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 EPF DIVIDEND, EPF

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Cubalagi
post Jan 31 2023, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 31 2023, 11:14 AM)
user posted image

Have a look and make your own conjecture.
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So what year was payout more than earnings?

Cubalagi
post Jan 31 2023, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 31 2023, 11:25 AM)
Look at the dividends vs earnings.
Some years do not seem to match.

FY10 vs FY11 Not much dividend change in spite of big earnings increase
FY15 vs FY16  Drastic reduction although not much earnings difference
FY17 vs FY18  Another big dividend cut although not much earnings difference
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I believe the chart you showed is dividend rate (%) and dividend payout in RM, not earnings.
Cubalagi
post Jan 31 2023, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Jan 31 2023, 11:51 AM)
EPF has paid out more than it earned before... unfortunately I cannot recall which year...

i did the exercise (a while back before covid even ... the office was so boring that I entertained myself with silly work) just to find it out, but had to go through the annual reports of each year.
There were also articles previous from EPF that literally said they smooth out the payoff to pay for a rainy day.
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Its quite confirmed that they normally pay less than they earn. If we can identify when they actually pay more than that would be an interesting data point.

Just calculating based on info shared 2019-2021 (3 years)where Malaysia had 2 govts PH and PN.

Year Profits (RM) Div Payout (RM) Payout ratio %

2019 50.3 45.82 91
2020 61 47.64 78.1
2021 67.05 56.7 84.6


Cubalagi
post Jan 31 2023, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Jan 31 2023, 12:41 PM)
Oooo... they kept 28 billion of reserve just from these 3 years? oooo....

now my hope is going up... PMX will be stupid not to give 7% div now.  hmm.gif  brows.gif

tongue.gif 
(too early to day-dream? haha)
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Have to remember that the profits are actually gross. Have to minus EPF admin expenses as well.

N I dont think they will tap into any reserve. It will set a bad precedent. Between 2019-2021 dividends, there were 3 Prime Minsiters and payout still within revenue.

At best, hopefully a 90+% payout this year. Considering last quarter wasnt good for all markets, Im still expecting a low 5% divvy.


Cubalagi
post Feb 3 2023, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Feb 3 2023, 12:09 PM)
Came back here  to get the latest news on the important %. Not much chit chats this time. Strange.

One thing came to mind the other day. Hope the accounting/economic/money gurus here can help.

Say EPF only invests in one foreign share A. Q1, Q2 and Q3 results are all very good. But Q4 turns out very bad, negative.

A. Is annual return the sum of Q1, Q2, Q3 & Q4?

B. Or annual return =  the difference between end of year and start of year balances? I think it should be this.

C. Problem with A is, Q1, Q2 & Q3 results may be very good due to the favourable exchange rate. But that gains are not realised at the end of the year when the exchange takes a big hit?

Cheerio.
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EPF calculates based on realised gains or loss. So the gain is realized only when they sell Stock A, at whatever exchange rate it was sold at.

If the stock is down but they didnt sell the stock, they will mark the value down and take the mark down as a loss.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 3 2023, 03:22 PM
Cubalagi
post Feb 4 2023, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Feb 4 2023, 09:59 AM)
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Not necessary it will reflect market prices at end of quarter. The mark down is internal policy. We dont know the actual parameters and when its triggered. We just know that they regualry practice it as some quarters they will say XX billion is write down.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 4 2023, 10:38 AM
Cubalagi
post Feb 4 2023, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ Feb 4 2023, 03:23 PM)
Nais, you are getting about 20% dividends then?
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Last 1 year, Maybank paid 56 sen dividends. So if cost is RM3, then its 18.6%.


Cubalagi
post Feb 4 2023, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ Feb 4 2023, 03:36 PM)
It's a shame that I only started investing very recently. Could have picked up some good dividend stocks early but I was too focused on starting my own business.

Happy for you man.
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Very recently as in when?

Maybank was going quite cheap in 2020, u could have got it at say 7.20, which would now give u 7.77% yield


Cubalagi
post Feb 4 2023, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(gooroojee @ Feb 4 2023, 04:57 PM)
Not that straightforward to calculate your total ROI on dividend stocks, as you need to check purchase date, purchase value, annualized returns on your dividends after tax, and total returns after including the capital gains/losses based on your purchase date(s).

Imagine buying it 10 years ago for RM10. Guess how much your ROI is today in terms of IRR, or annualized rate.
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Stock like Maybank cannot buy blindly at whatever price


Cubalagi
post Feb 7 2023, 08:41 PM

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QUOTE(Ankle @ Feb 7 2023, 05:54 PM)
Interestingly EPF owns a whopping 14 pct of Maybank.
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They own bigger stake in RHB bank tho..41%.


Cubalagi
post Feb 10 2023, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 10 2023, 01:40 PM)
Just for kicks...

last year GDP for malaysia up 8.7%

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...expands-7-in-4q

"For the entire 2022, Malaysia's GDP expanded 8.7% as compared to 3.1% in 2021."

Does this mean EPF dividend up to 8.x% is also possible? smile.gif
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Nope..

Simply because EPF is not invested in GDP, a statstical measure.

EPF is invested in mostly bonds and stocks, with a little bit of private equity and development. Its dividends will be based on the returns generated by these assets.

Cubalagi
post Feb 12 2023, 06:06 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 12 2023, 01:57 PM)
why same and why diff?

different managers and different mandates rite?
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The main reason is that EPF diversified aggressively abroad starting from about 2012. It was able to profit from the historic bull market in US equities and also benefit from the falling MYR over the period.

Asx was much slower going abroad.

Additionally, during this period EPF became more aggressive in terms of equities allocation. Basically transformed from a conservative fund of about 30% Malaysian equities to a balanced fund of about 50% equities allocation (and all the increase went to foreign equities and more).

Asx started already being aggressive about 70% Malaysian equities, and with the sub par performance of Malaysian equities since 2015, they were stuck, but continued to pay nice dividends which wasnt sustainable.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 12 2023, 06:11 PM
Cubalagi
post Feb 12 2023, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 12 2023, 02:11 PM)
yeah, didn't really follow tabung haji story, but has it resolved the investment hole issue already?
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Already bailed out during PH 1.0.

So was able to restart, but now after being burned, has become very conservativs in terms of risk. So dont expect high returns from TH anymore.

Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2023, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Feb 14 2023, 01:15 PM)
I think MYEG capital lost about 40-50% since the news broke out.
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Not more than 35%.



Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2023, 07:17 AM

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QUOTE(Wolves @ Feb 17 2023, 12:51 AM)
I agree it's high but if you not 48 or 49, you cannot withdraw later when things changed. I suddenly don't have much confidence that the gov won't aim at the money lo with all these ppl asking for one off one off withdrawal. PN ppl really make me scare especially when they do race card. I think i might be emo and panick fast. Hopefully my feelings go away. Emo these few days.
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Emotions and financial decisions are usually bad combination.

Edit to add..Personally, I believe ppl need diversification. EPF is great, but its not my only retirement savings. I have my own portfolio of DIY financial investments (which are not govt funds) and properties. Many ppl will have similar.



This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 17 2023, 08:05 AM
Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2023, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(KIP21 @ Feb 17 2023, 09:45 AM)
1. CommodoreAmiga - 5.3%
2. netcrawler - 6.0%
3. Mroys@lyn - 5.25%
4. Xander2k8 - 5.25%
5. romuluz777 - 5.65%
6. optional1988 - 5.8%
7. ikanbilis - 5.5%
8. Human Nature - 5.55%
9. Unkerpanjang - 1.0%, wife oledi taken anything in excess.
10. prophetjul - 5.75...
11. honsiong - 7.2%
12. Wolves - 5.25%
13. lembu goreng - 5.85%
14. dani - 4.25%
15. HolyCooler - 5.9%
16. roarus - 5.5%
17. emilyngsc - 5.14%
18. Aaron212 - 5.8%
19. Ankle - 5.45%
20. kechung - 5.40%
21. Asali - 5.50%
22. oks911 - 6.05%
23. ronnie - 5.2%
24. wongmunkeong - 6.15%
25. nexona88 - 5.5%
26. BboyDora - 5.5%
27. popice2u - 5.25%
28. akhito- 5.7%
29. Capt. Marble - 5.6%
30. jutamind - 5%
31. Contestchris - 5.65%
32. Kip21 - 5.75%
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I want to see expected RM amount, not percentage, can?


Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2023, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Feb 17 2023, 11:44 AM)

10. prophetjul - 5.75...Rm5,750

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Don't belip..u probably RM575,000.

Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2023, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Feb 17 2023, 01:37 PM)
i TOTALLY SUPPORT!  thumbup.gif
For discussion sake: In Bolihland, anything can and will happen.
If gov announced that by 31st March 2023, no withdrwals are allowed till age 65, what would you do tomorrow?
Assuming you are 60 now?
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I dont think they suddenly go from 55 to 65. However, i wont be suprised if 55 become 60, within the next 10 years.

Anyway, my current plan for EPF is to select the monthly withdrawal option when I retire, which is probably at age 60. So I probably wont do anything.



Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2023, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 17 2023, 03:04 PM)
Don't do the monthly withdrawal option.... i remember (this is a while back) a old colleague who retired complained to us youngster that he choose the monthly withdrawal option to only find out that the entire amount earmarked for the monthly withdrawal for that year no longer earn interest.

best you go verify this first before selecting monthly withdrawal if this is still the case.
(I didn't verify this of cos... how to when I am not even at 55 years old).
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Oh didnt know that..will need to verify. Still several years to reach decision date.




Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2023, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(Wolves @ Feb 17 2023, 08:36 PM)
I believe for anybody over the age of 55. I was looking at kwsp not long ago to figure it out as well. When hit 50, you can request one time withdrawal from account 1 (i think) for either partial or full withdrawal (anytime from age 50 to 54.999 but one time and one time only). When you hit 55, both account 1 and account 2 will merge to become account 55 where you can withdraw full or partial (anytime and unlimited time/amount until 0) or opt for the monthly withdrawal (which is what they are talking about) and if you continue to work, your kwsp contributions from work will go into akaun emas where you can withdraw at 60. So they are saying if you opt for monthly payment of 2000 per month (example), 1st jan of every year, 24k will be deducted from the balance and that 24k is not earning interest/dividend.
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50 yo withdrawal.is from Account 2 (all.of account 2 or partial).



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