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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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AVFAN
post Sep 12 2011, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(tchtax @ Sep 12 2011, 01:03 PM)
I think we will definitely be affected with the incoming slowdown (I still believe the world will be heading towards a recession. Sorry guys).

no need to be sorry... 90% people are aware.
i think the argument is not about whether the world will go into recession soon or not but whether bolehland is special enough to see prop prices keep going up.
i think not, but as you can see, many think it can and will.


AVFAN
post Sep 14 2011, 12:52 AM

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QUOTE
Malaysian govt to consider limiting home purchases
Sep 13, 2011 - HomeGuru.com.my

The Malaysian government may impose a one-house-per-individual restriction, according to Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Minister of Domestic Trade Cooperatives and Consumerism.

tmrw, he'll deny it, say people twisted his words, etc... bolehpolitikus like to get attention this way. ignore...

AVFAN
post Sep 19 2011, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE
They included staff of the developers and their subsidiary companies, shareholders as well as support staff such as lawyers, architects and bankers, he added.

“It is not illegal as it is merely the registration of potential buyers with no payments being made at all,” Chang said.

been going on forever.
sure, that is not illegal, so is selling the booking for undertable money.
everybody knows who are the big time "speculators" are. discount some more


QUOTE
Real Estate and Housing Develo­pers Association Malaysia (Rehda) president Datuk Seri Michael Yam acknowledged that developers, at times, gave the opportunity to their regular buyers to obtain prime lots.

“Unfortunately, in any given block a buyer has only a one in five chance of getting a prime unit such as the end lot,” he said.

Yam said developers who were responsible and adhered to good corporate practice would open up the sale of all units in their projects to the public.

“I don’t think developers would be holding the prime lots for their own people and employees as this would require them to give rebates on the property price,” he said, adding that it would also not be financially viable for the developers as it would lessen their cash flow.

Yam said generally, sales should be based on a first-come-first-serve basis, with developers offering units to those who paid first.

He said if the allegations were true, it was not a nice way of marketing property.

this man is ??? - everyone knows some projects >50% taken before open to public, many with discount.

which is why it is such a bad deal now to buy at high price, no discount and non-choice units. is this bolehland only or worldwide?
AVFAN
post Sep 20 2011, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(nelsontan_8383 @ Sep 20 2011, 09:38 PM)

2 things caught my attention in that page:

QUOTE
The Complete Guide To The Oncoming Spanish Debt Crisis That Everyone Is Terrified Of
1/18
Property Boom: Spain experienced a property boom larger than the US and UK
This property boom saw the price of Spanish real estate rise 80% from 1990 to 2009.
This was due to similar reasons as those for the US and UK booms: relatively low interest rates and an easy credit environment.
Source: The Economist

80% in 19 yrs? bolehsia had >100% in 2 yrs!!

from pigs to piigs - italy now joins this group of hutang besar nations.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 20 2011, 09:59 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 25 2011, 10:54 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Sep 25 2011, 10:09 PM)
bro, i think will be otherwise. Unlike CN, MY do not depend that much on US. We are more dependant on our neighbours, JP and a couple of middle east countries. Unlike CN, their factory are mostly supplying to the US market. Wall Mart itself is one of the biggest contributor to CN Factory industry.
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Main export partners
Singapore 13.9%, China 12.2%, United States 10.9%, Japan 9.8%, Thailand 5.4%, Hong Kong 5.2% (2009 est.)
Main import partners
China 13.9%, Japan 12.5%, Singapore 11.1%, Thailand 6%, Indonesia 5.3%, South Korea 4.6%, Taiwan 4.2%, Germany 4.2% (2009 est.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia
my trade with mideast n latin america is low.
singapore, china, japan all rely on usa market.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 25 2011, 11:04 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2011, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(RTC @ Sep 30 2011, 10:33 AM)
Want to buy properties in this current market and still be able to make money? click to find out more for today's deal NOW

http://www.freemen.com.my/propertybubble.htm
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seminar price dropped from rm757 to rm57. bubble has indeed blown!! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2011, 06:06 PM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ Sep 30 2011, 03:25 PM)
Flippers are still buying within their mean as long as their financial statement showed to the bank is REAL. You can flip as long as your income can support you to do so.

The one that cause the family debt ratio so high are those playing with cash flow way aka Robert Rich Dad way. They use tenancy agreement as income prove to loan more. Those with income of 3k to 5k can loan up to 1M or more. Some legends here already exceed 2M with this method.

Even with tenancy agreeement accepted as source of income, I dont think the banks are strictly follow their 1/3 monthly income rules. When bank officers dont follow rules, thats worry me. Remember how subprime happened when loan agent didnt follow rules.
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man, you aint see nothing yet. 1/3? it has been 3/4!
and i have seen someone swiping 3 credit cards to pay for a unit's dwnpmt.
another one rush apply new cards pay for another.

when maybank ceo wahid talks in public about the need to clampdown on cards and personal loan, you know it is very serious:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...-maybank-chief/

can deny forever... bolehsians and rich and fine - like greece....
AVFAN
post Oct 11 2011, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(Gary1981 @ Oct 11 2011, 10:52 PM)
I was told money is just a paper, the bank value is determine by the GOLD reserved. I just feel that our government sudden boost a lot of mega projects is abit scary..where the money comes from???
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there is no more gold reserve. used long time ago, discarded. that's why every gomen incl usa can keep issuing new money, to keep spending - at the expense of declining currency value relative to the other currencies and inflation.

gomen has little cash to spend on those mega projects. they are mostly funded by borrowings, i.e. bonds - can be sukuks sold to investors in dubai or others bonds in new york or shanghai, and bonds sold to epf.

gomen spending is not very different from individual - if you keep borrowing and spending without a good return, one day you go broke and no one wants to lend you anymore. Just hope for someone or some banks to bail you out for a price with conditions. greece is going thru that now.
AVFAN
post Oct 12 2011, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(elawrenceong @ Oct 12 2011, 10:01 AM)
My dear ...anyway my gov has revenue/income besides borrowings...they get income through taxes, input from Petronas, etc.. Anyhow, the budget 2012 is a 'budget'..When soon they find out less income/less input from Petronas, they've to revise their plan or on hold some of the mega projects...So far, our country deficit is 4.7% as reported. Compared with GREECE...It's still far away ?

So, no point for you to feel scary at this point... nod.gif
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there are lots of articles by local and foreign media, debates incl parliament on the health of the economy, growing budget deficits, gomen and household debt levels, so no need to dwell further here.

clearly, you have bought into putrajaya's rosy story, but not me. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 12 2011, 01:39 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 13 2011, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 13 2011, 09:26 AM)
since some advocate fall of paper money, so better the borrow (prop loan) as much as u can and pay peanut later. enjoy life first with your CASH.
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that's precisely what the icelanders and greeks did - don't save, borrow, spend, speculate.
the life will surely be colorful. the children and grandchildren will pay for it.
AVFAN
post Oct 13 2011, 07:59 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 13 2011, 07:53 PM)
so for those without children can continue to spend,  dont care the country to collasp or not..
there are thousands of rich ppl in iceland, greek still enjoy colorful life . same as USA, country broke but still lot of millionaire/billionaire. i dun think they own child/grand child will suffer ..
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that is 100% true, same in my. for every 1 that gets rich and gets away, 100 will suffer later. depends on which side you're on.
AVFAN
post Oct 18 2011, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Oct 18 2011, 12:02 PM)
But take a look at the younger generation. Their financial outlook just like the Americans, Europeans.

That is what Lee Kuan Yew very worry about.

that is more true than not, imo.
low productivity and incr debt is what is plaquing many nations.
bolehsia's national debt at 51% gdp now, the law will need amendment when it hits 55%:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ng-warns-anwar/
one can argue 70% is still fine since usa is at 100% and took greece at 180% to see riots on the streets.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 18 2011, 12:18 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 24 2011, 08:15 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Oct 24 2011, 04:40 PM)
What facts again? all these are commentary only. LOL

the fact is no downturn / discount for property value.  nod.gif
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there are 4 types of "facts":

1. facts from developer assoc head (what's his name again??), crony developers and menteris
2. facts from hba, other developers and analysts (like this one in discussion)
3. facts from lyn forummers biggrin.gif
4. the real facts - which few know or wanna know.

take yr pick. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 24 2011, 08:16 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 31 2011, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Oct 31 2011, 09:43 AM)
Dont just listen to all what bankers and the central banks are saying. Are you 100% sure there's no subprime in M'sia? all these subprime blaming news only came out AFTER the market collapsed. people are good at pointing fingers but never learn from experience, that's why technical analysis works, history repeats itself.

What i am saying is that kampung people's savings were also taken into consideration in the calculation of the AVERAGE Msian saving rate and i don't deny the fact that they are Rich speculators around us, but many are not as well. We just need a single digit default to have the prices fall.  wink.gif
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i agree with this, actually knowing many who borrowed way out of line. banks were very relaxed 2-3 yrs ago, less so now.

bolehsians savings rate high... bank negara and gomen surely sells this, no problem, can take more debt. savings rate WAS high, but may have become somewhat of a myth now. not so high anymore as wages stagnated and spending/borrowing increased. if bolehsians are such great savers, there wouldn't be such a dramatic increase in household debt in the last decade. read:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/breakin....mohamed-idris/

before iceland, ireland, greece, spain, usa (and others) got into their prop crashes, all those gomens and the people believed they are different, careful, prudent, clever - will never crash. won't be that different here. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 31 2011, 10:05 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 31 2011, 07:34 PM

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QUOTE(yeowa @ Oct 31 2011, 04:19 PM)
eternal optimists will tell you we're different, we're special, cheaper than tokyo, hk, spore, shanghai, buy now!
but never compare to cambodia, bangladesh or dominican republic.
seriously, without such thinking, how can there be any burst in anything anywhere?

then again, which "facts" you wanna belive in? lyn forummer facts, menteri facts or others?
since last year, so many dev promise a mall and office space for every new project.
still buy that? who's renting them? who's shopping there? illegals?

some are being f'ed bad, just dunno or keep quiet onli.
only the cronies and special species byuing with discount, early and choice units will not get burned.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 31 2011, 07:56 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 2 2011, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(nkhong @ Nov 2 2011, 09:53 AM)
Owning a home is not easy in Beijing and shanghai becoz of very very high price. These people are working very very hard and finally can afford to bought a house after alot of sacrifices and sweats, just not long after they bought the house developer drop the price by 20-30%, that is how many years of their saving. imagine u were in their shoe, i think i will throw a bomb to developer office or gomen if i got one in my hand smile.gif
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same in kv. to many genuine housebuyers, their money is hard earned.
many folks saved for years only finding themselves paying 50% more in the end in the last 2 yrs.

we now know some developers in china have dropped 20-30% in price for new phases.
unlikely we'll see that range in kv, but 5-10% is possible, imo.
we wait and see if there will be a "next cheaper phase" by any developer.
then we'll see if the earlier buyers will go threw bad eggs or bananas at dev.
or in lyn threads!
AVFAN
post Nov 2 2011, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinfixx @ Nov 2 2011, 02:23 PM)
2012 will be a spectacular year.
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the year country goes bankrupt? not so soon, i hope.
seriously, that word is coming out more frequently now, and it's not about greece.

QUOTE
Malaysia could still face bankruptcy, Idris Jala warns
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ris-jala-warns/

Pakatan: GST won’t save Malaysia from bankruptcy
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...rom-bankruptcy/



AVFAN
post Nov 2 2011, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Nov 2 2011, 08:48 PM)
If they keep printing more and more money what will it lead to? Money value going down la! When money value going down what happen? Price of goods will shoot up la same goes to homes and properties. Such simple logic you can't think striaght?

this is only correct to an extent. not quite as simple as you put it.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 2 2011, 09:39 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 2 2011, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 2 2011, 05:26 PM)
I don't deny property price is stretching and furthermore, but there are people that are rich enough and have decent earning, and with collateral to get a loan out of it to buy the properties.
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 2 2011, 05:42 PM)
We cannot look at ourself situation, or just something around us to judge, hey most people cannot afford a 700k loan because most are earning 3-5k.   smile.gif
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herein lies the contention.
are most people having good enough income now to pay for homes at current prices?
that's why there are debt ratios, home prices/income ratios, gdp per capita vs home prices, etc. - early warnings.
the "facts" are all there, subject to interpretation. heck, even parliament is now furiously debating if debt levels are too high or not high at all.
it's the same thing on the broader subject of how healthy is my's economy. some say good, some say it's doomed.
one can argue till green in the face... just take a stand and abide by "live by the sword, die by the sword". tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 2 2011, 09:41 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 2 2011, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Nov 2 2011, 10:57 PM)
at the same time, property price is still heading up.

you sure about this?
maybe true for new from developer. how are they selling?
subsale transacted, i think stagnant.

ok, here we go again. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 2 2011, 11:04 PM

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