QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jan 30 2010, 02:14 AM)
look, its back up again - have a fun time at the beach & wear a rubber duckie when swimming, must play safe 
US stock discussion v2
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 Jan 30 2010, 02:22 AM
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Junior Member
131 posts Joined: Sep 2008 
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look, its back up again - have a fun time at the beach & wear a rubber duckie when swimming, must play safe |
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Jan 30 2010, 02:32 AM
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All Stars
10,124 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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QUOTE(honglun @ Jan 30 2010, 02:22 AM) I'm still suspecting it's a dead cat bounce. Sold half my holdings of BRK.B to add liquidity to my portfolio. Same here, unloaded @ 77.50 for profits for now.  Market is weakening..Dollar is spiking like crazy! Dollar not done going back up yet.. Update: 4:15am Dow 10065 -55 Nasdaq 2142 -35 S&P 500 1073-10 The bears are in control. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 30 2010, 04:18 AM |
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Jan 30 2010, 05:25 AM
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Junior Member
53 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Nearby 
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wah, surprising, wake up and see end in red. ~_~
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Jan 30 2010, 05:35 AM
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All Stars
10,124 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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Closing update
Dow 10067.33 -53.13 -0.52% Nasdaq 2147.35 -31.65 -1.45% S&P 500 1073.87 -10.66 -0.98% Two fake reversals, looks like this market is slowly drifting on its kneels.. with its head bow, ready to be chopped off. Obama orders didn't work, Ben magic didn't work, GDP numbers didn't work. The only thing working is the Dollar strength and it is making a comeback. The trap door has opened. I can see 9700 below. The MM are in control. They want to see -1000 points from the top, they may get it by next week. P.S. 'C'itibank fans - you gotta love this because so far, it hasn't disappoint. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 30 2010, 06:03 AM |
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Jan 30 2010, 07:00 AM
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Senior Member
1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid
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base on observation gathered from here, since everything status quo ie. interest rate low, teori buy the dip should stil be in play
anyone heard abt teori, 'bear jump out of window'  hope to show u all in real time nex week (buffet says, be greedy when all fear) wat other news is out there, tat send bear team 1 family & relatives to pay us a visit? FA sifus, can advise next step &  anyway, time is soon for closing short positions, fear will drive the options pricing bonkers... TA teori says, by the time the news come out in a few weeks or months time, its alredi too late liao, izit true? watch & see it live no offense but nothing beats 'ignorance is bliss' like a nice dose of reality  aiyo, those FA did not set up bull altar nor pray hard enuf... they all went to sleep &on a friday nite  my louyah analyst report  U.S. Stocks Reverse Lower 4:15 p.m. Update: Stocks fell for a second straight session Friday after an early rally petered out. The Nasdaq tumbled 1.5%, up from a 1.8% deficit. The NYSE composite shed 1.1%, S&P 500 1% and Dow 0.5%. Tech-related groups tumbled. Software, data storage, computer makers and chip groups all got hit. Homebuilders and nursing-home operators bucked the trend. Volume climbed across the board. p/s: of coz 95% forumers really wish the short squeeze would kill me off  but I do not have power over the market, jus act base on simple TAthose who had follow & lighten position or alredi in cash, ensure ur list up to date, with ur own experience, u wil know when to buy again  |
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Jan 30 2010, 07:09 AM
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Junior Member
53 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Nearby
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but these 2 weeks really good experience. need to learn more to ride the wave. XD
i think INTC dividend out soon? not sure how to read that. ~_~ i think it's 15.7c per share. low price now summore. ^^ |
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Jan 30 2010, 07:17 AM
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All Stars
10,124 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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QUOTE(AnonyNite @ Jan 30 2010, 07:09 AM) but these 2 weeks really good experience. need to learn more to ride the wave. XD INTC may dish out div by March 4.At around 3% it isn't much but it would be nice i think INTC dividend out soon? not sure how to read that. ~_~ i think it's 15.7c per share. low price now summore. ^^ if INTC price is below 18 if you got some. Just wondering if you've benefit from INTC div payment in past? This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 30 2010, 07:29 AM |
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Jan 30 2010, 07:49 AM
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Junior Member
53 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Nearby
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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jan 30 2010, 07:17 AM) INTC may dish out div by March 4.At around 3% it isn't much but it would be nice i've seen past years history, it's always in feb. XD hmm, yea, dividend really ain't too much, i'm just testing it out, using dividend as brokerage. ~_~if INTC price is below 18 if you got some. Just wondering if you've benefit from INTC div payment in past? nope, haven't get any dividend before in the past, i just started playing in dec only. |
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Jan 30 2010, 08:45 AM
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Senior Member
1,345 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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Officially the market has turned into bear market.
Last time all bad news end with a rally. Now all good news end with a dip. Next valley should be 9000 or below. There is no US recovery, the 5++% GDP growth is due to government spending on stimulus. GDP = private expenditure + gross investment + public spending + export - import |
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Jan 30 2010, 09:32 AM
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All Stars
10,124 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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QUOTE(AnonyNite @ Jan 30 2010, 07:49 AM) i've seen past years history, it's always in feb. XD hmm, yea, dividend really ain't too much, i'm just testing it out, using dividend as brokerage. ~_~ Ok..but don't be surprise if you notice that they'll withhold 30% if you've filed as non-resident investor. nope, haven't get any dividend before in the past, i just started playing in dec only. |
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Jan 30 2010, 04:43 PM
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Junior Member
131 posts Joined: Sep 2008
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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jan 30 2010, 05:35 AM) [u] Dan, mind explaining why do you say C hasn't disappoint? It's still far below 5$ high and the 4$ hurdle.P.S. 'C'itibank fans - you gotta love this because so far, it hasn't disappoint. |
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Jan 30 2010, 05:31 PM
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Senior Member
900 posts Joined: Dec 2007
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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jan 30 2010, 07:00 AM) base on observation gathered from here, since everything status quo ie. interest rate low, teori buy the dip should stil be in play how do you decide wheather to be "greedy when all fear" or "don't catch a falling knife"?anyone heard abt teori, 'bear jump out of window' hope to show u all in real time nex week (buffet says, be greedy when all fear) wat other news is out there, tat send bear team 1 family & relatives to pay us a visit? FA sifus, can advise next step & anyway, time is soon for closing short positions, fear will drive the options pricing bonkers... TA teori says, by the time the news come out in a few weeks or months time, its alredi too late liao, izit true? watch & see it live no offense but nothing beats 'ignorance is bliss' like a nice dose of reality aiyo, those FA did not set up bull altar nor pray hard enuf... they all went to sleep &on a friday nite my louyah analyst report U.S. Stocks Reverse Lower 4:15 p.m. Update: Stocks fell for a second straight session Friday after an early rally petered out. The Nasdaq tumbled 1.5%, up from a 1.8% deficit. The NYSE composite shed 1.1%, S&P 500 1% and Dow 0.5%. Tech-related groups tumbled. Software, data storage, computer makers and chip groups all got hit. Homebuilders and nursing-home operators bucked the trend. Volume climbed across the board. p/s: of coz 95% forumers really wish the short squeeze would kill me off but I do not have power over the market, jus act base on simple TAthose who had follow & lighten position or alredi in cash, ensure ur list up to date, with ur own experience, u wil know when to buy again when there is a strong downtrend, often the downtrend are fed by mini bulls themselves...to be more precised, bulls that are weak holders, thereby turning bears themselves. As prices fall, there will always be contrarians who think, "ah, time to buy... cheap, buy when dip". However after buying, they see that prices continue to head south... after a while, they think, "oh shit, made a wrong decision.." and then they start selling, taking loses because of fear that they will lose more if they continue to hold. Hence they become the bears. Then the next group of bulls will come in thinking, "ah...time to buy now...really low". But then the bears coming in from earlier group will feed the selling pressure caused by overall bad news, and price continue to head south. After a while the same thing happen to the second group(of course it is not so clear-cut) and they also start selling... thereby causing the prices to spiral down. And when stocks market fall, there is a general mood to spend less causing companies to earn less... and so forth... reflexivity theory kicks in. We also should not forget there are many big players who have interest in falling prices... besides this year is world cup year. huh? well, do a google to see the year returns for world cup years. More often than not, it isn't good. so how sure are you the bottom has been reached for this "mini" reversal? This post has been edited by mindstorm: Jan 30 2010, 05:33 PM |
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Jan 30 2010, 07:10 PM
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Senior Member
1,345 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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I think it is quite straight-forward to see whether it is bull or bear.
For bull: no matter what bad news, the rally will continue. For bear: no matter what good news, the dip will continue. From our observation, the dip will continue very long time (bear), mostly to below 9k points in a month time. Added on January 30, 2010, 7:14 pmAnd one more guess: Why obama eagerly implement this bank restriction regulation? He has the first-hand news that know the current situation of banking system in US. 6 banks already failed in January, expect more to come.. the real bad news might follow obama's new policy.. A lot of people is already playing short, so try not to fall into the trap.. Added on January 30, 2010, 7:18 pmWhen obama said he wanted to limit bank size, what is the implication? perhaps come hidden problem has happened to one of the huge bank? So, now is the time to watch market carefully as anything can happen.. But if you are bull, believe in yourselves... after all, earn or loss is yours... This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jan 30 2010, 07:18 PM |
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Jan 30 2010, 11:12 PM
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All Stars
10,124 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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QUOTE(honglun @ Jan 30 2010, 04:43 PM) Dan, mind explaining why do you say C hasn't disappoint? It's still far below 5$ high and the 4$ hurdle. No, I'm not comparing with the highs.. just look at it relative strength on Friday comparing with the indexes. Considering the majors indexes are diving, The bears were hoping for a gap down to 3.08 or below but instead C popped 2% instead..Therefore, those who bought at lows 3.15 got themselves a good deal for now. If we bounce back up, therefore I say C can touch 3.5 easily (then, I sure they'll take profits here).  Anyway, here's my thoughts on this current pullback. Some people are blaming Obama politics, some are blaming China, some are blaming the earnings outlook or fake govt stimulus spending and without it this market falls to blackhole. Are those really new? Are we so naive to think that we don't already know that majority of the last three quarters rally are caused by govt stimulus plan and its unprecedented money printing and also aggressive companies cutback on operation costs? Has the govt stop printing money? Has the music finally stop? No! No yet, but definitely you can see false start and anxiety of people grabbing for chairs now. Infact, nothing has changed. What has changed is the mood of those investors/traders and there are growing fears for those who bought at the top. For the past week, bottom fishing did not work. Two sucker rally on Mon and Wed, the bulls are indeed very afraid. The group who are in control of the market already thought of this. It so simple. It is much easier to take this market down to 1000 points and make money on the way down than to take the market up another 1000 points from 10700. When it has reached that support level, we're in for bounce of this crazy/lunatic round two of this roller coaster ride before the real big dive. This is the the first shot off the bow to get your attention. Be prepare...  This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 30 2010, 11:44 PM |
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Jan 31 2010, 12:12 AM
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Senior Member
4,030 posts Joined: Apr 2008
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The real story behind it is china's property index which has collapsed from 6000 points to a mere 4000 points as the government tighten its policy regarding real estate, especially residential prices that have increased with such rampant speed.
The fact that China GDP is very dependent on REAL ESTATE currently is scaring foreign investors and the result as you can see is a massive outflow of funds from emerging markets. And if China slows, the rest of the world slows down. FACT.  (Evidence: Look at oil, copper, silver)And i have mentioned this in my previous newsletter to clients, watch out for january, and sure enough january has been a bad month. This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Jan 31 2010, 12:14 AM |
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Jan 31 2010, 03:44 AM
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Senior Member
1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid
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QUOTE(mindstorm @ Jan 30 2010, 05:31 PM) how do you decide wheather to be "greedy when all fear" or "don't catch a falling knife"? time to write a granma review when there is a strong downtrend, often the downtrend are fed by mini bulls themselves...to be more precised, bulls that are weak holders, thereby turning bears themselves. As prices fall, there will always be contrarians who think, "ah, time to buy... cheap, buy when dip". However after buying, they see that prices continue to head south... after a while, they think, "oh shit, made a wrong decision.." and then they start selling, taking loses because of fear that they will lose more if they continue to hold. Hence they become the bears. Then the next group of bulls will come in thinking, "ah...time to buy now...really low". But then the bears coming in from earlier group will feed the selling pressure caused by overall bad news, and price continue to head south. After a while the same thing happen to the second group(of course it is not so clear-cut) and they also start selling... thereby causing the prices to spiral down. And when stocks market fall, there is a general mood to spend less causing companies to earn less... and so forth... reflexivity theory kicks in. We also should not forget there are many big players who have interest in falling prices... besides this year is world cup year. huh? well, do a google to see the year returns for world cup years. More often than not, it isn't good. so how sure are you the bottom has been reached for this "mini" reversal?  ur analogy sounds ok, however most big funds & forever fans retailers r not nimble nor quick enough to cut loss big funds cannot create an exit stampede, they need to sell into strength while shouting bull, tat y we see a ding dong & not straight collapse how many retailers u know wil cut loss? very few do it, most get attach to stocks via dividend, valuation & etc so once the selling accelerate, at some point of time in future, there wil be no one to sell to, tat y there is a teknik call 'swing trade' dunno abt the others, but for me, tis is more of a dark art than a simple black & white teori hmm... world cup years, I learnt not to believe those hype anymore eg. october bear myth, were u in or out of stocks? My job is not to reassure anyone of anything, kindly do ur own dd & I have no idea has the bottom been reached for this "mini" reversal volume is high on down & index seem is gonna hit their 200 dma soon, wil it bounce? I dunno, choose ur side & place ur bet if sector rotation affect real estate & commodity only, y are all sectors taking a tumble  how do you decide wheather to be "greedy when all fear" or "don't catch a falling knife"? there is no clear cut answer to ur question, it is more of a dark art & u get better at it + ur odds increase in proportion to how much sifu market teach u a lesson 'Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - Albert Einstein' as a guideline "greedy when all fear", anything bullish from klse lyn thread, edge, star biz, analyst report are good signs something not right initially, stocks wil go up, but there is no news, if u were able analyse & detect it via FA, tat is good for early entry point now, for 'them' to write positive review, stock could be on uptrend, but since u hav enter earlier via FA, jus ride it those lazy do r&d on own will just follow recommendation, the trick is to sell it after a certain % up & accept fact, tat u can never sell at the highest as a guideline "don't catch a falling knife", the indexes are hitting low after low & volume is high, oso support line is being breach sometimes news is not there or it is conflicting news available for reading, at times volume dun lie, take tat as a clue & it is alwiz too late to short when the fall occurs, might as well wait for a rebound, but tis no garanti either since most TA knows the support & resistance price level, try to set below or above price level, as depending on u buying or shorting "and when stocks market fall, there is a general mood to spend less causing companies to earn less... and so forth... reflexivity theory kicks in" imo, the next one wil be 8-10 yrs later, ensure u have enuf standby reserves & go SAILANG it! when the next cycle cum those old timers wil see opportunity & patiently await selling subside, the new virgins wil see blood & fear look, the investment advisor r starting to be bearish, the followers will follow, jus like how they were slaughter as bull, hav patience 
I wanna join in to comment on the debate between the former & latter thoughts on this current pullback the real & conclusive answer will be clearer & known after 3 months, just like the sub-prime crisis; learn abt cds, swaps & etc at tat time  from an ikan bilis player point of view former newsletter - n/a stock selection:buy & sell price - yup market direction - yup worldwide / alien view - yup prompt feedback for emergency - yup october myth - yup, we were riding sama2 latter newsletter - none, not for our view, maybe clients only stock selection:buy & sell price - none, not for our view, maybe clients only market direction - none, not for our view, maybe clients only worldwide / alien view - only china (sure boh?) prompt feedback for emergency -  october myth - hmm thus for the moment with a point of 5 to 1, have to side with doomcake the final winner wil be decided by sifu market itself  » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
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Feb 1 2010, 07:37 PM
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All Stars
17,021 posts Joined: Jan 2005
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Feb 1 2010, 09:39 PM
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Senior Member
8,510 posts Joined: Dec 2004 From: KayEL
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wow, pre-market data suggest we see a 10,100 again today.
outlook for this week » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « |
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Feb 1 2010, 10:03 PM
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All Stars
10,124 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 1 2010, 07:37 PM) Everything! US Govt is spending big with 1.6T deficit. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 1 2010, 10:04 PM |
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Feb 1 2010, 11:02 PM
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Senior Member
8,510 posts Joined: Dec 2004 From: KayEL
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Great news, breaching 10,150 and long here we come ; 10,200
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