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 V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 1 2013, 07:05 AM

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QUOTE(661188 @ Aug 1 2013, 04:19 AM)
Ccris only show loan not deposit.
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BS kena kantoi... Hehe smile.gif
Rooney1985
post Aug 1 2013, 05:49 PM

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Stock prices are determined based on their underlying assets/ income generation capability... those that go bust were either having overvalued assets OR overrated future income generation... Just like Lehman (overvalued assets)... dot com companies... (all empty shells and overrated technologies that never made it to the market)... properties weren't severely hit the last recessions because in boleh-land they weren't overvalued (as they weren't widely used as investment tools)... today's property prices are a very different story and so are the motives behind purchasing them compared to before.

My opinion...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 1 2013, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 1 2013, 08:20 PM)
good tot. and ... wait 4.5 yrs = genuine homebuyers? !!
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Can't wait for the response to this... Should be good.
Rooney1985
post Aug 1 2013, 08:33 PM

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http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/ar...t-ringgit-drops

Hmmmm.... smile.gif selling more securities is a sign of?
Rooney1985
post Aug 1 2013, 08:51 PM

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Wow!
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 08:58 AM)
Yup your wrong. I somehow get to know a fellow colleague who only invest in stock and never into property. His word of advise... prepare to pay a sum of tuition fee before you can start earning haha.
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thumbup.gif I like your straight-forwardness (in relation to the first three words) lol!!!

I too know some uncle who is amazing when it comes to stocks, he's got a very simple strategy (secret)... but not that great in properties... so now he's already cashed out of stocks and keeping millions in foreign & local deposits... just waiting... he doesn't even bother looking at the index these days... just enjoying his dim sum, walks, tea, and chit chatting... I asked him why not go into properties... he says he's not good in properties and anyway he thinks prices are too high...

He looks just like any other uncle out there... I was shocked when I found out that he was freaking rich... jeezzzz...
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 09:52 AM)
Perhaps the same person? lol. Well i am straight forward and open to criticism. His indeed driving a jetta - did not take loan for it.. and staying in a fully paid semi-D in usj heights.. and his only 38 this year. I always chit chat with him regarding props... stock market and any rubbish which relates to financial topic. His comment was the same... waiting for the right time atm. He too share with me that he parked his money somewhere and waiting for the chance and asking me whether i'm interested to join him. Told him no money.
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Don't think its the same person... This fella I know is an uncle, retired fella... His advice also... waiting for the right time... lol!!! hmmm... He only tell me one thing... now is time to collect bullets... when he enter he will tell me... But whether I have the balls to do what he does is another story... So I also collecting now... waiting for his green light... lol...

He started with few hundred K... now he has millions!!!! from stocks... I guess he must be doing something right...
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 10:25 AM

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WoW!
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 10:33 AM)
nop i'm not.. I've already set a path which I want to go along with it. Will be only into property and my plan is to accumulate 7 by the age of 40 with some being fully paid off. I do not want to bother myself with other investment link cause i really do not have that much time..

bro again i think the investor word in this sense is a wrong word to use yes his Semi-D appreciated close to 200% but he always ask me.. If i sell where i want to buy? where am i going to stay? That's also a right question to ask to be honest. I think you can only categorize oneself if and only if the person plans to sell his property if they are planning to keep it until they sleeps in the coffin i don't think it's right to categorize ppl as a property investor. no?
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Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 11:48 AM

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http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...tax/763634.html

Hmmmm ...
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 02:51 PM)
laugh.gif 

Depends on timing. If went in only in end 2011, and not out by now, sure lau sai

I have some % in gold. Although my average price over 20-30 years is low, but in % return wise, no fight with property and stock market. I think gold return is only on par with FD rate.
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More like chiak sai... tongue.gif
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 03:11 PM

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http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ma...rs-exaggerated/

Whats gonna happen when all this hot money vanishes? G better have some spectacular fiscal plan to boost productivity/ growth... I have a feeling, someone is gonna ask the rakyat for ideas very soon... biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 2 2013, 03:17 PM
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 2 2013, 03:55 PM)
Haha, but research is fun! My research has led me to the conclusion that the timing of bubble bursts in asset markets are inherently unpredictable by the layperson, and I look on with bemusement on much of the discussion here about how to predict with a crash with certainty. I felt that Singapore's property bubble ought to have burst in 2008/9, and I organised my finances around that happening, but it didn't. The problem was that I failed to predict the success of the QE experiment in containing the financial crisis, and in flooding safe havens like Singapore with unlimited amounts of cheap liquidity such that mortgage rates were half that of inflation. Similarly today, I still have no idea what impact Abenomics is going to have on us, i.e. whether it can cancel out QE tapering, whether and how other countries like China will respond etc. I also have no idea how much of our RM 433B in reserves BNM will be willing to burn to save homebuyers in the event of an impending crash. At the end, due to my limited intellect, all I can do is try to work around the risk of a crash, and not bet everything on it.

Stock is not necessarily more dangerous than property. The risks are just different, and it's actually easier to hold on to stock than property in a crash because you don't have monthly payment commitments and an illiquid asset that cannot be converted into cash. In 97, the equities market collapsed but not the residential property market. This is easily explained by the fact that the AFC was caused by excessive corporate leverage, leading profitable companies to become unprofitable when debt payment obligations are magnified by a collapsing currency and an increasing interest rate. On the other hand, household debt was low and prices of housing were reasonable relative to fundamentals. Follow the debt, I say, and you'll find where your risks lie.

In any event, even if stagnation is more likely, the risk of an unexpected crash happening is very real and very significant, but too many people like to pretend that this risk does not exist. Due to high leverage and exposure to nothing but property, many out there will not survive a crash. Currently, the biggest risk factor to overleveraged households is the outflow of hot money, leading to a decrease in the value of the Ringgit, and an increase in inflation leading to pressure on the part of BNM to raise interest rates to protect the currency and to manage inflation. If you trace back my earlier posts back in V6 and V7 I hypothesised that the property booms happening simultaneously across emerging markets with little relationship with each other appears to be a symptom of the policy responses in developed countries to the global crisis leading to huge swathes of hot money flooding the region, and is not really caused by domestic factors. This hot money is transient, and won't last forever. If and when QE reverses, so will the hot money and our fortunes. Currently, we are already seeing a drastic weakening in the MYR due to an outflow of hot money. Personally, I found this weakening a bit of an overreaction, as tapering has not even started yet! I'm waiting for a correction before I continue moving my MYR out into USD assets (As I've been doing for more than a year  rclxms.gif )
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Wow... Very long and informative post... Thanks... I just wish to add that the weakening of RM may not necessarily be caused by the tapering of QE but most likely the weakness or should I say relative potential of the economy to provide above average returns... Investors are seeing this and maybe reacting to it by pulling their funds away to other emerging markets as well as the recovering US... Just too many factors indicating a rise in Interest rates I wonder whether those highly leveraged can afford this added stress to their financials and how long can they do it for... May turn very ugly especially if neighbouring economies are more competitive...
Rooney1985
post Aug 6 2013, 08:37 AM

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http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...ore/766250.html

Hmmm... is this news telling us something about future property prices in bolehland?

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Rooney1985
post Aug 6 2013, 09:41 AM

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http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/08/05/...adds-to-unease/

tsk tsk tsk... boleh land is really boleh land... with everything dropping from currency to trade surplus somehow they can still find the time and focus to give hand-outs... LoL!!!! How typical... Hmmm... wonder how much longer till we adopt India's approach (raise interest rates) maybe by then it might be too little too late...

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This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 6 2013, 09:42 AM
Rooney1985
post Aug 6 2013, 10:30 AM

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http://www.imoney.my/articles/bankruptcy/

Good read... especially those in BBB mode... the trend also like property prices up up up...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 6 2013, 10:32 AM

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http://samcheekong.blogspot.com/2013/07/ef...squeeze-on.html

Also find some information here useful... in case any of you missed out...

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Rooney1985
post Aug 6 2013, 10:53 AM

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LOL!!!! WoW!!!!
Rooney1985
post Aug 6 2013, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2013, 10:41 AM)
it's already sgd1=rm2.55. saying 2.50 is very polite!

if things continue that way with no action, 2.60 is likely by yr end.

sgreans will buy daily and eat daily stuff in johor with a bigger buck but i doubt there are that many wanting to lose in exchange rate and transaction costs despite some appr after 2-3 yrs.
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If that happens, would it mean that there would be less for Johorians to consume?? Which would then leading to crowding out effect and push up overall consumer prices... meaning overall Johorians would be poorer and poorer (in terms of living standards)?? ... How saddening... I'm sure Johorians wouldn't like that... biggrin.gif

Rooney1985
post Aug 6 2013, 11:19 AM

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Apologies for the off topic on Johor... anyway... here's another good article to read...

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...-says-economist

Key points to take away from the article for me was:-

"Debt-fuelled growth has let Malaysia plaster over the cracks of a softening economy already showing the signs that heralded the dotcom crash and Asian financial crisis"

“Asia’s inconvenient truth, in short, is that the rise in debt has masked deteriorating growth fundamentals"

"The troubling question now is: how much would growth have slowed if it wasn’t for the rise in debt?”

I guess for the past few years a lot of funds (debts) have been dumped into properties to churn out overall growth... which does not create value (in terms of productivity) and the question is how in the world are they going to reverse this false value creation in properties (bearing in mind the illiquid nature of these assets) in order to create real sustainable growth fundamentals.

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 6 2013, 11:33 AM

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