Nobody cares about EPF anymore?

EPF RECORDS RM39.31 BILLION GROSS INVESTMENT INCOME FOR 9M 2022

Source:

KWSP/EPF

Sinchew

This post has been edited by TOS: Dec 5 2022, 06:59 PM

Hi there.

I am not sure where you obtain the 700m, 100m, 1000m and 120m numbers from. I can't reproduce those numbers after rounding up the figures in EPF's offciail statements or Sinchew's reports. It would be nice if you could clarify the source of those figures. Thanks.

I can roughly understand your point on the return calculations. I believe you are trying to make a case that to compute return (in percentage), the asset growth (denominator) matters as well, not just the returns (numerator). You can compute contribution inflow increment qoq by comparing 1H/Q2 EPF's results announcement vs Q3. I obtain 20.38 billion MYR (63.61-43.23 = 20.38). AUM reduced 3.76 billion MYR qoq (961.01-957.25) however, depite the total gross investment income for Q3 was some 12.32 billion MYR and USD has appreciated vs MYR. This is most likely due to increased withdrawals from member in Q3 though no such mentions were made in both sources quoted. Since EPF does not provide the net asset inflow (contribution - withdrawal - refund) qoq, we can't deduce the returns either.

I don't think it's wise to compute returns on a qoq basis as market conditions fluctuate more frequently than that. Moreover, EPF does not measure return "per headcount". It's total investment assets and the returns generated by those assets that matter.

Hope that helps.

Well. Clearly, you can just the actual data published in the reports.

You may use AUM (asset under management) as a good approximation. Assume 4Q total gross investment income is the same as 3Q, then for the full year it would be 61.63 billion MYR. Divide that number by AUM of 961.01 billion MYR, the gross investment return % is about 6.42%.

But we are using a gross figure here. You will need to adjust for expenditures and unrealized income/loses to get the net distributions payable to EPF members. Also 4Q AUM may fluctuate as well due to various factors like currency, contributions/withdrawals etc. Lastly, market factors will influence the investment performance.

Anyway, looking at historical payouts, EPF's investment returns are indeed around 5-6% p.a.. Dividend distributions are subject to a lot of factors, politics being the one that is out of their control. I won't comment on that.

How do they value them on the financial statements?

Yup makes sense indeed. Good info bro. Thanks.

https://www.sinchew.com.my/20230124/%e7%96%...9c%ba%e4%bc%9a/

Original Berita Harian article: https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/...luang-pelaburan

Just having fun with statistics...



Not sure what sort of distribution is this... Looks like normal distribution but somewhat skewed...

Anyway, Python code attached:



The code is not "professional". Feel free to edit as you like.

This post has been edited by TOS: Feb 16 2023, 08:41 PM

This one looks better!

People call him ikan paus for a reason.

4th of March. EPF will announce their annual result performance to media at 12.30 pm in their new HQ at Kwasa Damansara.

https://www.sinchew.com.my/20230301/%e5%85%...81%af%e7%8e%87/

These stats are impressive numbers at the least.

This post has been edited by TOS: Mar 4 2023, 01:00 PM

Dividend is the last part of today's talk according to the slides.

This post has been edited by TOS: Mar 4 2023, 01:10 PM

Refresh and it works.

This post has been edited by TOS: Mar 4 2023, 01:15 PM

This post has been edited by TOS: Mar 4 2023, 01:19 PM