QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 24 2011, 09:33 PM)
oz all the Taikors start the buying spree quietly without sharing more due to scarcity of quality properties ..kekekekeke..check the CLASSIFIED
maybe selling spree?!!
Are property prices going to up further? V3
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Jul 24 2011, 09:37 PM
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#21
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Jul 24 2011, 09:41 PM
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#22
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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 24 2011, 08:56 PM) be careful that CHERROY the moderator will say again this (lowyat forum - property talk) is not a news thread and delete your efforts here....wakakaka.... moderators need to do that. lyn is a heavy user forum. if people post anything any length they like, admin need to pay and pay to incr bytes.part of housekeeping - keep the house neat and tidy, lyn can go on forvever. |
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Jul 24 2011, 09:44 PM
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#23
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Jul 24 2011, 09:50 PM
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#24
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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 24 2011, 09:41 PM) that's why dun simply "quote" other people's pics and post one line like "i agree" - dem annoying.Added on July 24, 2011, 9:52 pm QUOTE(cranx @ Jul 24 2011, 09:46 PM) becos auntie/uncles are baby boom 50's gen, retiring, worked hard and save for their kids b4 maresia became special species world. kids who want own house by 25th b-day!This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 24 2011, 09:52 PM |
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Jul 25 2011, 11:34 AM
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#25
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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jul 25 2011, 08:59 AM) it is very true. after investors bought few residential prop, they find troublesome to manage them and start to buy shops coz it is easier to manage. I am one of them , hehe. so i foresee residential will be slower while shops will be very very hot. now investors are not buying 1-2 shops but 5-10 shops in one go, eg those successful bizman. (they used to buy 10-20 residence prop in one go). now i hardly find any good new shops to buy. Coz i dun have the power to nego with developers to buy 5-10 units. (oni managed to buy subsale recently, sigh) sholots - only for for deep pockets. lots of vacant ones for years all over kv, owners just keep. subsale proven rentals won;t come cheap.also many gerai-gerai will move to shops eventually.. noticed msia is the onli country that allowed so many gerai2 (even at parking lots, road divider, road side, kaki lima, under tree etc). i never see this in HK, China, Singapore, Korea, Japan, Taiwan etc. spending power of people rising or falling? this fresh article does not bode well for retailers; many seem to eating at home, shopping less: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...r-rising-costs/ gerais... quite true... because the weather permits it, and lesen lords permit it. stagnant incomes is main explanation why maresia can't get out of this to join sg-hk-korea but stuck or regress to cambodia-vietnam-indon style. |
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Jul 26 2011, 05:54 PM
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#26
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QUOTE(GangHo @ Jul 26 2011, 04:48 PM) There is simply very little risk or even no risk for the developer to have any launching. good description! History tells us that developer only goes into trouble when they never manage their cash flow well especially when the money earned are used to buy even more land for further development. With the current ballooning property price, the developer would be able to cover their initial land cost and development cost easily even if their property are not fully sold. As far as balance sheet is concerned, it will always be positive for individual development. The way the developer could lose money is due to the drop in company share prices and if their fundamental is strong and prudent, they should be able to sustain. However, the biggest risk taker is actually the purchaser and when any problem strikes, the purchaser is the one that suffers the most. I do not think that the number of new launching and its prices could be taken as an indicator especially to show that the property market is healthy. And again the history tells us that all crashes are preceded by heavy purchases. It is my believe that our property market would be more affected by regional market performance and global condition rather than the local situation because our national GDP is simply too small for our country not to be affected when the globe coughs. now, what happens when prop demand slows in the face of new prices too high, ample subsale supply and debt levels reach max for majority of investors? developers will be forced to slow or stop launching. that's when their cashflow gets hit. those with healthy balance sheets and a good landbank can go on - sell land, swaps, leasing, etc. those with crap balance sheets, weak cashflow and high debt/equity ratio made continuously worse by dwindling stock price will come under severe strain. that's when some of them will be forced to abandon projects or get acquired by some other biggie. or bailout by gomen with taxpayer's money. affected prop buyers, esp housebuyers with epf money will be the ultimate and biggest losers. we've seen all these, no? This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 26 2011, 06:11 PM |
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Jul 26 2011, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 26 2011, 08:28 PM) KL property may enter uncertain patch says DTZ By Lee Wei LianJuly 26, 2011 While Malaysia does not have a housing affordability index, a rough calculation shows the average price of a KL residential property is now about RM485,000, or roughly nine times the average urban household annual income of RM54,000 and a possible sign that the market is experiencing a bubble. The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey rates markets whose property prices are 5.1 times median income or more, as “severely unaffordable”. Long article, but pls do not miss that part! This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 26 2011, 08:50 PM |
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Jul 27 2011, 01:46 PM
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QUOTE(super911 @ Jul 27 2011, 01:36 PM) If QE3 materialized, inflation will be even higher. Price of commodities will skyrocket, including house. Bnm will raise rates, it will make owning a house even more difficult. the notion of qe1-2-3, incr money supply, too much cash chasing too few goods, inflation and therefore prices keep going up... can only be correct up to a point. there is also a parallel thing happening - high inflation is a precursor to a recession followed by price corrections as demand drops drastically for a period. then comes recovery, new cycle begins.when your pocket does not permit it, can't afford a good pizza, how to pay more rent or buy new pricey house? dun misss this impt part too of that article! we got lots of new malls coming - shop till you drop or drop some shopping? QUOTE KL property may enter uncertain patch says DTZ By Lee Wei LianJuly 26, 2011 The retail market meanwhile is expected to be impacted from more sluggish consumer sentiment as high inflation eats away at household disposable income. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 27 2011, 01:56 PM |
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Jul 31 2011, 11:46 PM
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#29
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can expect no default, raise debt ceiling to buy some time, deep cuts in budget.
possibility remains credit rating downgraded, rates go up, consumption reduced, import less, global trade slows. this flu will have some effect on all trading partners. not possible usa or mareasia or anybody can keep borrowing and consume forever. let's just hope this flu will not develop into pneumonia too quickly to allow the prop party here to go on a bit longer, "soft landing". This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 1 2011, 12:04 AM |
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Aug 3 2011, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(dlyw1103 @ Aug 3 2011, 03:43 PM) “Strong wage growth and positive retail sentiment have boosted retail spending and real estate fundamentals in Kuala Lumpur,” he said. lovely assessment... my wages little growth. and today, my usual chicken horfun stall at an eatery in sunway bungkus due to poor buisness from the working class whose wages probably also little growth. eat less buy more props? This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 3 2011, 03:53 PM |
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Aug 5 2011, 01:19 AM
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#31
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keep an eye on the us and european stock markets.
the debt crises in usa, italy and spain has triggered a massive selloff in both continents. if it becomes full blown, bolehsia will not be spared. as the western countries go on austerity measures, local exports will decline. biz will slow, jobs may be lost. "our props cheaper than x or y" and "we're different" will not hold water anymore. |
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Aug 5 2011, 11:30 AM
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#32
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Aug 5 2011, 03:49 PM
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#33
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QUOTE(sampool @ Aug 5 2011, 03:39 PM) This senario will take at least 2 years to complete STARTED NOW and repeated from times to times over years. it'll be faster this time as info and $ move around the globe at much faster pace today. for props, i would be less concerned with major developers with a strong balance sheet, fair to well established areas. even less concerned if buying for own stay. most vulnerable will be weak unknown developers in brand new areas. esp those that sell with high grr and/or shopping malls. some will delay, some will abandon, some might not even start. tmrw, gomen will say all is fine, dun worry, inflation low, we're different, we're special... vote @#$% This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 5 2011, 03:53 PM |
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Aug 6 2011, 01:36 PM
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QUOTE(lucerne @ Aug 6 2011, 10:47 AM) i think govt will go all out to support the prop market coz govt or their cronies still have lot of landbank to sell to private sectors to earn more $. if the land price x5, their income will be x5 too. (govt no $ liao). this is correct to the extent that gomen can create money with a stroke of a pen - gazzette, convert and sell cheap agri land as residential or commerical land. the price is usually very cheap for first buyer, then goes higher as it change hands. the main issue is whether this land can become valuable or not. can some developer turn it into a gem, where will it find the actual funding, who will pay for anything built? can the people afford to buy into it? can it bring biz and more investors? take example the pkfz case - from nothing, the wasteland caused billions to roll, incl taxpayers money. some got rich, some on trial. in reality, the asset is worthless, in desolation, rotting away. land = money doesn't aways work the way it should, esp in bolehsia. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 6 2011, 01:41 PM |
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Aug 8 2011, 12:03 PM
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#35
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QUOTE Industry players are bracing for the impact of the US and Europe debt debacles PETALING JAYA: The outlook of the property market is mixed, with developers reporting firm sales while property agents report tell-tale signs of a slowdown in certain market segments. this is why always read those reviews with a big pinch of salt. at worst, like politicians - saying things only to their benefit. just a week ago, good-good, now mixed. if more turmoil in europe/usa, they'll say bad-bad? as if they were sleeping all these time and not aware of the troubles brewing... |
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Aug 8 2011, 04:37 PM
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#36
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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Aug 8 2011, 03:59 PM) bursa red at midday. I wonder whether this is just a temporary thing or will it continue. What we do know is the gov's of the world, are trying to reassure people that things will become better. if it is the double dip they say in usa like they've been saying for months, the dip can go another 6m, manybe another 15% down. i wouldn't do anything with the assumption it'll be bright and sunny tmrw. becos the problems aren't going away anytime soon, no major solutions in sight. those quantitive easing, gomens buying back bonds only serve to postpone inevitable - the western world has overspent and overborrrowed. current turmoil is just a confirmation of the underlying problems, no nation spared. end of it all, some will be forced to default, others lose, everyone's poorer. bolehsia's problems not going anywhere also. announcement of lrt/mrt, groups fighting over contracts will grow gdp, incr income? bolehsia is not all that different. if you look at the gomen and household debt as %gdp, bloehsia figs are looking like spain and italy! if gdp not growing fast, how long can debt, car and prop bbb go on? first shot fired: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...s-gdp-forecast/ This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 8 2011, 04:42 PM |
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Aug 8 2011, 08:52 PM
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#37
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QUOTE(debtismoney @ Aug 8 2011, 08:28 PM) Take it this way, GOLD is money that the central banks can't dilute, they can't print GOLD, can't they? In this tough time ahead, GOLD should be a very good inflation hedge. All cash holders will lose a lot of their purchasing power, the only way the Eurozone/US to get out of the debt hole, is to devalue their currency in order to lower their debt load. right, they can't print or make gold!gold has been the haven for the last 3-4 yrs, worldwide. from <usd1000 per troy oz to >1700. up 3% today which tells us usd will go down again. our gomen will clap hands n say rm very strong, very special - dunno what people will believe that. gold is up because everyone expected and still expect usd to go down. despite lower usd, gold's return has been incredible. gold will continue to do well - there is only silver to compete with it. props has done very well in most places, will do well in places short of props. usa, bolehsia, shortage or not? just count the launches for condos, sohos, offices, shoplots and malls! |
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Aug 9 2011, 01:36 AM
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#38
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QUOTE There is always a pattern buyers can detect before the actual property price cycle going down, that is developers will give more freebies (or even discounts) for new launches. Anyone detect this sign in the market now? I guess I don't see this sign in the market, not in Klang Valley at least. gud question, this... even if this is it, prop prices not gonna be slide immediately. the last time dow went from 14000 to 7000, it was >1/2 year. i would think some signs might be: .slow down of new launches, esp >800k (or maybe 500k?) .more reports of lackluster takeup rate of new launches .developer new launches little or no price incr and with more freebies .freehold houses takeup rate decline (they are traditionally the most resilient type) .reduction of subsale transactions (data hard to find, maybe can check more agents) again, some prop types, some areas will be affected first and more than others. we'll see... i think not so soon. maybe in 3m time. we'll still be here... |
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Aug 9 2011, 11:03 AM
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#39
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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Aug 9 2011, 10:54 AM) dun worry - actually I think majority understood you. in any free economic market activity with bulls and bears, there are alway conservatives, moderates and eternal optimists. no right, no wrong until the result is seen. not about egos because any single indidivual is powerless against the total. it's about sharing of analyzed and articulated thoughts. if one can pick up something useful for the next decision, the discussion would have served a purpose. |
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Aug 9 2011, 12:13 PM
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#40
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QUOTE(nkhong @ Aug 9 2011, 11:24 AM) I meant had bought a house without having to worry whether prices will continue to rise or fall. Worst case scenario being that market will fall, and my taman in the outskirts may turn into a ghost town. But that had been part of my consideration which I will accept and live with. I am at the mercy of speculators, either way I lose. if the new taman you bought into becomes ghost town, it means that project was heavily speculated, not so gud developer. which is why it's been said many times that low price does not always = good buy as the risks are built into the price. but we know, in a speculative bbb mode, one tends to see certain things and not the rest. anyway. too early to say about yr taman, no? |
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