good one but i don't think many will appreciate it. Here is my reason.
I have clients (more than half) mistakenly think the mortgage rate is going to be low (<6%) and can't comprehend the possibility of 200 or more basis point increase. The common reason they cite is our OPR is 3% and BNM will do whatever they could to lower further the rate since it has been like that for the past few yrs.
It is quite
dangerous to think that way and that's why whoever have a tendency to use i.e fed fund rate to 'forecast' the mortgage trends should REFRAIN from doing.
A more scientific and practical method is still watch closely the credit market supply/demand (involve a lot of data). Nothing less than looking into the current a/c (which affect how payment is made between partners. It will lead to how our currency and monetary policy), broad money supply trend, reserve requirement SRR (that when OPR comes in), fiscal policy (it affect health of our economy that lead to the money cost a.k.a interests rate), reserve surplus (bullets available for rainy day), debts market especially sovereign and etc.
Unfortunately to connect the dots and draw a conclusion is far too outstretch to most people.
So better don't do it if you don't know these stuffs. Just continue to be prudence financially (don't over burdened with debts. New wave against debts is coming near), save money and be prepare for 200 - 300 basis point (or maybe more) interests rate hike at least for mid term, i.e post 2015.
But if still want be smart but not paying the price to do tons of reading and researches. Don't look into short term interbank rate (fed fund rate or OPR in our case). Instead, your priority should be on long term government bonds market. Does't mean to ignore the OPR, but try to bring in the bonds into the picture. why? beyond explanation here. but if you do grasp the mechanism, it's very worthwhile.
** this comment is not target to Amaybumibuyer, but to general readers. Just a piece of opinion. Don't listen to all self awarded 'pro'. Do your own research and seek advise from really competence people. It is your own money bro! ** Ditto on the last sentence.
I agree on your points and I take a different approach to understanding the rates... purpose of fed rates are to manage the overall liquidity in the economy and to ensure that all available monies are not idle whereas mortgage rates (fixed and adjustable) as you rightly put is more dependent in that area of finance (i.e. mortgages) therefore its down to margins/ profits/ products/ strategies/ etc... two very different things... now fed reserve discount rate is actually an outright borrowing from fed funds rather than funds in the economy... now if the additional funds require is not available from the market (i.e. other banks), then the bank will have to borrow from the fed ... the cost of this borrowing has to be borne by someone and therefore will be absorbed into the mortgage rates or whatever commercial product rate in which the borrowed money (from fed) is used for... so the different rates will impact different areas of the market because that's the original purpose it was set up for in the first place.
Ditto again on the last sentence.