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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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yok70
post Jul 3 2013, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 3 2013, 09:31 PM)
Easy... no one wants to hold risk during the break before Friday.
When Friday comes, the UE numbers could swing the market either way.

I'm staying neutral, holding cash is better. I jump right back in once the direction is established.
We still got upside move and lots of downside risk and lots of money at the sidelines at the 2nd half to pour in.

Today halfday trading only.. so, I'm closing shop early too.  Nothing attractive here.. but
interesting to each is AAPL. We got support now a 400-420 level. If this dips back to low 400, just BUY it.

AAPL recent hired of YSL ex-CEO (Paul Deneve) is interesting. It goes to show that AAPL is going to focus the next big thing on wearables.  wink.gif
*
rebound. market is so unpredictable. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 4 2013, 12:44 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 3 2013, 11:59 PM)
rebound. market is so unpredictable.  biggrin.gif
*
Wau... surprise too. I guess the ADP numbers were good enough for some to put their money back in.

But, I'm staying out till Friday. 15 mins to close shop. laugh.gif


countdown
post Jul 5 2013, 09:00 PM

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the UE rate is higher meaning more ppl do not hv jobs (nett job loss), so what it increases to 195k, the retrenchment or etc might be 300k,400k and etc.........very confusing... rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by countdown: Jul 5 2013, 09:28 PM
danmooncake
post Jul 5 2013, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Jul 5 2013, 09:00 PM)
the UE rate is higher meaning more ppl do not hv jobs (nett job loss), so what it increases to 195k, the retrenchment or etc might be 300k,400k and etc.........very confusing... rclxub.gif
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Don't worry abot UE 7.6%. But, the non-farm payroll numbers are good. Both May and April numbers are revised higher!

Buy signal here for equities, dump bonds and gold.
danmooncake
post Jul 5 2013, 09:50 PM

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Oh uh...WTI Oil now at 101, Brent at 105, spread is less than $5 now.
Rboc gas (aug 13) at 2.85. Got 3 more weeks to catch up. sweat.gif

But, AAPL dips is buying opportunity. I'm in! laugh.gif

GLL also working.. ($100 support is good!), now going back up! rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 5 2013, 10:30 PM
yok70
post Jul 6 2013, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 5 2013, 09:29 PM)
Don't worry abot UE 7.6%. But, the non-farm payroll numbers are good. Both May and April numbers are revised higher!

Buy signal here for equities, dump bonds and gold.
*
bonds yield goes crazy! 3% on its way! bad for yield stocks? sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 6 2013, 12:22 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 6 2013, 12:01 AM)
bonds yield goes crazy! 3% on its way! bad for yield stocks?  sweat.gif
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No, not necessarily for all yield stocks.

Bad for home builders and mortgage stocks - yes because they fear people may not buy homes because of rising interest rates.

US mortgage for 30 year has gone up to 4.4% (risen 0.02) from last week.


danmooncake
post Jul 6 2013, 12:27 AM

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On the same note for rising Oil price.. alternative energy like Solar is good for long side play (short term only).

Take a look at FSLR, YGE, JASO, LDK and CSIQ etc.. wink.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 6 2013, 12:37 AM
yok70
post Jul 6 2013, 12:51 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2013, 12:27 AM)
On the same note for rising Oil price.. alternative energy like Solar is good for long side play (short term only).

Take a look at  FSLR, YGE, JASO, LDK and CSIQ etc..  wink.gif
*
interesting. thanks. thumbup.gif
countdown
post Jul 6 2013, 12:55 AM

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SCTY might be not in sync...
yok70
post Jul 6 2013, 12:57 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2013, 12:22 AM)
No, not necessarily for all yield stocks.

Bad for home builders and mortgage stocks - yes because they fear people may not buy homes because of rising interest rates.

US mortgage for 30 year has gone up to 4.4% (risen 0.02) from last week.
*
Is it because bond is pretty much as risky as yield stocks? Unlike the situation in Malaysia's bond, many even at fixed rate.

Which US bank is good to ride the recovery? I thought WFC is good for major property recovery, but it's at top valuation among US banks now. BAC and Citi seems cheap, but do they have good chance for aggressive growth potential? Their share price has such a huge gap comparing to before the crisis. laugh.gif



danmooncake
post Jul 6 2013, 02:09 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 6 2013, 12:57 AM)
Is it because bond is pretty much as risky as yield stocks? Unlike the situation in Malaysia's bond, many even at fixed rate.

Which US bank is good to ride the recovery? I thought WFC is good for major property recovery, but it's at top valuation among US banks now. BAC and Citi seems cheap, but do they have good chance for aggressive growth potential? Their share price has such a huge gap comparing to before the crisis.  laugh.gif
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No, bond is actually safer than risky assets like stocks. The yield for bond is fix if you hold it till maturity. nod.gif

I don't know which US bank is good to ride now.. but recovery is already here and any upside could be limited - just my opinion,
if interest rate rise.. I don't know if banks can make more money if less people willing to borrow.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 6 2013, 02:11 AM
yok70
post Jul 6 2013, 02:49 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2013, 02:09 AM)
No, bond is actually safer than risky assets like stocks. The yield for bond is fix if you hold it till maturity.  nod.gif

I don't know which US bank is good to ride now.. but recovery is already here and any upside could be limited - just my opinion,
if interest rate rise.. I don't know if banks can make more money if less people willing to borrow.
*
I see. Thanks! icon_rolleyes.gif

btw, bull continues tonight. While everyone anxiously looking for volatile market this year, market may surprise everyone by showing full year bull. laugh.gif
nice play on Apple you sold at 420. Later may buy back at lower price. brows.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 6 2013, 02:50 AM
danmooncake
post Jul 6 2013, 08:31 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 6 2013, 02:49 AM)
I see. Thanks!  icon_rolleyes.gif

btw, bull continues tonight. While everyone anxiously looking for volatile market this year, market may surprise everyone by showing full year bull.  laugh.gif
nice play on Apple you sold at 420. Later may buy back at lower price.  brows.gif
*
Already, I went back into AAPL because it falls to my buy price again at 415-416 level.
Got some calls again, going to hold over the weekend. Hopefully can repeat again next week (will sell near 420).

Trading AAPL must be quick.. every pops near round up to +$5, just sell it and repeat. laugh.gif


Myoswee
post Jul 6 2013, 09:19 AM

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Main index finally close above 50 day MA

Melt up continues i guess cool2.gif
Macrusin
post Jul 6 2013, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2013, 09:31 AM)
Already, I went back into AAPL because it falls to my buy price again at 415-416 level.
Got some calls again, going to hold over the weekend. Hopefully can repeat again next week (will sell near 420).

Trading AAPL must be quick.. every pops near round up to +$5, just sell it and repeat.  laugh.gif
*
Mean right now it is a good timing to purchase APPLE stock to make short term profit?
danmooncake
post Jul 7 2013, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ Jul 6 2013, 04:47 PM)
Mean right now it is a good timing to purchase APPLE stock to make short term profit?
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I can only see a very short term opportunity for AAPL trade. Once I see profit, I'll exit or it falls below my stop loss.

The bear rout for smartphone market started for AAPL, has gone over to Samsung and HTC as well.
Recent report that Samsung also experiencing slower smartphone growth. Profits also slide for HTC.

Basically, the industry is seeing saturation now.

We need the next big thing for AAPL so that it can propel itself upwards again. nod.gif


Macrusin
post Jul 7 2013, 06:13 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 7 2013, 01:46 PM)
I can only see a very short term opportunity for AAPL trade. Once I see profit, I'll exit or it falls below my stop loss.

The bear rout for smartphone market started for AAPL, has gone over to Samsung and HTC as well.
Recent report that Samsung also experiencing slower smartphone growth.  Profits also slide for HTC.

Basically, the industry is seeing saturation now.

We need the next big thing for AAPL so that it can propel itself upwards again.  nod.gif
*
Agree for what you said, profits has been slowly slide to HTC.
Samsung & Apple is slowing down unless something new invented.
I think there will be more and more people move to HTC & Sony.
danmooncake
post Jul 7 2013, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ Jul 7 2013, 06:13 PM)
I think there will be more and more people move to HTC & Sony.
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Maybe, but it may not matter much if people who choose another brand or model of phones are the same group
who already own smartphone.

The market wants to see a new group of people who doesn't own a mobile phone or
smartphone yet, perhaps the XYZ company can tap into a new market area. Only this could move a stock big time. wink.gif



yok70
post Jul 7 2013, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ Jul 7 2013, 06:13 PM)
Agree for what you said, profits has been slowly slide to HTC.
Samsung & Apple is slowing down unless something new invented.
I think there will be more and more people move to HTC & Sony.
*
I don't understand what made you think that HTC and Sony could grab some market shares from Apple and Samsung. What advantage do they have? Cheaper? Or more innovative? Please enlighten me. biggrin.gif

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