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 V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 13 2013, 04:30 PM

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Nice one... now the bull is dead, no more bull run rclxms.gif

The lesson is... don't simply pandai pandai shoot in the dark la... brows.gif
Rooney1985
post Aug 13 2013, 05:47 PM

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Tertembak sendiri pulak... ROFLMAO!!!

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Rooney1985
post Aug 13 2013, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Aug 13 2013, 06:07 PM)
haha, staggering.
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Yup... Twisting and turning to get out of the tight spot... When wrong be a gentleman and admit it... Instead of being so childish... That's why sometimes it's wasting time and effort... I know quite a few senior bankers and seriously it doesnt mean someone that works in a bank knows all this that's just plain ridiculous to make statements like this... Anyways... Got better things to do then waste time explaining but good effort in doing some research... Please do more homework before mouthing off.
Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 08:45 AM

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QUOTE(greenstuff @ Aug 14 2013, 07:59 AM)
Was I talking bout u?
What people gang up with u? U think this is gangster thread?
No wonder there's no healthy debate can be held over in here, some people are tired of it.
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Freaking emotional ... lol!!!! Thinks the whole world revolves around a single person... drool.gif

For the benefit of all others, please note that Fed Rates and Mortgage Rates (in the US) have no correlation... as some may have intentionally/ unintentionally keep reiterating... The following website contains a graph mapping out these two rates against each other and it is very extremely clear there is no correlation.

http://investing.curiouscatblog.net/2008/0...e-rate-changes/

Lesson to learn is please please please be very very wary and careful of what you read here as some may sound convincing but in actual fact are spreading misleading and misguiding information.

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 08:47 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 14 2013, 08:15 AM)
there is very good debate on the Pak lah Awekening and the Singapore boss LKY in real world ...thread. I am very active there as this property thread very boring now yawn.gif

u should go check it out and do remember to buy these 2 books ( last week bought at KLCC and just finished reading @ Sunday)
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Yea the international reviews on LKY's new book are all praise and he deserves every bit of it... relative to some other countries, Singapore is way way way way ahead and on da fact that they don't have any natural resources... WOW!!!!! Gonna be getting a copy of his book this weekend... biggrin.gif
Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 09:03 AM

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QUOTE(greenstuff @ Aug 14 2013, 07:37 AM)
When somebody lost in debate, he will ask moderator to take action and ban that fella. This is what he can do.

I m innocent. But this was what happened. No offense.
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ROFLMAO!!!.... How saddening... this type of people are typical sore losers... not man enough to admit when they're wrong and always think they are correct... better leave them to their own thing la... Latter you kena ban for no reason then you know...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 09:44 AM

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Please stop making yourself look bad alright...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fed_Fund...001_to_2008.png

Linked graph shows Fed rate vs Fixed rates (FR) and Adjustable rates (AR).. Please note that in 03/04, Fed rate is around 1% while AR is approximately 3.5%... now look at 07/08 Feb rate drop from 5% to less than 1% while AR is maintained at above 5%... This is already enough proof that Fed rates and Mortgage rates DO NOT move in tandem...

Please do more homework/ research/ reading before mouthing off and making yourself look bad and now worse... if you're wrong admit it... be a man...

Sorry just couldn't help it... when someone is spreading wrong and misleading information I have to correct it when I know its wrong... If I don't know I'll just keep quiet.

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Aug 14 2013, 09:43 AM)
sign...
Interests rate is the cost of money and money goes for yield and yield depend on risks. By looking from this angle, perhaps someone would be enlightened and start thinking instead of bringing Perkasa into the discussion.

you're right, it ends nowhere......
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nod.gif Agreed to your point, this also means that purpose of Fed rates is very different to Mortgage rates. Anyway... whatever... Just can't help but correct the wrong... especially when others are reading this and are misled/ misguided.. If just one person telling me rubbish, I'll just walk away... and ROFLMAO!!!

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This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 14 2013, 09:55 AM
Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 10:08 AM

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My god... you're really desperate to win until scrapping in the dark... LOL!!!!!

First you say Federal rate and mortgage rate moves in tandem... which was already proven wrong by the graph and statistics... ... ahem and yet you don't want to admit you're wrong but still try to support your mistake and continue to misguide and mislead readers...

Now you pull in Federal RESERVE DISCOUNT rate into the picture to try and squirm your way out of admitting that you're wrong... yikes... Please please please... read up more before sharing incorrect information... Federal Rate and Federal Reserve Discount Rate are two different things... Please do not confuse yourself with the two and please be clear and not come up with the excuse, "Oh I was actually referring to that in the beginning"... wrong means wrong... admit it and be a gentleman...

End of it all... the actual historical rate movements in Fed rate and Mortgage (fixed and adjustable) DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT move in TANDEM as so fiercely support by one.

LOL!!!! from looking bad to worse to worst...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Aug 14 2013, 10:07 AM)
Answer to the question:
The recent 8 weeks rise (avg 70bps) of US ARM mortgage rate despite no change in 0.25% fed fund (it always happens):

This is super short explanation (may miss some detail but just to give a bigger picture):

last yr op twist and QE3,4 (whatever) induced very large treasuries/bonds buying that has pushed the yield lowest point. Then Ben's Jun '13 minute hinted possible tapering due to improved trade deficit number (not stop printing but slowing down on monetization) as early as Q3 '13. The market took it as real and to reduce exposure and possible pricing down of the bills, large fund start selling. It became a self fulfilling prophecy and market was contagion and everybody was in the selling mode that forced the long term yield spike over 100bps in just a few weeks. Those new in the treasuries market last year was burnt. There is a normal 80-150 (under current low rate condition) spread between mortgage rate and long term bond yield due to diff risk level. Thus, mortgage rate has to rise.
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thumbup.gif Wow!!! I don't remember you working for a bank but heck... the above is better said than most bankers .... wakakaka!!!

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 10:24 AM

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Sigh... from explaining Finance to explaining English... Please stop grasping in the dark to escape apologising...

The statement in the link says:

"The effect of federal reserve discount rates on other mortgage rates (such as adjustable rate mortgages is not the same and can be predictably affected by fed fund rate moves)"

Now please read carefully... this statement is saying that there is a correlation between Fed RESERVE DISCOUNT rate (FRDR) on Mortgage Rates (MR) and that this correlation between the two (i.e. FRDR and MR) is affected by the Fed FUND RATE (FFR)... (i.e. meaning that the FFR will impact the correlation between FRDR and MR, could be positive or negative).

HOWEVER, None of the above is saying that Fed Fund Rate moves in tandem with Mortgage Rate... I don't have to read 5 times... just once enough... however if you feel that you are confusing yourself with all the terminologies, please feel free to read more that 10 times before mouthing off.... and please if you don't want to admit your wrong there's another way... just keep quiet... people will forget and move on...

from looking bad, to worse, to worst, to ... to ... worst-est... hehe

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 10:31 AM

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ROFLMAO!!!! Very amazing trick to escape admitting wrong by reading 7 words out of a 30 word sentence and concluding rclxms.gif WOW!!!! thumbup.gif Really BOLEH-land...

Anyway... if its so difficult to admit wrong then its okay... next time please check properly before misleading/ misguiding the many who come here looking for useful/ helpful information.

Oh, just got forwarded this article... Got some useful information...

Malaysia's Stock Market and Economy Disconnect
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41836.html

Those who read and find it helpful you're welcome... those who read and don't find it useful, no one asked you to read it, so don't complain... lol!!!

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 14 2013, 10:35 AM
Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 10:38 AM

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Let the truth and facts speak for itself...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 10:54 AM

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All this... "oh you're the winner", "yes you won", "yea, I know I won"... doesn't matter.... What is this... school sports day??? lol!!!

What matters is that readers of this forum are not misled and misguided with incorrect information, intentionally or unintentionally spread... We're all here to share and learn from each other... Nuf said... Time to relax and read up on some economist and financial times.... whooo peeeee...

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This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 14 2013, 10:55 AM
Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 01:10 PM

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Rooney1985
post Aug 14 2013, 01:21 PM

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Rooney1985
post Aug 15 2013, 08:41 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 15 2013, 08:28 AM)
Not Many people know this...only accountant understand what i am talking.

Malaysia Govt biggest debts are those not yet estimated "pension".

Our govt book never make provision for such amount. ....so nobody know the amount.....rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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Oooooo.... nice.... lol!!!! hmmmm.... like those firecrackers during chinese new year... the big explosion at the end... drool.gif

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Rooney1985
post Aug 15 2013, 08:54 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 15 2013, 08:47 AM)
explosion?

many people saying we have bubble forming.

but, i yet to see bubble forming. But for sure is down coming forward.....Maybe i am wrong, bubble really  forming as the  speculate investor leave the market and the elasticity of fast money gone and no more $$ to absorp.

like you said " big exploision at the end"
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Actually the big explosion I was referring to was in relation to your insight on the provisions for pension fund withdrawal... There's some truth in that and it makes sense as to why the retirement age was extended to 60 in order to maintain the source of funds to pension... It also makes sense to hear them encourage pensioners not to withdraw all the monies from their pension fund... Remains to be seen how much more funds left in the jar... Other countries have already highlighted their concerns on the diminishing working population of baby boomers whom are categorised as the "hard working" and "thrifty" generation in relation to the newer Gens...

Since this is a property thread... Impact on property market?

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 15 2013, 08:59 AM
Rooney1985
post Aug 15 2013, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 15 2013, 08:59 AM)
oh i see.

i read seremban 2 wotre" Government still need to maintain alot of government servant"

so... the immediate respone is the  "govt servant pension" is the greater govt debts.

Nobody know this amount. This amount is a snowball as every year govt increase pension at budget and peolpe are living longer and some people have 4 wife and some wife are very young  brows.gif  brows.gif  and the govt still need to pay the young wife after the pensioner gone. rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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Now now... we shall not question that special right... you don't want to be banned do you??? Behave yourself Tika, as you are already aware some may be quite sensitive when it comes to these matters.

Anyhow... good point... the depreciation of the RM makes things worst in terms of repayment of interest and debt and this is further amplified by the rating downgrade which will increase cost of borrowings... its a double slap in the face... whether the increase in exports (due to devalued RM) can net out the negative impact on debt repayments remains to be seen... my opinion is, the overall effect will be more negative than positive as the trade surplus current is pretty small... and added to that fact is all across the world growth is declining and some are struggling to exit recession... who is boleh-land going to export to? Interest rates up up up?

Impact on property market?

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Rooney1985
post Aug 15 2013, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 15 2013, 09:14 AM)
agree more negative than positive. Thats why i estimate more down lo.

on your "as you are already aware some may be quite sensitive when it comes to these matters."

I wonder why lowyat suddenly  so fragile now?

this cannot said and that thread cannot be created.... ?

why so sensitive?
  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
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Better don't say you foresee down also because some who just entered market can get very emotional because they might feel that your opinions on lowyat forum can move the market ... drool.gif

Hmmm... dunno if using big fonts will get you banned or not? Back to topic... noticed a few more up-market units up for auction this august... secondary market ASKING prices also up... but my tracking shows its the same units still on the market... hmmm... denial stage?

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