QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 11:53 AM)
I do not know why Malaysia is so unique and powerful that can overrule US changes in rates.
But according to the bankers I know of , told me Malaysia has impacted more or less in the long run......
Interest rate or overnight rate (OPR) is set by BNM and controlled by respective central bank.
How bond pricing or yield generally (if do not move too drastically) generally won't affect the overnight rate, unless central bank is powerless to control the movement.
Aka if your interest rate too high, massive hot money flow in causing currency shooting drastically
or
interest rate too low vs bond pricing, massive outflow causing exchange rate plummeting like 97.
In this situation only the market force can force central bank to act.
But since 97, capital market is not as open and free like last time, aka no limit, no control on how money being TT out/in etc,
, so a good capital control measurement can reduce this kind of issue.
Since 2008 crisis, we can see a free and open movement of capital can cause more harm than good.
That's why Malaysia can have 3% while US interest remain at zero, and there is no massive hot money pouring in, causing RM to shoot up to the roof.
Yes, impact will be there, but if local liquidity is enough, and domestic economy condition is intact, it shouldn't cause any major issue.
That's why I do not see how BNM can opt to hike in interest rate, particularly GDP number is becoming less and less, last month export is shrinking, IPI is weak. And many businesses out there already complain sluggish sales.
Domestic interest rate is to cater domestic economy activities, this is the primary function of the interest rate.
This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 18 2013, 12:54 PM