QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 6 2013, 01:00 PM)
The magic of credit growth is that always creates an "illusion" of a sudden explosion in wealth creation, as households magically fast forward income from the next 40 years to be spent today. Those who fail to appreciate the fundamentals behind credit growth tend to mistake the illusion for the real thing, and their optimism leads to even more credit expansion. However, this trend cannot last forever, and the wealth created is destroyed via the process of deleveraging once credit tightens up.
Not all credit is bad of course. Hedge financing is healthy, whereas speculative and ponzi financing are bad. The problem is we don't know how much is bad, how much is good. I've always taken the view that we cannot tell how healthy mortgage debt is from bankruptcy rates when a market is rising faster than interest rates, as rising prices will increase your asset value faster than your debt even if you don't make a single payment. We'll only be able to tell when interest rates start crawling up. Based on recent news I think it is almost certain that rates will start edging up by the end of the year, and the key question is only: how much?
Thus its always a good idea to sit down and reflect not on the number of houses/ apartments/ condos you own... but also truly and deeply consider the amount of debt behind all that which needs to be repaid with interest... Not all credit is bad of course. Hedge financing is healthy, whereas speculative and ponzi financing are bad. The problem is we don't know how much is bad, how much is good. I've always taken the view that we cannot tell how healthy mortgage debt is from bankruptcy rates when a market is rising faster than interest rates, as rising prices will increase your asset value faster than your debt even if you don't make a single payment. We'll only be able to tell when interest rates start crawling up. Based on recent news I think it is almost certain that rates will start edging up by the end of the year, and the key question is only: how much?
Unless you have plenty of cash and buy with cash... if that's the case then anytime is a good time to buy! lol!!!
Aug 6 2013, 01:09 PM

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