7.5% this year, which is one of the fastest in the world. Where does the growth come from rclxub.gif
kueyteowlou
post Jul 29 2013, 12:24 PM

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tmclife tmclifee ! bee boo bee boo !
Boon3
post Jul 29 2013, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jul 29 2013, 12:24 PM)
tmclife tmclifee ! bee boo bee boo !
*
Bee boo bee boo... means ambulance coming.

So who is injured? tongue.gif
yhtan
post Jul 29 2013, 12:39 PM

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Long time didnt check in, index already standing at 1800 sweat.gif
foofoosasa
post Jul 29 2013, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jul 29 2013, 12:23 PM)
How bad is China's economy?

Every week we hear some bad news from China, for example:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-24/c...wn-deepens.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-10/c...on-economy.html

But at the same time, we have been told that China's GDP will grow about 7.5% this year, which is one of the fastest in the world. Where does the growth come from  rclxub.gif
*
Internal infrastructure construction boost by chinese Gov. sweat.gif Not really healthy growth of GDP.
kueyteowlou
post Jul 29 2013, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 29 2013, 12:27 PM)
Bee boo bee boo... means ambulance coming.

So who is injured? tongue.gif
*
cry.gif cry.gif cry.gif cry.gif
cckkpr
post Jul 29 2013, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 29 2013, 11:20 AM)
I think it should be next day, as most use Giro to transfer the e-dividend, so take 1 day to clear.
Correct me if I am wrong.
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The dividend monies are parked with the bank earlier together with the list of shareholders. So when the due date comes, a click will suffice and the monies should be there.
Icehart
post Jul 29 2013, 02:32 PM

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Today palm oil plunge a lot kah?
gark
post Jul 29 2013, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Jul 29 2013, 02:32 PM)
Today palm oil plunge a lot kah?
*
No wor.. only drop RM 9 from 2183 to 2174...

Probally someone panic now psychologically below 2200.

Time to pick some juicy plantations... laugh.gif especially those CPO cost below RM 1500 ones... still got good margin, shake out all the weak players:hehe:

Probally this news kua...

QUOTE
"Reports about European lawmakers backing a proposal to limit the use of biofuels in the region’s transport sector coupled with higher than expected soy stockpiles by the U.S. Department of Agriculture sparked selling pressure in the market,"


This post has been edited by gark: Jul 29 2013, 02:47 PM
felixmask
post Jul 29 2013, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Jul 29 2013, 02:32 PM)
Today palm oil plunge a lot kah?
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Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
felixmask
post Jul 29 2013, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 29 2013, 02:45 PM)
No wor.. only drop RM 9 from 2183 to 2174...

Probally someone panic now psychologically below 2200.

Time to pick some juicy plantations... laugh.gif especially those CPO cost below RM 1500 ones...  still got good margin, shake out all the weak players:hehe:

Probally this news kua...
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France will not discriminate palm oil products

the CPO shld go up hmm.gif
gark
post Jul 29 2013, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 29 2013, 02:51 PM)
They don't discriminate only they don't use it... whats the difference? These from the same people which raised the nutella tax. rolleyes.gif

CPO need this plunge, too many people planting expecting green gold. Good to shake out the weaker players, and the the price bottom up and set it up nicely for a bull run later. Hope the price drop below RM 1,500 / ton.. a lot of people gonna give away their palm fruit for free. brows.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 29 2013, 02:54 PM
gark
post Jul 29 2013, 03:00 PM

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Here we go again roller coaster... dead cat bouncing, now going down.

All my current holdings is blood RED today... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 29 2013, 03:01 PM
ivanau88
post Jul 29 2013, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 29 2013, 03:00 PM)
Here we go again roller coaster... dead cat bouncing, now going down.

All my current holdings is blood RED today...  laugh.gif
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so do i. damn bloody RED
felixmask
post Jul 29 2013, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 29 2013, 02:52 PM)
They don't discriminate only they don't use it... whats the difference? These from the same people which raised the nutella tax.  rolleyes.gif

CPO need this plunge, too many people planting expecting green gold. Good to shake out the weaker players, and the the price bottom up and set it up nicely for a bull run later. Hope the price drop below RM 1,500 / ton.. a lot of people gonna give away their palm fruit for free.  brows.gif
*
apa macam..you got give tips for plantation stock..also go down ??? like SOP
gark
post Jul 29 2013, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 29 2013, 03:09 PM)
apa macam..you got give tips for plantation stock..also go down ??? like SOP
*
Sure go down ler.. all CPO go down, in short term all profit will get hit. But I see a longer picture on the maturing palm oil, which will translate to higher earning, but a couple years down the road. tongue.gif

Not for the faint hearted... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 29 2013, 03:13 PM
felixmask
post Jul 29 2013, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 29 2013, 03:12 PM)
Sure go down ler.. all CPO go down, in short term all profit will get hit. But I see a longer picture on the maturing palm oil, which will translate to higher earning, but a couple years down the road.  tongue.gif

Not for the faint hearted...  laugh.gif
*
is CPO continue still can go down ???
gark
post Jul 29 2013, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 29 2013, 03:20 PM)
is CPO continue still can go down ???
*
Probably.. it did so previously. Max down i think will be RM 1,600-1,800/ton, lower than that a lot of plantation will not want to harvest, and let the fruit rot on tree. When this happens like in 2008/2009 the bounce back is extremely fast.

Plantation companies are not all efficient, when the price is high all tom d*** and harry also can make money. Looking at yield/ha and OER, low cost producers total costs are about RM 1,200-1,500 /ton CPO. Medium Cost producers are RM 1,500-1,800/ton CPO. Higher cost producers are about RM 1,800-2,200/ton.

Trick is look for :-

1. Low average tree age of 5-8 years
2. Significant plantable reserves
3. Lowest EV per ha plantation
4. High yield per Ha (min 18 t/ha)
5. High OER (Min 20%)





felixmask
post Jul 29 2013, 03:35 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 29 2013, 03:27 PM)
Probably.. it did so previously. Max down i think will be RM 1,600-1,800/ton, lower than that a lot of plantation will not want to harvest, and let the fruit rot on tree. When this happens like in 2008/2009 the bounce back is extremely fast.

Plantation companies are not all efficient, when the price is high all tom d*** and harry also can make money. Looking at yield/ha and OER, low cost producers total costs are about RM 1,200-1,500 /ton CPO. Medium Cost producers are RM 1,500-1,800/ton CPO. Higher cost producers are about RM 1,800-2,200/ton.

Trick is look for :-

1. Low average tree age of 5-8 years
2. Significant plantable reserves
3. Lowest EV per ha plantation
4. High yield per Ha (min 18 t/ha)
5. High OER (Min 20%)
*
THANKS YOU VERY MUCH.. flex.gif
kueyteowlou
post Jul 29 2013, 03:37 PM

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listen music in this red market...

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