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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V132, Everyone Huat!

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cherroy
post Jun 12 2013, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jun 12 2013, 02:53 PM)
True.

Thats what he told me too

Instead of spending on Guardian/Watson, why don't you spend on Amway and the money goes back you

Told you their persistency is super hohliao, dont forget he is only 20 years old & has been brainwashed & sold to the company, I salute him & I'm sure he will be richer than me one day down the road  notworthy.gif
*
Amway product same price with Watson? whistling.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 12 2013, 02:58 PM
cherroy
post Jun 12 2013, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 12 2013, 02:48 PM)
You join Amway if you wish to become a millionaire, not because you want to use its products.
If you have the Amway millionaire dream, automatically you will go to Amway warehouse to collect the products, not matter how inconvenient it is. (And no matter how expensive the products are.)
*
I only know can become millionaire by selling product to other.
I do not know one can become millionaire by buying the product and consume it. New to me...

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 12 2013, 03:00 PM
cherroy
post Jun 13 2013, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 13 2013, 04:36 PM)
If BNM raise interest rate like BI... then REIT will kaboom!  whistling.gif
*
With weak IPI, negative export figure, and highly GDP growth will be slower, I do not think BNM will raise rate.

Many business people, salesmen are complaining "quiet" business out there already, except car, property one <--- rising household debt level supporting. sweat.gif
cherroy
post Jun 13 2013, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(vccy118 @ Jun 13 2013, 09:52 PM)
lol, slowly wait!

If got FD 7%... I guarantee you, at least 1/3 of the local ikan bilis investors will put 20-50% of their cash in FD, lock 6 months to 1 year, then you will see bursa suddenly quiet down
*
If FD 7%, I would dump all the reit.

Park in FD 7% is better than reit yield 4-5%.
Easy decision.

Reit yield must better than FD, if not, why put in reit in the first place.

cherroy
post Jun 13 2013, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 13 2013, 10:29 PM)
IF 7% , the good  old days are coming back.

More joy for me .

Thanks
*
How many years has passed since the 7% FD?
1997 --> 2013, 16 years and counting.

So slowly wait......
cherroy
post Jun 14 2013, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 14 2013, 10:25 AM)
PE 3 ok lar... but if the PE is not consistent/one off then not ok also...
*
If there is a stock with PE 3, in a bullish stock market (until now equities is still performing very well, despite recent volatility) then must extra becareful.

In a bullish stock market, generally,

Good thing won't come cheap.
Cheap thing may not necessary must be good.

And another phrase is too good to be true.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 14 2013, 11:16 AM
cherroy
post Jun 15 2013, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 15 2013, 12:27 PM)
Don;t u think it is easier to ask the sharks to goreng your stock  hmm.gif

At least, it is one step closer  laugh.gif

If not , u get to know why why why , yr stock in hibernation mood  yawn.gif
*
Ask shark goreng your stock to make you a profit? whistling.gif

I do not know shark is doing charity work in stock market... tongue.gif
cherroy
post Jun 15 2013, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jun 15 2013, 12:34 PM)
Actually.. sharks always do charity work one in the stock market..
*
Shark become ikan bakar? biggrin.gif

From my knowing in the past, not every goreng successful one,
shark can be gorenged back by the market and turn into ikan bakar one as well.
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 18 2013, 07:38 AM)
Interesting writing from Alex. Interest rate up, properties price drop.
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2013/06/more...erest-rate.html

If next year or so, interest rate will start moving up, then why properties sector is top picks by ALL IBs?

I still remember 2 to 3 years ago, many IBs put properties stocks as top picks and put high TPs (still much lower than current TPs though). And then after just 1 year, they all downgrade it and cut TPs by 30-40%.
Just wondering, 2 years later, or maybe as soon as next year if we really see interest rate up by 0.5%. Maybe these IBs all will get panic and fast fast cut TPs by 30-40% saying properties price may have peaked. Before "real workers" filling up Iskandar or Big KL or whatever gorgeous names, many of the bought houses will still be empty, that will help to create the panic selldown and overhang of house price.
Today, we already seeing oversupply of office space and retail malls. Where are all the "new people" coming into Malaysia to fill them up? Or should ask, when?
hmm.gif
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Interest rate up?
I do not think so, with weak IPI, shrinking export, lower GDP number recently, doesn't suggest BNM will raise OPR.

Even bank FD rate doesn't suggest interest rate is on the way up, as if the interest rate is trending upwards, banks generally willing to offer good rate, aka long term FD tenure is significant higher than short term one, as locking up long term FD can earn bank more profit if the rate is on the way up.

cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 10:52 AM)
Generally new auctions of Bonds in Asia or US treasury received not very favorable response .

If Bonds yield goes  up and up  , then Banks to follow in one way or another.
*
Bonds yield up or not won't affect the OPR and BLR.

Bank FD is following OPR by BNM, not bond yield.

Bond yield up means corporate that want to do financing one, may cost more or may need to pay more to attract bond buyer.

As bond yield is ridiculous low, some corporate bond is/was yielding 4%, while FD can get 3.x%.

One subject to default risk, while one is not. How can one subjected to defaulting risk just have less than 1% extra?


This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 18 2013, 11:09 AM
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 11:53 AM)
I do not know why Malaysia is so unique and powerful  that can overrule US changes in rates.

But according to  the bankers I  know of , told me Malaysia has impacted more or less in the long run......
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Interest rate or overnight rate (OPR) is set by BNM and controlled by respective central bank.

How bond pricing or yield generally (if do not move too drastically) generally won't affect the overnight rate, unless central bank is powerless to control the movement.

Aka if your interest rate too high, massive hot money flow in causing currency shooting drastically
or
interest rate too low vs bond pricing, massive outflow causing exchange rate plummeting like 97.

In this situation only the market force can force central bank to act.

But since 97, capital market is not as open and free like last time, aka no limit, no control on how money being TT out/in etc,
, so a good capital control measurement can reduce this kind of issue.

Since 2008 crisis, we can see a free and open movement of capital can cause more harm than good.

That's why Malaysia can have 3% while US interest remain at zero, and there is no massive hot money pouring in, causing RM to shoot up to the roof.

Yes, impact will be there, but if local liquidity is enough, and domestic economy condition is intact, it shouldn't cause any major issue.

That's why I do not see how BNM can opt to hike in interest rate, particularly GDP number is becoming less and less, last month export is shrinking, IPI is weak. And many businesses out there already complain sluggish sales.

Domestic interest rate is to cater domestic economy activities, this is the primary function of the interest rate.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 18 2013, 12:54 PM
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 11:58 AM)
IT shows Malaysia is not a Standalone like what I say :-

Najib forms new fiscal policy panel to cut GDP deficit by 3% by 2015

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...y-2015&Itemid=2

The outflows of money is there.....
*
Fiscal policy to cut deficit is about self-sustain of gov financing.

Gov cannot rely forever on deficit to run upon, aka keep on borrowing to fund the paycheck (be it from EPF or where).

Nothing to do with outflow

Whether the outflow is serious or not, we can see from the currency account surplus/deficit, as well as rising/shrinking in foreign currency reserves.
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 02:20 PM)
I do not think it is right to say Banks are not allowed to raise FD interest rates  without a change in BLR or OPR.

Banks in fact have lower - 1 to 2 % BLR loans to properties borrowers.

LIkewise , Hong Leong comes out a FD innovation to attract long term depositors (  6 years )  , more or less expecting FD interest rates  to rise in the future.
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I don't mean bank is not allowed or allowed.
Banks are always sensitive to interest rate movement.

The moment they expect rate to go up, we may see many bank start offering 1,2 or 5 years FD with rate higher than normal (or short term rate) that intend to lock down the customer deposit rate already.
Just like if current rate is 3%, and they expect to be 5% in the coming few years, banks may start offering long term FD with 4% or something like that to lock down their deposit rate.

With now 1 year common rate out there is 3.1% (not those promotion rate, as many promotion are limited to certain amount, aka bank just want to take in x millions deposit for their liquidity or cash position etc then cease the promotion already) as compared 3% OPR, it doesn't suggest bank see OPR going to be raised for sometimes or near term.
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 09:30 PM

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I think the tapering issue is over-cooked and over-feared by the market.

Just because of reducing QE (reduce, not totally stop, this is tapering means), and not yet about saying raising interest rate (Did Ben raise rate before?), now everyone talk about rising rate...

Reducing QE may cause bonds price back to the level they should have, it won't cause bond yield rising to the roof.
It just back to its normal day, that it should be.

While even QE is stopped eventually, it doesn't mean Fed must raise rate either.

But in stock market, and many talks just talk it likes end of the day of the stock market.

Even stock market drop 10-20%, it just means a healthy correction after several years of good day/year of stock market.

Having said so, even with volatility in the stock market recently, DJ is still steady above 15k, KLCI hardly drop, STI just drop a bit, so does major European bourses, so where is the actual "crash" of stock market?
None, but the tapering word keep on cooked again and again.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 18 2013, 09:34 PM
cherroy
post Jun 19 2013, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Jun 19 2013, 03:02 PM)
Fundamentally not yet but MAS always have been kind giving free money lately.
Also, MAS is too big of a national pride to fail.  biggrin.gif
*
Many also think like that when the stock was Rm2, Rm1, and Rm0.80.... whistling.gif
cherroy
post Jun 19 2013, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jun 19 2013, 03:24 PM)
biggrin.gif I heard 10000000X times, "MAS is government baby, wont let it die one"

this sentence made many ppl burn hand

1 years+ ago I tell everyone, either MAS going delist or right issue...........nobody wanna believe me
*
Whether MAS good to invest or not, simply look at its operating revenue vs operating expenses already give a clue how is the condition of company financially.


cherroy
post Jun 19 2013, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jun 19 2013, 03:50 PM)
hmm.gif Last week, a MAS investor told me that MAS is strong in financial as they buy the new plane with real money instead of borrowing. Unlike with AirAsia.

MAS future is good as they can utilize the new plane to save the petrol.

laugh.gif I comment that, MAS has not enough passenger to support, high in freight price.................still buy new plane, is that high risk?
*
LOL, real money?
Where is the real money come from?

Profit? operating revenue more than expenses?
These are 2 key factor that generate cash or "real money" for any business.

I want to take a flight from Penang to Sg.
A mere couple extra hundred, never mind, just want to have peace of mind and good time schedule for 1 days return trip only.

So I log in MAS to search for a ticket.
And the result come out, no direct flight from Pg to Sg, need to go to KL for transit. blink.gif

While Airasia, Tiget, Jetstar as well as Silkair got direct flight from Pg to Sg.
So passenger choose what airlines in this situation?
So obvious.



cherroy
post Jun 19 2013, 04:57 PM

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Also I applaud MAS ticketing, same across across be it Saturday, holidays season or not.

While some other airlines mark up the price in holidays season, or peak travelling date.

As passenger, very good, but in business sense, another story.
cherroy
post Jun 19 2013, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(Madbull @ Jun 19 2013, 05:03 PM)
If money is not a problem, will you travel by AA or Mas? What i think is MAS has it market but how do they manage to keep it profitable...long haul is usually losing money and national carrier has no choice but to continue..unlike AA can cut the route if losing money..
*
I want to choose MAS, but there is no direct flight from pg to sg. doh.gif

cherroy
post Jun 21 2013, 04:59 PM

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Wah, giant rabbit hit the tree of Bkawan.

Mega durian runtuh.

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