yeah fully agree, who cares abt the distinction......

we can be both at the same time Or one at a time.....so just choose which 1....

investors also got sell la . ...

as Deng say ... "“I don't care if it's a white cat or a black cat. It's a good cat as long as it catches mice."

Hmm, my realized gain is only about 4k. I almost never sell.

Don't play play.... Pana jie's small condo cost easily above RM 1 M... :-)

Hey mate,

I remember you. You are the one with 50 biji Bkawan 1.

So how's your portfolio goin? Any accumulation?

ok, i tembak some pointers i can recall , remember me newbie ya .

let's see what we are buying ... at 1.9x .

* cash 35xm (so basically about 70% of stock price is in cash ) . zero debts.
* ~>1500 acres landbanks (Penang, Kedah, Klang Valley, Johor). Sufficient to last them 10 years if they slowly built.
* The most interesting landbank that I find is the Penang landbank in Balik Pulau. It's size should be sufficient for a large scale landed development.
* Tanjung Bungah Beach Hotel. Book value 17m (in year 2001) . Hotel closed for renovation now yea... all block block, cannot see but last time they say they were suppose to build a service apartment beside this hotel . So maybe reno + slowly clearing for this development ?

valuations: * ttm per 7.x , price / nta of 0.6 .

* conservative company , don't expect rapid expansions like HuaYang, MahSing, Tambun .
* look at their margins ... very high. possible because of old landbanks ... ? is not like they sell their houses super ex. they can't anyway to fight the branded SPS and MAHSING. net margins was 20+ and latest > 30+ %. net margins SPS 15%, MAHSING 12% .
* low in dividends. you can expect 5 cents. highest was 8 cents last year and likely not repeated. so about FD rates lo.
*company rated 7.5 STARS in latest dynaquest (highest in prop sector).

* a very high spike in inventory in latest q report.... from 2m to 20m . they took out fd for it. the last time they have a inventory like this was in year 2008. why ? no idea.
* growth as you say cannot be seem . yes . if got high profit growth , you think can get now at 1.9x ar ?

This post has been edited by GregPG01: Sep 3 2012, 11:22 PM

Attached File(s)
 OnG_cimb_030912.pdf ( 487.29k ) Number of downloads: 48

my paper gain, realised profit n divvy so far this year is 16% of my portfolio..

investor - buy good stock when it drop

trader - chase uptrend

I am extremely happy to see a reply from you. Thanks.
This will be a rather long reply and I hope I don't get any unwanted comments of it being long. Yes, please don't read if you think I am windtalking.

Greg, I put my earlier posting side by side with your valued comments, for easy reference.

I understand your way of thinking. It's quite impressive and please don't bluff me that you are a newbie. Haha!
Plenitude is fitting all the said 'requirements' to be an investment pick.

The main points both of us have pointed is there. Basically the same.
1. High cash balances. I should have put in bold the exact amount. My bad. RM350++ million is a huge improvement compared to what Plenitude had in 2007. However, I am not one who is impressed with high cash on hand. What good is the money if the company does not spend it wisely? Either, they give more back to its shareholders or they embark on new projects. Sitting on too much cash is a waste. It tells me the management has not got any good plans or idea for their money.
2. Dividends. I called the company stingy. Kiam Sap!
Maybe that was blunt but in the stock market, you need to be blunt la. Haha!
In year 2010 it paid 15 sen.
In year 2011 it paid twice but total paid is only 8 sen.
In year 2012, belum ada. No indication from its earnings report.
Why? Are we going to see a big one come Oct 2012?
In its defense, one would say in 2011, Plenitude had its bonus issue. Therefor, the amount it paid in dividends was actually more. Total paid was 21.6 million. In 2010, it paid 20.25 million. A slight improvement.
Is that enough? No because last year Plenitude was left holding 330+ million in its banks.
Which is why I called it stingy. With more than 330+ million in its bank, Plenitude only paid 21 million. This is no good enough. The extra money is just sitting in the bank, feeding the bankers. Why?
Haha.. of course, you could easily argue again that even if Plenitude kiam sap-ly pay another 21 million, this would equal to around 7.8 sen or 8 sen in dividends this fiscal year. 8 sen, is not that bad considering the price of Plenitude is only 1.90++ or as you said, it's about FD rates. But if it is about FD rates, why invest in Plenitude? Better invest in FD. It's more safe.
3. The stock is trading at a huge discount compared to its NTA/RNAV.
This has always been the case for Plenitude. Look into your Dynaquest book (I don't have one) and check the pre-2005 datas. What was the discount then? 65%?
Point is, I do not think this point is a strong case to invest. The discount has always been there for many years.
4. Earnings.
Let me add in a few more years of Plenitude's earnings.
2004 - 47.3
2005 - 49
2006 - 52.4
2007 - 56.5
2008 - 78.7
2009 - 79.7
2010 - 84.2
2011 - 89.5
2012 - 72.3 ( very latest numbers)
How would you describe the earnings?
I would say base on the numbers alone, this company has a solid earnings growth since 2004. With a very pivotal fy2008, where the earnings really jumped. Would you say the stock moved much higher because of its earnings and not based on its 'NTA/RNAV discount'?
Another way that one could describe the numbers 'after 8 years of consistent growth, the growth appears to have ended in 2012'.

Here lies the main problem. You called the company a conservative company, which is correct since this too is how the company describes itself to the public.
Conservative is good but in the stock market, it can be a negative because fund managers would see the company as lacking. Lacking drive, lacking ambition, inability to deliver.
My original description was "Even if don't include 2012 earnings, the last four years, Plenitude earnings is growing but at an extremely slow pace, underperforming most property stocks."
Plenitude's simply underperformed most property stocks.
Use the 2 year charts. Compare HuaYang or even Asas Dunia with Plenitude.
Why these other property stocks charts so sui? Why Plenitude chart so yucky?
Why no other fund managers see?
Why no other investors read Dynaquests ratings on Plenitude? Them FM no money to buy that book?
Why Plenitude chart so lousy?
Could the answer be earnings?

Take Asas. It's earnings the other day. How many percent increase?
This is Hua Yang's 5 year track record: http://huayang.listedcompany.com/fin_highlights.html

Compare to Plentitude earnings.
See the huge difference? Yes, Plenitude can call themselves as being conservative but any good fund managers would be quick to point out that Plenitude's earnings is really underperforming other property stocks.
Isn't it so clear that earnings is much more important than the price discount over the NTA?
With good earnings growth, stock is going to fly.
Hua Yang's two year charts: http://www.shareinvestor.com.my/charts.pl?...history&id=5062

Plenitude's two year charts: http://www.shareinvestor.com.my/charts.pl?...history&id=5075


Reading materials?
http://hongwei85.blogspot.com/2011/10/plenitude-2011.html

There was this blog posting commenting on Plenitude vs Asas Dunia: http://sleepwellinvesting.blogspot.com/201...asas-dunia.html
Blogger, Conservative Investor declared in Dec 2011 that Plenitude is the big winner. The smart choice.
Interestingly, despite the good analysis, the current result showed that Asas Dunia is the clear winner.
Asas Dunia two year chart: http://www.shareinvestor.com.my/charts.pl?...history&id=5975

Plenitude's two year charts: http://www.shareinvestor.com.my/charts.pl?...history&id=5075


I feel earnings is one big driving factor. If the earnings is not good, the stock will not move. I think this theory holds for Plenitude too. Unless Plenitude earnings shows fantastic growth again, the stock is most likely not going to move.

Finding a stock that qualifies all the investing yardsticks is useful but more thought must be given. A stock with declining prospects could easily fit the yardsticks at a given time and an unsuspecting investor could see their investment turn into a really long wait, waiting for the stock to recover.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 4 2012, 10:22 AM

@ Boon,

We had lot of discussions ( rather separate thread ) for Huayang .

Kinda intensive discussions way back into Year 2010/2011 at rm One.

We trusted Huayang would do well based on one simple concept, they build houses for the needy.

I wonder where, why and how u were not around ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Sep 4 2012, 09:47 AM

Me? I was way too busy back then. A lot of stuff to take care. Nowadays, have more time to shake legs and wind talk.

Thank you. Great to have you here.

But investments are kinda forward looking.

Cannot really say Huayang continue to be very good, and Plenitude to be no good.

First one is considered to be far more conservative than the other.

Keeping large cash pile could be good if u look back into the history.

Those prop stocks like IOIprop and Setia survived through crisis due to large cash pile kept.

People have more or less forgotten Cash Crunch did happen in Boelehland and Asia before.

But Boom and Bust are parts of a cycle, could be prolonged, never be permanent.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Sep 4 2012, 10:45 AM

Well said sky

But Boon did made a correct statement. Plenitude management is way too conservative, they should take advantage of booming in real estate during year 2010, instead of sitting on a comfortable position. The last i look at its annual report, the company is run by several accountants based director if i'm not mistaken, now i know why

What do you think about current situation of property market in Malaysia?

Maybe Investors got wrong judgments .

There are always conservative fund vs aggressive fund designed for appropriate risks.

If u are ultra aggressive type , and buy conservative stocks, then it is judgement problem.

I also want FD to give me back 8% pa, can boh

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Sep 4 2012, 11:14 AM

好的投资通常都很闷的，或许他们在筹划不久的房产泡沫。等待时机大量买进。 =）

I agree that investments are very forward looking.
I base my criteria on two issues.
1. Judging their current/past performance.
2. Evaluating their future plans.

For Plenitude.
1. Judging their current/past performance.
Comparisons made against other property developers.
Other property developers have shown tremendous earnings growth.
Plenitude haven't. Again in its defense, it claims to be conservative.
This 'conservative' issue is actually acceptable. A company can always be conservative and they can still do ok.
But from a stock market point of view, the minute we buy a share, we take a risk and my thinking is if I have to take a risk, why don't I take a risk with a company that I know is aggressive in its sales? Taking a risk on a conservative company might only deliver me conservative results.
This is something I don't fancy.
Bottom line from the earlier posting, Plenitude has underperformed when compared to other property stocks during a time when property prices have risen across the board.

2. Evaluating their future plans.
Plenitude is conservative. There lies the exact problem once again.
Because it is conservative, Plenitude hardly even gives any press conferences.
Without no news, how does one know what is happening?
I google news search on Hua Yang. Hua Yang, and straight away I can read a news on Star that Hua Yang is allocating 300m to buy land and then Bernama news has an article on Hua Yang planning a 815 million property launch.
But when I do a google news search on Plenitude, I get nothing! Plenitude
How then do I want to evaluate Plenitude's future?

For a property company, isn't it important that their company is always in the news?
By being in the news, the company is advertising their homes and property hunters knows what type of homes they sell.
If the property hunters don't know, how to expect that company to sell their home well?
And the investor can also make some judgement based on these type of news.
But we have no news from Plenitude.

If I add 1+2 up, I do not have any confidence at all with Plenitude. Not at this moment of time. In the future, of course, my thinking and mindset can always change.

Bro. My thinking of too much cash is consistent with Panamy. I am sure you can recall my comments against it. It's the same for Plenitude.
Plenitude can easily make me very wrong by declaring a bumper dividend this Oct.

haha, those days I promoted Huayang at rm One until tongue always dropped on the floor.

99% of the investors could not see my point.

In the end, I also lost confidence in this stock and sold at around rm 1.50 , became the 100th% to say Huayang was not very good.

BTW, Cash is good IF u could see the next bust cycle in properties

aka no absolute one for all type of judgment for Cash pile.

If u like asset allocation model, then u see my point.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Sep 4 2012, 11:25 AM

btw, Hua yang is still way too undervalue.