When is the USA turns? Perhaps, after the finalized of fiscal cliff and major rating agency are not convincing abt it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49892075

Cover calls or Puts?

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Added on November 20, 2012, 9:45 amThe rating agency.. has no credibility.
Look at S&P action last year, they downgraded US.. initially tanked. after that rallied 200+.

As long as Uncle Ben has his finger on the money machines... nothing can stop him except Obama.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 20 2012, 09:45 AM

Agreed. Who cares about rating agency anymore.

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Added on November 20, 2012, 11:49 amGreat to have a "floor plan" now.

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 20 2012, 11:49 AM

Credibility or vice-versa of Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P, Fitch)==> not important or
big deal for small investor like me, BUT major hedge fund mgrs/investors
may looks FEAR and want to sell drastically to lock profits / cut losses
for more obstacles.

That's come the OPPORTUNITY and fear Gauge for small investor to pick it at good
BARGAIN HUNTING.. All the best.

Moody just downgrade France from AAA to AAA-.. one notch.
Let see how the market reacts... I bet nothing much.
It's all technical now that it's over that 200ma and US congress in recess until after Turkey day holiday.

Got 25-30 days to ride up, try get as much as possible.. then pause and wait, before the big kaboom.

Recession will be affect stock market as well, as USA's Congress and White House
will cut Budget spending and hike taxes.. Hence Ppls will reluctant to spend, and GDP/Big Companies Earnings will slump..

Expects poor companies Earnings, as ppls will save more $$$ and spend less..

bear spread =P
hmmm IMHO i still have a bearish view on the econs~mayb a bounce for now but will still come down~

Hpq 11.50

Last year still 20++

This post has been edited by Myoswee: Nov 20 2012, 10:34 PM

( Source CNBC.COM ==>>> http://www.cnbc.com/id/49898014 ) Negative outlook for 1st 3qrtrs in year 2013??
Just for reference and sharing purpose.

Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario: Major Recession in 2013

The global economy is likely to be stuck in the “twilight zone” of sluggish growth in 2013, Morgan Stanley has warned, but if policymakers fail to act, it could get a lot worse.

The bank’s economics team forecasts a full-blown recession next year, under a pessimistic scenario, with global gross domestic product (GDP) likely to plunge 2 percent.

“More than ever, the economic outlook hinges upon the actions taken or not taken by governments and central banks,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Under the bank’s more gloomy scenario, the U.S. would go over the “fiscal cliff” leading to a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first three quarters of 2013. In Europe, the bank’s pessimistic scenario assumes a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in cutting rates and a delay of its bond-buying program.

But the bank says investors should also be nimble, in case policy action is “convincing and decisive,” leading to a big uptick in growth.

“Importantly, investors should keep an open mind and be prepared to switch between the scenarios as policy developments unfold.”

The bank’s most optimistic scenario forecasts GDP growth of 4 percent in 2012 compared to around 3.1 percent this year.

Morgan Stanley isn’t alone in warning about a recession next year. Noted bear, Nouriel Roubini warned on Monday that certain key developments would exacerbate the downside risks to global growth in 2013.

“Until now, the recessionary fiscal drag has been concentrated in the euro zone periphery and the U.K.. But now it is permeating the euro zone’s core,” Roubini wrote. “And in the U.S., even if President Barack Obama and the Republicans in Congress agree on a budget plan that avoids the looming “fiscal cliff,” spending cuts and tax increases will invariably lead to some drag on growth in 2013 – at least 1 percent of GDP.”

Roubini said the rally in global markets that begun in July was now running out of steam as global growth slows and valuations look stretched.

“Price/earnings ratios are now high, while growth in earnings per share is slackening, and will be subject to further negative surprises as growth and inflation remain low. With uncertainty, volatility, and tail risks on the rise again, the correction could accelerate quickly.”

Early part of Jan-Feb last year, I remember trading it around 40'ish.. once it broke below 50ma,
I never look back. Horrible earnings indeed. HPQ needs another new shakeup..
Perhaps get rid of Meg.

Technical Chart Analysis = Hypothesis ??

Academics's Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is inconsistent with the weak form of the efficient-market hypothesis. Users hold that even if technical analysis cannot predict the future, it helps to identify trading opportunities. In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis discipline used for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. Stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.

For further information on above quote, click ===>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis E.g MACD, RSI, Elliott wave, Fibonacci, Stochastic oscillator ..etc

I think, the real HEALTH of the companies are the qrtrly financial statements/earnings reporting or financial ratios like current/debt/quick ratio, EPS, PEG, ROA, EV/EBITDA, ROE, P/E, ..etc..etc http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_ratio

All the best.

A small pull back tonight.. but everything being bought up and holding.

Market not pulling back much.. so hang on to those longs at least till Friday.

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Added on November 20, 2012, 11:49 pmAAPL still holding up strong.
I'm selling the AAPL 550-540 puts spread.. expiring this Friday to get a few hundreds of pocket money first.

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Added on November 21, 2012, 1:02 amUh huh... Uncle Ben about to speak.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 21 2012, 01:02 AM

begins dropping...

Still holding up good.. most traders left for long weekend holidays. US congressman also shut down - everyone eating turkey at home.

Left machines on to do auto-trading. So, I don't expect much volatility unless big news come out from outside US that will affect market.

One more trading day left to collect holiday money for this weekend. US folks going on holiday, my call center also shutdown starting tomorrow night.

Your recent profit should afford to order one turkey for each of your family members.

Apple: Faded, But Not a Black Hole for Market.

"There are rumblings of disappointment over the iPhone 5, but it's selling briskly"

Again, Apple is propped up by sheeple. If the sheeple ever wise up, then purely in investment terms, Apple is a house of cards

Just log back in to check on short trading day tonight.. looks
like all my short AAPL 550 puts all shrunk into 1c/2c territory. Nice!

Now, I get to keep my cash..

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Added on November 24, 2012, 1:10 amTrue.. but I'm not holding my breath either.. just trade 'em as it goes up, as it goes down, hit 'em with a hammer.
Take money from this fruit monster at both directions.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 24 2012, 01:10 AM

market rally like mad today.

There you go.. got a pull back tonight but AAPL staying strong.
So, either continue to go long or short the bear side.

This week play range: 560-585

Any one got a good volatile stock to play?

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 26 2012, 11:58 PM

My take that buah epal will be nearing $595, so the range will be $545-595$