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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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Myoswee
post Nov 14 2012, 08:57 AM

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Looks like latest trend is buy at opening, sell at european close, then buy back at close. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Nov 14 2012, 11:00 AM

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I just read that AAPL just recently won the patent its rectangular shape and rounded edge iPADs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-ipad-...nt-2012-11?op=1


So, if any makers of other tablets try to make their tablet shaped like AAPL, they will be sued...

How absurd...indeed. doh.gif


Added on November 15, 2012, 12:09 amTesting SP500 1363-1365 short term floor tonight...7% correction from top.
Early bulls probably step in.. biggrin.gif


Added on November 15, 2012, 4:30 amObama speaks again.. bulls abandoned positions.. bears took over. $SPX= 1358... going lower. wink.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 15 2012, 04:31 AM
netmask8
post Nov 15 2012, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 13 2012, 11:45 PM)
Greetings + G'Day,

    I think, CASH will be KING again in 1st and 2nd Qtr of year 2013.. Adviced my friends/colleagues to lock profits after 2 weeks QE3 annoucement,
to sell all non-performing USA stocks, put the CASH in FD @ monthly rate for 6-8 mths and continue to hold good blue-chips dividend counters.

My US-based MNC company business order/demand drop 30% per last qrtr and 45% per last 2 qrtr while my
friend US-based MNC company business order/demand drop more than 60%.. Many US companies HOLD their orders/investment
and to watch how fiscal cliff will take affect beginning year 2013...  Hence, the earnings/financial reporting
for next coming 2 qrtrs will be disappointed and usually, weak earnings = market slump = VIX > 30pts = CASH is KING..
Poor Earnings will leads to cost cuttings, unemployment, conservative/pessimism business, weak investor confidence and ..etc

Best MEGA SALES picks for past 5 years were 6th March and 9th March 2009. Hope it will repeat again and everyone hope to
get good MEGA Sales Discount. Optimism of X'Mas and New Year 2013 Sales will be opposite.

Worry = Recession in US for 1st/2nd Qrtr and Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P, Fitch) downgrade USA Debt Grade level.

Have a great day.
*
Greetngs + G'Day,

I think, lock profit will be ideal case b4 too late to exit..

Main Worry = 1) Recession in US for next 1st and 2nd Qrtr in year 2013 and 2) Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P, Fitch) downgrade USA Debt Grade level.

Fiscal Cliff agenda = Reduce Country Deficits / Debt per GDP ratio which seen good positive for long-run, but the economy
will be flat/stagnation/deflation(smiliar to Japan) for long run. Slow inflation may be good for the US economy.

Have a great day.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Nov 15 2012, 10:27 AM
Myoswee
post Nov 15 2012, 08:41 AM

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Ultimate short squeeze on FB +13%

Time to enter the short again tongue.gif


danmooncake
post Nov 15 2012, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Nov 15 2012, 08:41 AM)
Ultimate short squeeze on FB +13%

Time to enter the short again  tongue.gif
*
Aisha...didn't pay attention to FB, seems like I missed a good squeeze run .... UP again..... biggrin.gif

Only thing didn't tank overnight is Crude oil. Darn the Israelis causing spike again in Oil market. vmad.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 15 2012, 09:19 AM
theboringguy
post Nov 15 2012, 09:35 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 14 2012, 11:00 AM)

Added on November 15, 2012, 4:30 amObama speaks again.. bulls abandoned positions.. bears took over. $SPX= 1358... going lower.   wink.gif
*
Seriously, once Obama speaks..... sweat.gif lol~

any opinion on the fiscal cliff? Is there any way that US can do anything to turn the table around? or else it would be just downfall as taxing for biz increase~~


Added on November 15, 2012, 9:34 amOh HD tanked 3%????

This post has been edited by theboringguy: Nov 15 2012, 09:37 AM
netmask8
post Nov 15 2012, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(theboringguy @ Nov 15 2012, 09:35 AM)
Seriously, once Obama speaks..... sweat.gif  lol~

any opinion on the fiscal cliff? Is there any way that US can do anything to turn the table around? or else it would be just downfall as taxing for biz increase~~


Added on November 15, 2012, 9:34 amOh HD tanked 3%????
*
Greetings + G'Day,

Compromise Solution between Republicans and Democrats politicians on tax,spending ..etc..etc will be ideal solution since the
White House(President) and Senate(Dewan Negara) = Democrats, while Congress(Dewan Rakyat) = Republican.

If otherwise, the automatic tax hike and spending cuts and others which agreed by Mr. President,Congress Speaker
and both senior party representatives(which passed through Congress votes, Senate votes and with Obama's signature) will take affect in year 2013.

Read ==> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_cliff_debate .. My feeling is = Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P and Fitch) will
cut USA Debt/Credit Rating Grade again in year 2013(Patience wait for the Opportunity). Prefer long term investment and fundamental analysis.

Patience is Bitter, but its fruit is sweet.

Have a great day.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Nov 15 2012, 11:44 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 15 2012, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(theboringguy @ Nov 15 2012, 09:35 AM)
Seriously, once Obama speaks..... sweat.gif  lol~

any opinion on the fiscal cliff? Is there any way that US can do anything to turn the table around? or else it would be just downfall as taxing for biz increase~~


Added on November 15, 2012, 9:34 amOh HD tanked 3%????
*
HD - $64.. 21 P/E valuation too high already, must take profit-lah!
Come back down to $55-$60, then it will be bid up again. biggrin.gif

As for fiscal cliff.. knowing how they do things.. it may be the eleventh hour. or they'll just let it happen to scare the sh** out of
wall street, then after Jan 1st, Obama will announce.. hey we got a solution. Market rally like mad bulls.

I would like to see $SPX drops to 1255-1275 first.. to purge all the weak hands. brows.gif
Myoswee
post Nov 15 2012, 10:57 PM

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Aapl koyak resumes

Any knife catcher here? tongue.gif
danmooncake
post Nov 15 2012, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Nov 15 2012, 10:57 PM)
Aapl koyak resumes

Any knife catcher here? tongue.gif
*
Not me.. I used up my gloves last week. Got a minor cut but healed back after some PUTs play. sweat.gif

Now, just watching. It (AAPL) hits another low after breaking the 535 floor. If 525 cannot hold, than last chance is 515-518 (May low). Otherwise it will be waterfall.

There may be a good chance for capitulation soon.

LVS -> $40.xx it's looks like attractive again.. brows.gif


Added on November 16, 2012, 12:22 amHoardes of bears are at AAPL 525 gate now.. trying to knock this down.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 16 2012, 12:22 AM
zamans98
post Nov 16 2012, 02:04 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 14 2012, 11:00 AM)
I just read that AAPL just recently won the patent its rectangular shape and rounded edge iPADs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-ipad-...nt-2012-11?op=1
So, if any makers of other tablets try to make their tablet shaped like AAPL, they will be sued...
nah, only US court thinks so, because few hundred million income from APPLE, sure lor support 'em.
Money can buy the outright win.
yok70
post Nov 16 2012, 05:12 AM

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500 coming... brows.gif
netmask8
post Nov 16 2012, 09:17 AM

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Greetings + G'Day,

US economy is largely supported by consumption (70%) + it is not possible
to recovery if Unemployment rate remains 7.8% high. Weak Economy, huge print money/debts,
low treasuries bond demand + euro %$#$@ , recession just started again + expected
market bottom in 1st half 2013. CASH will be King again.

World 5 strongest currency would be CAD, AUD, SGD, RMB + CHF.
CAD and AUD are backed by commodities while SGD, RMB + CHF hv strong reserves.

VIX 30pts = Pour in 30% of $$ in market
VIX 35pts = Pour in another 30% $$ in market
VIX 40pts = Pour in final 30% $$ in market
VIX 45pts and above = Show Hand last final 10% $$

FORMULA = 30, 30, 30 and 10 = 100% of yr CASH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBOE_Volatility_Index

Short to Medium Term Investment

VIX = 35pts to 50pts  Masuk due to Fearful mode
VIX = 20pts and below  Keluar due to Greedy mode

Special Extraordinary Note

VIX = 50pts and above  Another doom crisis is coming .. May see another “century / life-time” opportunity coming again ?? Very hardly.

Own opinion, Own Decision, Own Action.
Note:- Do not follow the above. Thank you.

danmooncake
post Nov 16 2012, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 16 2012, 05:12 AM)
500 coming... brows.gif
*
If it happens, it would be 50% retracement from the peak..
That cliff is already pretty steep. Needs to go back up and form a right shoulder by now. wink.gif

prophetjul
post Nov 16 2012, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 16 2012, 09:17 AM)
Greetings + G'Day,

  US economy is largely supported by consumption (70%) + it is not possible
to recovery if Unemployment rate remains 7.8% high.  Weak Economy, huge print money/debts,
low treasuries bond demand + euro %$#$@ , recession just started again + expected
market bottom in 1st half 2013.  CASH will be King again.

World 5 strongest currency would be CAD, AUD, SGD, RMB + CHF.
CAD and AUD are backed by commodities while SGD, RMB + CHF hv strong reserves.

VIX 30pts            =  Pour in 30% of $$ in market
VIX 35pts            =  Pour in another 30% $$ in market
VIX 40pts            =  Pour in final 30% $$ in market
VIX 45pts and above  =  Show Hand last final 10%  $$

FORMULA  =      30, 30, 30  and 10 =    100% of yr CASH 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBOE_Volatility_Index

Short to Medium Term Investment

VIX = 35pts to  50pts                Masuk  due to Fearful mode
VIX = 20pts and below            Keluar  due to Greedy mode

Special Extraordinary Note

VIX = 50pts and above    Another doom crisis is coming .. May see another “century / life-time” opportunity coming again ??  Very hardly.

Own opinion, Own Decision, Own Action.
Note:- Do not follow the above. Thank you.
*
Interesting


http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+...urce=undefined;
danmooncake
post Nov 16 2012, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 16 2012, 09:17 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Own opinion, Own Decision, Own Action.
Note:- Do not follow the above. Thank you.
*
laugh.gif I like the final disclaimer..


Added on November 16, 2012, 11:51 am
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 16 2012, 11:05 AM)
Have you noticed that too? This time around the good old fear indicator $VIX is not useful anymore... whistling.gif


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 16 2012, 11:51 AM
netmask8
post Nov 16 2012, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 16 2012, 11:50 AM)

Have you noticed that too? This time around the good old fear indicator $VIX is not useful anymore...  whistling.gif
*
Greetings + G'Day,

VIX is referred as the fear index(or the fear gauge), it represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility. IMHO, it is still an useful fear factor level to decide whether to enter or exit the market. For the past 5 years, the opposite reverses between VIX and S&P 500 chart are quite significant.

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/VIX/tab/2

Have a great day.
danmooncake
post Nov 16 2012, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 16 2012, 12:39 PM)
Greetings + G'Day,

    VIX is referred as the fear index(or the fear gauge), it represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility. IMHO, it is still an useful fear factor level to decide whether to enter or exit the market. For the past 5 years, the opposite reverses between VIX and S&P 500 chart are quite significant.

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/VIX/tab/2

Have a great day.
*
Of course.. knew that years ago $VIX has inverse relationship with the general index.

But I am saying this time around..(just during the past 6 weeks of downturn) has anyone notice that $VIX been pretty stagnant while the market continues downwards.


netmask8
post Nov 16 2012, 09:10 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 16 2012, 08:53 PM)
Of course.. knew that years ago $VIX has inverse relationship with the general index. 

But I am saying this time around..(just during the past 6 weeks of downturn) has anyone notice that $VIX been pretty stagnant while the market continues downwards.
*
Yeap, Perhaps I think it is due to QE3 .. Hardly seeing VIX raise above 20pts unlike in year 2010 and 2011 respectively.
edwin32us
post Nov 16 2012, 09:52 PM

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Indicators
1 ) Trendline - below the downtrend line .. ( Bearish )
2) Support/Resistance - Formed lower low and lower high ( Bearish )
3) MACD -Bearish Crossover ( Bearish ) . Awaiting for 4R1G signal
4) RSI - Broken below 30% (Bearish) ,
5) STO - Broke below 20% and bearish crossover (Bearish)
6) Ichimoku - a) Price coming entering from the support cloud (Bearish).
b) Conversion line below the base line (Bearish).
c) Price close below the baseline ( Bearish) .
7) Candlestick pattern - Black Candle (Bearish).
8) Market Sentiment - Negative from USA 600B Fiscal Worries Refer link



Conclusion:
Bearish
Yesterday it closed with a spinning top on the support line. It is a 50 - 50 whether it will rebound or break below the support line..

Resistance- 12716 / 12794 / 12964 / 13057 / 13134 / 13335 / 13583
Support - 12531 / 12314 / 12237 / 11757 / 11649


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