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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V132, Everyone Huat!

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yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:17 PM

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Looks like some are on panic sell mood now.
Good, level up a step. Stage....forgot what #. tongue.gif

I am bad and too inpatient. My cash position actually dropped from 50% to 43% now. So late purchase were making paper loss.
Maybe should have listen to Neo grand sifu, buy next month onwards better? biggrin.gif
jasontoh
post Jun 24 2013, 09:19 PM

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I am still wondering, if FF exit emerging market and invest US, by right, Dog Jones should surge up, but why are we not seeing those?
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 24 2013, 09:13 PM)
That why I keep on remind myself one simple theory.

Crowded trade is always wrong in investment,
in other word, when more and more people screaming to buy, and more crowd are joining the bandwagon, then often the investment highly will go wrong one.

This apply across various investment target.

That's why I do not like to see a lot of people say good thing about reit...  sweat.gif
and it makes me worry when people are rushing to buy property... and thinking property price always go up one.
*
REIT is a good example too. Now started selling down from super peak? laugh.gif
Late few months, still seeing huge placement at close to today's price in CMMT and Axreit. Wondering if these stocks will drop below those price? If that happens, will Axreit difficult to get further placement in future? Since Axreit placement at least once a year on its aggressive growth plan. hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:22 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jun 24 2013, 09:19 PM)
I am still wondering, if FF exit emerging market and invest US, by right, Dog Jones should surge up, but why are we not seeing those?
*
I was asking the same question. Wondering. laugh.gif
My wild guess is, FF is playing the market, so that they benefit the most. So now, they are actually holding more cash than ever. hmm.gif
staind
post Jun 24 2013, 09:24 PM

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i think the FF now busy counting money. too much money to count.. take some time to finish.
jasontoh
post Jun 24 2013, 09:25 PM

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Then we follow the FF direction. Cash out first, change to RM1 note, and count the money at home biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
cherroy
post Jun 24 2013, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jun 24 2013, 09:19 PM)
I am still wondering, if FF exit emerging market and invest US, by right, Dog Jones should surge up, but why are we not seeing those?
*
The word, deleveraging.

When yield is getting higher, it makes no sense to borrow and invest.
No every investment made is done by own cash money.

A lot of investment can be done by leveraging.
For eg.
When one want to invest in equities, bonds or whatever that yielding 4-5%, investment banker can arrange margin/leverage facility for one, x million to invest.
The borrowed money carry interest of 2-3% (due QE effect), while the investment target yielding 5%, a carry trade, without need to bring out a single cent, and enjoy the difference.
A net 2% difference of 1 million means 20K without sweat, without need to fork out a single cent.
1 million for investment banker is peanut only.

So when yield is getting higher, the reverse happens.
jasontoh
post Jun 24 2013, 09:28 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 24 2013, 09:26 PM)
The word, deleveraging.

When yield is getting higher, it makes no sense to borrow and invest.
No every investment made is done by own cash money.

A lot of investment can be done by leveraging.
For eg.
When one want to invest in equities, bonds or whatever that yielding 4-5%, investment banker can arrange margin/leverage facility for one, x million to invest.
The borrowed money carry interest of 2-3% (due QE effect), while the investment target yielding 5%, a carry trade, without need to bring out a single cent, and enjoy the difference.
A net 2% difference of 1 million means 20K without sweat, without need to fork out a single cent.
1 million for investment banker is peanut only.

So when yield is getting higher, the reverse happens.
*
rclxub.gif rclxub.gif rclxub.gif
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 24 2013, 09:26 PM)
The word, deleveraging.

When yield is getting higher, it makes no sense to borrow and invest.
No every investment made is done by own cash money.

A lot of investment can be done by leveraging.
For eg.
When one want to invest in equities, bonds or whatever that yielding 4-5%, investment banker can arrange margin/leverage facility for one, x million to invest.
The borrowed money carry interest of 2-3% (due QE effect), while the investment target yielding 5%, a carry trade, without need to bring out a single cent, and enjoy the difference.
A net 2% difference of 1 million means 20K without sweat, without need to fork out a single cent.
1 million for investment banker is peanut only.

So when yield is getting higher, the reverse happens.
*
And the bank received back a lot of cash. What would the bank do with these "extra" cash? Not using them for investment? hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jun 24 2013, 09:28 PM)
rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
*
This is how Lowyat forum own legendary Neo made his millions by leveraging to buy huge REITs during financial crisis, if I remember correctly. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:37 PM

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DJ begins trading with triple digits falling. Lets see what's following. biggrin.gif
staind
post Jun 24 2013, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 24 2013, 09:35 PM)
And the bank received back a lot of cash. What would the bank do with these "extra" cash? Not using them for investment? hmm.gif
*
Was about to ask the same questions. But I think, could it be the FF are actually not returning the money to bank. Now the park their money at higher interest rate investment such as bond. They should still be earning as their money was borrowed at near zero interest rate.
staind
post Jun 24 2013, 09:43 PM

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http://www.indexq.org/wide.php

Compare between emerging and US market, YTD, they are still very much green compare to emerging market. So, money actually returning to US. Now, FF playing playing to collect at dip at US market. Whereas, in emerging markets, more downside to come. what you guys think?
simplesmile
post Jun 24 2013, 09:46 PM

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I wonder what Neo's doing now.
cherroy
post Jun 24 2013, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 24 2013, 09:35 PM)
And the bank received back a lot of cash. What would the bank do with these "extra" cash? Not using them for investment? hmm.gif
*
Deleveraging and deflation in worth means money varnish in thin air, as same as the opposite of money created in thin air.

Yield is getting higher, so those extra cash can buy those higher yield asset.

Remember when a bond being sold down (that resulted yield getting higher), there is still a buyer and a seller.

Money is not always constant, aka if there is 1 million, then the 1 million must be somewhere.
It doesn't.

A simple scenario, if stock market plunging, resulted value become lesser, then where is the money goes?
It varnish.
Nobody is winner, everyone losing money. So 100 million worth become 50 million, where is the 50 million, gone with thin air.

While in bullish market, everyone is making money, who is loser?
No one.
Money become more and more.

Stock market is never a zero sum game.
Only futures market is.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 24 2013, 09:50 PM
foofoosasa
post Jun 24 2013, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 24 2013, 09:01 PM)
I choose Cash as King...........

Just my own preference over shares ..
*
Some of my FD maturing Soon, Mari Mari Pasar malam diskaun jualan brows.gif
jasontoh
post Jun 24 2013, 09:52 PM

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Time for me to pay off PTPTN then, with 20% discount since nothing to buy yet.
vccy118
post Jun 24 2013, 09:52 PM

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Wait... If I recall correctly, US stocks can be shorted right?
foofoosasa
post Jun 24 2013, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 24 2013, 09:13 PM)
That why I keep on remind myself one simple theory.

Crowded trade is always wrong in investment,
in other word, when more and more people screaming to buy, and more crowd are joining the bandwagon, then often the investment highly will go wrong one.

This apply across various investment target.

That's why I do not like to see a lot of people say good thing about reit...  sweat.gif
and it makes me worry when people are rushing to buy property... and thinking property price always go up one.
*
Did you sold / or reduce your Reits holding ?
Because everyone knows you destroy your sell button.
Or already repair in last month biggrin.gif
cherroy
post Jun 24 2013, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 24 2013, 09:52 PM)
Did you sold / or reduce your Reits holding ?
Because everyone knows you destroy your sell button.
Or already repair in last month  biggrin.gif
*
I try to search for it when Axreit was 4.00 just last Thursday (because yield too low), but surprisingly (may be talked too much of destroy sell button tongue.gif ), I do not know where is the sell button on the online platform, too long no use already. (screen view problem, page setting)
When I found it, market close already.

So no sell button still intact... biggrin.gif

Actually, I am a bit worry on the property market situation and too many people too bullish on property as well as high household debt level.


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